SCOTTISH NATIONAL ABC: TOP MARKS TO HORSES AT 32.0 AND 21.0: Nicky Henderson’s Be There In Five (32.0) and the lightweight Any Currency (21.0) have clear chances on the stats for Saturday’s Scottish Grand National, according to Daqman’s survey.
LIE FORRIT 17.5 AT ONE STAGE: But Daqman is sticking with Lie Forrit (backed to win 30 points at 14.5) who was 17.5 at one time yesterday. Keep your Daq up throughout the day. Daqman’s bets for this afternoon are at the foot of the column.
CHECK OUT THESE STATS: Here are the stats qualifications for the National, run over 4m 1f at Ayr (weights go up 9lb if Junior drops out):
A: 9st 7lb to 10st 9lb is the best weight range (nine out of last 10 winners)
B: You need a winner or placed over 3m 4f or more (nine out of 10)
C: Aged eight to 10 (nine out of 10)
ABC Any Currency Fourth in the NH Chase (4m, 2010) at Cheltenham and third in the London National at Sandown in December, has tried Graded chases in three of his last five runs.
Visored first time in January and beaten a long way last time out, so has to bounce back. At his best on good, good to soft (pulled up on heavy in Welsh National).
ABC Be There In Five Third in NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham last season to Chicago Grey with Beshabar second. Beshabar went on to win the Scottish National but the race seemed to come too quickly for Be There In Five (pulled up).
He did not return to form until the Kim Muir at Cheltenham this March, running seventh behind the winner, Aintree runner-up, Sunnyhillboy. Has to improve again here.
ABC Fredo Pulled up in this race last year after sixth of 24 to Junior in Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Good start to the year when second in Warwick Classic (3m 5f) but again pulled up in Haydock Grand National Trial and well in rear in Kim Muir this time around.
AB Merigo A regular in this race, and back to form last time out on the course. Beat Ballabriggs as a novice and won Eider Chase (2009 heavy) and Scottish National (2010 good).
Narrowly beaten by Beshabar in last season’s renewal off 8lb higher than today, and highly tried since, including Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick.
AB Portrait King Very smart Irish raider out of the first three only once (trip too short) in last five starts, winning the Punchestown National Trial (heavy) in February.
Hit hard by the handicapper but followed up less than three weeks later on different terrain, winning the Eider Chase (good). Penalised only another 3lb.
AC Ikorodu Road Has become a yardstick for his consistency, first and second four times between December and March (raised total of 17lb).
Getting 5lb when beaten a head by Harry The Viking at Doncaster and, returned to the course, received 22lb when defeating Junior in a photo-finish. Work to do with both now at revised weights but a tough customer.
AC King Fontaine Out of the handicap but that’s never a problem in this race. Fine novice career and fifth in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham Festival last season.
Lost his form after 11th of 19 to finish in Ballabriggs’ Grand National. But falls in Peter Marsh and Haydock Park National Trial this year partly, if not entirely, attributable to failing to jump out of heavy ground.
AC Lie Forrit Ayr specialist (2112 hurdles and chase) and form figures outside Graded races of 121111122 with clear round, though inexperienced over fences.
Just three novice chases but winner over hurdles at 3m 2f and rating of 155 put him in line for World Hurdle until a tendon injury. Currently 10lb lower over fences and partnered by Cock o’The North jockey over jumps, Campbell Gillies.
AC Mac Aeda doubtful
AC Mostly Bob Hit chase form at Cheltenham in January (3m 2f), outstaying Mon Mome, Hello Bud and company. But old habit of making mistakes resurfaced in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (15th of 21 to finish).
AC Our Island Out-and-out stayer who got behind in the NH Chase at Cheltenham but had run second in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December. Needs a slog in the mud.
AC Petitfour Stable renowned for stayers is back among the winners with a recent hat-trick launched at Aintree.
Petitfour was at Aintree in 2008-9, winning the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and then running fourth to Big Buck’s in the Liverpool Hurdle. Chase career not so hot and has returned to Graded and handicap hurdles in the last year.
AC Quentin Collonges By same sire as Grands Crus and last week’s National winner, Neptune Collonges. Nowhere near that level in four chases so far, and when tried in Graded hurdles.
A Abbeybraney Good winner at Wetherby but ‘never traveling’ behind Ikorodu Road on sound surface at Doncaster. Needs rain.
A Garleton Two chase wins on the course, both on heavy, and scored on a sound surface at Newcastle last time. Never won off revised mark.
A Lively Baron, Our Island, Rivage d’Or, State Benefit, Vic Venturi
BC Captain Americo Out of the frame only once in 10 completed starts since November 2010 but only one (beginners’) chase win.
Fourth in Scottish Borders National and 14-lengths third to Portrait King and Posh Bird in Eider Chase. Turn-around in weights may not be quite enough.
BC Galaxy Rock Fourth to Junior in last year’s Kim Muir at Cheltenham, and beat Ballyfitz there in November (3m 3f); badly in with that one now. Pulled up Welsh National but fair fourth in Great Yorkshire.
BC Junior Fell at the second in Saturday’s Aintree Grand National, trying for unique three-timer after winning at both Royal Ascot and Cheltenham (2011 Kim Muir). Short-headed in the Grimthorpe, giving 22lb to Ikorodu Road.
BC Posh Bird Won North Yorkshire Grand National (3m 6f) and split Portrait King and Captain Americo in 4m 1f Eider Chase. Now 5lb better for three lengths with the winner but on upgrade since joining Peter Niven (Midlands Grand National came too soon after the Eider).
BC West End Rocker Strong fancy for Saturday’s Aintree Grand National (but fell early) after 22-lengths win in the Becher Chase, first completed start since January 2011. Pulled up in today’s race on good ground last year; needs rain.
B Ballyfitz Yard noted for stayers returned to form recently. So did Ballyfitz, when third in the Midlands Grand National but pulled up in this race last year after Midlands National second. Given a chance by the handicapper.
B Harry The Viking Four in a row (two novice chases), and better off at the weights now despite narrow defeat of Ikorodu Road at Doncaster, but raised 6lb for second in the amateurs’ four-mile NH Chase at Cheltenham. Still only seven.
B Heez A Steel More than two stone out of the handicap.
C Benny Be Good A long way drift of Ikorodu Road last twice, racing off highest handicap mark after solid chase sequence last year (231112 when completing). Dropped a few pounds now but needs Junior to stay in.
C Fruity O’Rooney Good novice (222121) and consistent again in handicaps, including third in Great Yorkshire but on highest mark now after beaten only a length giving 11lb to the winner in three-miler at Cheltenham Festival.
C Knockara Beau Creditable run in Cheltenham Gold Cup after solid placed efforts in Graded races on same course (came out more or less the equal of Shakalakboomboom) but not won a chase since novice days in 2009 and generally overfaced.
C Auroras Encore Fell in this race in 2010 but Listed winner after and good form recently, close third at Sandown and winner over 2m 4f at Haydock a fortnight ago.
C Etxalar, Red Harbour.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 5.7ps win FAIROAK LAD and 4pts win KAYBEEW (3.30 Exeter)
BET 10pts win (nap) COOLBEG (3.50 Kempton)
BET 4pts win MISTER DILLON (4.50 Kempton)
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