SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the matches between REAL BETIS v CADIZ, ALMERIA v VALENCIA and RAYO VALLECANO v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL BETIS V CADIZ
3.15pm We have an intriguing Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and there’s three interesting markets to focus on in La Liga. We start the day with Real Betis hosting Cadiz – Real Betis are the shortest priced favourite of the day, but they aren’t trading too short at 1.71. We’re going to have some big opinions on either side of the book on all three games! All three games today are going to have an impact at the top and bottom of the table, and this game is going to have an impact on both! Real Betis start the weekend sitting just outside the top four, three points behind Real Sociedad and they will be hoping to turn their form around after a recent poor run of results. Cadiz sit just outside the relegation zone, they are just one point away from the bottom three. There’s a lot of sides involved in the relegation battle in La Liga this season however, so they still have a great chance at staying up. They are under pressure though, there’s no doubt about that. They put four games unbeaten together before the International break, but then returned with a 2-0 loss against Sevilla with home advantage.
Real Betis have dropped a lot of points recently, along with crashing out of Europe against Manchester United in the Europa League. They lost 1-0 away to Atletico Madrid, but there’s no real shame in that. Their only target from here is to catch Real Sociedad sitting in fourth spot. At the moment it looks like the top three are a lock, especially after the Atletico Madrid v Real Betis game last weekend. Real Betis have been conceding the exact same amount of chances they are creating this season, and they haven’t been as strong as last season. Cadiz haven’t been as good as that – they are conceding an average xG of 2.0 and only creating 1.1 – hence why they are in the relegation zone! With home advantage here, it’s hard to see past a Real Betis win and I feel they should be shorter than the current 1.71. Cadiz have been solid away from home this season, and they have been conceding so many chances this season Real Betis have an excellent chance to get back to winning ways.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Betis to beat Cadiz at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetCad
ALMERIA V VALENCIA
5.30pm Next we have a huge game in the relegation battle, this might not be the most glamorous fixture of the weekend in La Liga, but it certainly is the most important! Both sides start the weekend on the same amount of points with Valencia sitting just outside the bottom three and Almeria inside it. Valencia have a great history in Spain, they won La Liga in 2001/02 and 2003/04 and then more recently won the Copa del Rey in 2018/19 – it would be a big shock if they went down. They have been playing average football this season though, and they simply haven’t been good enough away from home. I feel that is one area that could decide the game – both sides have been exceptionally poor away from home. Almeria have only managed four points away from home this season which is the lowest return in La Liga while Valencia have only managed six which is the second lowest return. Both sides have obviously been much better at home, and I was surprised to see Valencia trading as favourites when I clicked into the market. I felt Almeria would be slight favourites just because of their home record, and Valencia’s away record. I can understand why the market likes Valencia though – they are the bigger club and on their under-lining numbers they are creating marginally more chances than they are conceding.
I just feel the 2.56 is too short on Valencia, and I expect Almeria to make those odds look too short. Obviously it’s important to keep stakes low here because it’s going to be a low quality game, and Almeria have been conceding a lot of chances this season. Their average xG conceded this season is a very high 2.1. As I mentioned above though, most of their issues have come away from home. They created an xG of 2.98 in their last home game, and prior to that even beat Barcelona here, although conceding a higher xG than they created (to be expected against Barcelona!). We actually a very entertaining game when these sides met earlier in the season with a 2-2 draw and plenty of chances. I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading odds against at 2.14 given the under-lining numbers from both sides. I couldn’t put anyone off the Valencia lay, however I feel we’re getting a lot of value on Over 2.5 goals here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmVal
RAYO VALLECANO V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We finish Sunday in La Liga with Rayo Vallecano hosting Atletico Madrid. We have two sides heading in opposite directions here as Atletico Madrid are on a winning run at the moment while Rayo Vallecano are on a winless run. It’s been seven La Liga games for Rayo Vallecano without a win, and although they picked up a 1-1 draw last weekend against Valencia they conceded an xG figure of 3.28 in a game they should have lost. Atletico Madrid controlled their game against Real Betis to win 1-0, only conceding an xG of 0.35 and they come into this game in a great place. I have to say I was surprised to see Atletico trading as big as 1.94 here – they are on a great run at the moment and it seems a great time to support them. They have been creating a lot of chances recently too – their last four xG figures have been 2.93, 2.21, 3.05 and 1.83. They’ve won six of their last seven La Liga games, and the only game they didn’t win was a draw away to Real Madrid. Their average chances created this season has creeped up to an xG of 1.7, and they are finishing the season a lot stronger than they started. Maybe they could even challenge for the title again next season.
Rayo Vallecano will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table in La Liga considering they haven’t been here for long. Their sole aim would have been to stay in La Liga last season, and now they find themselves starting the weekend in 8th. That’s a massive achievement – it must be said however that they have been over-performing this season. They have been conceding more chances than they have been creating – their average xG conceded is 1.5 while their average created is 1.3. Their actual goals conceded is only 1.1, so obviously there’s a 0.4 difference there which equals a lot of points – the xG table drops them down quite a bit. I just feel everything points to an Atletico win here, they are in a fantastic place at the moment while morale must be a bit low in Rayo Vallecano after seven games without a win. I would have Atletico at least ten ticks shorter than the 1.94, and I believe we’re getting so much value here Atletico are worth a Max Bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Atletico Madrid to beat Rayo Vallecano at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RayAtl
