MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews FOREST v BURNLEY including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BURNLEY
7.45pm Monday Night Football in the Premier League sees Nottingham Forest host Burnley on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s the start of a huge week of football as they Champions League and Europa League return. We have some massive fixtures ahead this week, and although this isn’t the most glamorous tie to start us off we do have a very interesting market. Forest come into the game as the favourites with home advantage, they are trading 2.3 at the time of writing with Burnley 3.4 and the draw is 3.5.
Burnley are in desperate need of a result as they have started the season with three losses. They came into this season with a good reputation having bossed the Championship and not many football fans thought they’d be in a relegation battle this season. Their squad is good enough to stay up but it doesn’t take too many losses for morale to get low and then they find themselves in a real dog fight. I would be surprised to see them in the relegation mix to be honest – they are helped by the fact that Luton Town and Sheffield United are long odds on to get relegated but we’re probably looking at one of Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth or Burnley to join them.
Forest might have been on that list at the start of the season, but they will be delighted with their start. Two wins in the bag already with one of them coming away to Chelsea. Given how poor they were away from home last season they would have been delighted with that! Their losses have come away to Arsenal and Manchester United – both times they played OK too, they should have got something at Old Trafford having going 2-0 up! In between all those Premier League fixtures these two actually met in the Carabao Cup second round; Burnley won 1-0 away from home.
That result might make a lot of punters feel that the 2.3 is a little short here. Burnley have been conceding goals for fun in the Premier League though. They also have/had the lowest average xG created of any side heading into matchday four. Their average xG is just 0.56, but in fainess to them they have had to play Manchester City and Spurs in their opening three games. This fixture will be very interesting as it will give us an idea where Burnley stand this season – if they get blown away they might actually be involved in the relegation battle.
The sides haven’t played each other recently apart from the Carabao Cup game. Burnley have a decent long-term record, and only 36% of the 14 meetings have had Over 2.5 goals. Given they are both averaging an xG of under 1.0 I wouldn’t be keen on backing Over 2.5 goals here at 1.96. Indeed, the Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 looks pretty tempting; the thing that puts me off that however is they have both been involved in some very high scoring games ready this season with lots of sloppy goals. I feel we have two very even sides here and the draw stands out at 3.5. Either have been creating a huge amount and they both have issues at the back – I think they’ll cancel each other out and we’ll see a very even game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBur
