SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews LAZIO v UDINESE with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V UDINESE
7.45pm It’s the start of a huge week from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange with the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Finals! We kick off the week in Serie A and while it might not be as glamorous as some of the fixtures to come this week, we do have a very interesting market as Lazio host Udinese at the Stadio Olimpico. Lazio have been having a very frustrating season – they sit in mid-table and look highly likely to miss out of the European spots – but the main story of the season hasn’t been on the pitch, it’s been the empty seats in the stands.
The Curva Nord ultras have been boycotting home games for much of the campaign in protest against president Claudio Lotito, and the images of the Stadio Olimpico sitting practically deserted have been one of the most striking sights in European football this season. The dispute has its roots in a long-running feud between the supporters and the club hierarchy. What set it off was an incident involving a tribute to Vincenzo Paparelli – the Lazio fan killed at the Derby della Capitale in 1979. The fans had invited Paparelli’s granddaughter to the pitch for a choreography in his honour, but club security denied her access. Obviously this has gone on for ages, and then you have the other things like rising ticket prices, no support for the manager in the transfer market and basically a general sense of disconnect between the boardroom and the terraces.
Lotito responded angrily to the initial boycott, declaring publicly that he would not accept intimidation. The fans, true to their word, have largely stayed away for home games all season – with one notable exception, they came back for the AC Milan fixture in March as what the Curva Nord described as “one final act of love” before resuming their protest. They will almost certainly be absent again tonight. The photos are quite surreal. It must feel strange for the players – it’s not quite an empty stadium like Covid19 times but it’s not far off. Obviously given Lazio are going to miss out on European football; what is happening at the moment is working for nobody. Surely Lotito has to try make amends with the fans.
Their underlying numbers don’t make for the most exciting reading either. Lazio’s average xG created of 1.26 is in the bottom half of Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.43 is also a mid-table defensive figure. They are simply not creating enough going forward, and that has been the persistent problem for a while now. Despite all the issues, they still come into this game as favourites. Lazio are trading 2.06 with Udinese 4.3 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Udinese are playing at a similar level, but obviously expectation for them are lower. Their average xG created of 1.25 is almost identical to Lazio’s, and Their average xG conceded of 1.42 is the same story defensively. Both sides are within 0.01 of each other going forward and at the back! I have to say, the 2.06 feels very short on Lazio here; home advantage isn’t worth much with what is going on at the moment and clearly both sides have been playing at the same level. I’d have this one as a very close game and the 2.06 looks a good value lay from a value point of view.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Lazio to beat Udinese at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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