Indianapolis Colts (13-5, 12-5-1 ATS) @ New England Patriots (13-4, 9-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -6.5 (53.5)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: CB Vontae Davis (questionable– knee), CB Greg Toler (questionable– groin)
New England: C Bryan Stork (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. AFC opponents
Indianapolis is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
New England is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games
New England is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games
The underdog is 14-5-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-0 in Indianapolis’ last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 5-2 in New England’s last 7 games overall
The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are simply too dangerous on offense to be getting nearly 7 points, especially when you consider that they beat Denver last week as a 9.5-point ‘dog and are now 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of more than 7 points. The Patriots, meanwhile, are terminally overvalued in the postseason, covering just 3 times in their last 14 playoff games.
2. Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the NFL. He led the league in passing this season, averaging nearly 310 pass yards per game, and last week he so thoroughly outplayed Peyton Manning that people were openly calling for Manning’s retirement after the game. On Sunday Luck will face a New England defense that ranked 17th against the pass this year, so he should have plenty of success. Of course, Luck has already topped 300 yards against this Patriots defense (Week 11) and he’s averaging over 340 pass yards in five career postseason games, so great performances are almost expected at this point. This is not the guy you want to be betting against in a playoff game, especially when his team is a substantial underdog.
3. When people talk about Indianapolis they mostly focus on the offensive side of the ball, and with good reason: the Colts ranked 3rd in total offense this season and scored 24 points or more 13 times. However, the play of the defense is what has turned the Colts into a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and the defensive performance has gone largely unnoticed by NFL observers. The Colts have now surrendered 13 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games, and last week they thoroughly dominated a Denver offense that is elite by any measure. The Patriots have quietly regressed on offense, producing 23 points or fewer in 4 of their past 6 games, and they’ll be without starting center Bryan Stork this week. Don’t be surprised if the Indy defense makes a statement on Sunday.
Three reasons to back New England
1. We don’t have to wonder what it’s going to look like when these teams face off on Sunday. Why? Because we’ve already seen this matchup, and it wasn’t too long ago: back in Week 11 the Patriots traveled to Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog and thoroughly dominated the overmatched Colts, winning 42-20. That game featured over 300 passing yards from Andrew Luck but the Colts still weren’t able to keep it competitive, which tells you all you need to know about the two teams. This time around the game is in New England and a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. Honestly, is there any doubt that Belichick, Brady and Co. will get the job done?
2. Indianapolis has a subpar defense that ranks 19th in points allowed and 18th against the run. The last time these teams met the Patriots exploited the soft Indy front seven, rushing for nearly 250 yards despite entering the game with a reputation as a “pass-first” offense. The Pats rolled up over 500 total yards in that game, and based on what we saw out of them last week, when they hung 35 points on Baltimore’s top-10 defense, there’s no reason to expect anything different this time around.
3. The Colts are the type of team that beats up on inferior opposition but has trouble against the league’s better teams. They were just 4-5 this season against teams that finished the year with a winning record and three of those losses came by 17 points or more. The brilliance of Andrew Luck masks most of their deficiencies when they’re facing the Jacksonvilles and Tennessees of the world, but those deficiencies are laid bare against teams like New England. The Colts can’t run the ball and they struggle on defense. That’s the bottom line. This isn’t rocket science: one team is clearly better, and that’s the team you should be trusting with your money.
Prediction
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