DAQMAN NAPS ANOTHER HENDERSON ACE: Daqman rates another Nicky Henderson novice at Newbury but finds 20.0, 18.0 and 12.5 outsiders in the four Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton Park this evening.
It’s that man again. Nicky Henderson, who landed a double on today’s Newbury card at the corresponding meeting last year, and has 10 winners and eight placed in the last two weeks, should score with Shernando (2.05) first time over hurdles.
The four-time Flat winner for Mark Johnston has been eye-catching on the Lambourn gallops and in his schooling, and is reckoned a decent addition to a hot novice team.
A son of Hernando, who got Graded 3m winner State Of Play, he is out of a full sister to King-George-winning Flat ace, Petoski, and stamina will be his forte, yet he has shown the speed to win on top of the ground at 1m 4f on a tight track (Chester).
4.25 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap) Class 7 and only five previous winners but, as the man said, something has to win it.
That ‘something’ is unlikely to be Querido, Tawseef or Hot Tub for cold-list stables, Aegean King or All About You for their long absences.
CD-winner Very Well Red and Gordy Bee (needed the run last time) should take them along; Lennoxwood and My Mate Les go in the van; Batchworth Blaise will try to come off the pace. The vote goes narrowly to My Mate Les, who seemed to step up, just touched off at Wolver last time.
4.55 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Claiming Stakes) Ralph Beckett has a 20% record at Kempton; his last two runners both won, and his 2012 AW record here and at Lingfield is 131, the two wins both well-backed favourites.
So I don’t need to tell you: watch the market for Green Pearl! He’s done little or nothing but is tongue-tied for the first time today to help him breathe and Jim Crowley returns to the saddle: he’s 100% (2-2) for Beckett at Kempton this season.
Peter Hiatt’s (Tuxedo) is the stable in hottest form: 113310 in the new year, two of the winners favourite, the other 9-4. So, again, watch the market.
I couldn’t fancy cold trainers Ronald Harris (Spinning Ridge) and Philip McBride (Inpursuitoffreedom), and Divine Rule is a long way last on official ratings and has won only a seller. Slam hasn’t won since 2008.
Course-specialist Red Somerset cannot be ignored – he’s four out of six in claimers – but his 12 wins have all come within six weeks of a run (most of them much less) and he hasn’t been out for 91 days.
Marajaa won a similar claimer to today’s in December; then topped that with a handicap win this month in class 4 and has drawn the one stall in this.
Andrew Reid hasn’t won at Kempton for more than two years and the losers have passed 30 but Amethyst Dawn plummets from Listed and class-4 and is the official top rating in the race.
However, he is another needing a run: he has always won within 18 days of a previous race, and his seven successes have all been on turf.
Verdict: Tuxedo (trainer in peak form yet 20.0 as I write) hasn’t won beyond 7f but was third on today’s course over 1m 2f in August, and fourth – beaten less than two lengths – over a mile in the 5.25 on last year’s corresponding card.
Marajaa has two ways of running, from the van or from behind, but both have been successful lately. Watch the market for Green Pearl (18.0). I’ll ‘leave a pound’ on the outsiders.
5.25 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap) They came for Satwa Laird (Jamie Spencer) early doors but David Simcock is missing strike with five placed out of seven; no winners.
Peponi drifted like a dog on a raft, out to 9.6, as I write; placed three times here before without winning; in fact, this entire is still a maiden. John Louis was easy to back, too.
April Fool won here on Thursday and has put back-to-back wins together twice before in a short space of time, one the following day. What can stop him today?
Prince Of Burma drops a grade from class 4 and is blinkered first time, while cheekpieces are introduced on She Ain’t A Saint, who won her maiden here over 7f and has taken a class-4 Lingfield handicap.
Casual Mover won his maiden when fresh but has run stinkers since and may not be in love with the game; Chookie Avon is down from Scotland but has never won beyond 7f; like Community, he may prefer Southwell
I’ll take a bit of She Ain’t A Saint at 12.5 but April Fool looks massive at 7.2, as a horse in form who keeps his form.
5.55 Kempton(Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) This looks a pinstickers’ race, yet the two previous winners have started 9-2 and 10-11 favourite.
If we trust the market again, Mayan Flight was betting leader this morning but there was a strong move for The Catenian early doors. He ran well (denied a clear run) at Lingfield last time and Eoin Doyle travels him over the Irish Sea again.
There’s plenty of CD form: Time To Play staying on fifth; Dolly Colman second; Corlough Moujntain winner three years ago; Asterales fourth; Lucas Pitt winner 2010. But I’m grabbing some 5.7 The Catenian.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.8pts win (nap) SHERNANDO (2.05 Newbury)
BET 3.8pts win MY MATE LES (4.25 Kempton)
BET 1pt win and place on each GREEN PEARL and TUXEDO (4.55 Kempton)
BET 3.2pts win APRIL FOOL and 1.7pts win SHE AIN’T A SAINT (5.25 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win THE CATENIAN (5.55 Kempton)
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