Green Bay Packers (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -7.5 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: None
Seattle: OT Justin Britt (questionable– knee), S Jeron Johnson (questionable– elbow)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Seattle is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games
Seattle is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record
The home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-2 in Green Bay’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 5-2 in Seattle’s last 7 games overall
The OVER is 8-3 in Seattle’s last 11 playoff games
The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers haven’t been underdogs of more than 4.5 points all year, yet they’re a whopping 7.5-point ‘dog on Sunday despite having won 8 of their last 9 games. Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury surely has something to do with the inflated number, but people may be making too much of the injury. Remember: Aaron Rodgers is not Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III. He uses his mobility to his advantage, but running the football isn’t a big part of his game. Last week, despite the injury, Rodgers threw for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s the NFL’s best quarterback and the opportunity to back his team as a 7.5-point ‘dog doesn’t come around too often. Sharp bettors will take advantage.
2. The Seattle defense showed some definite chinks in the armor in last week’s win over Carolina, surrendering more points than they had in seven games and allowing the Panthers to roll up nearly 400 total yards. Carolina is below-average offensively– they rank 19th in points scored– so the Seahawks could really have trouble with a Green Bay offense that has been the league’s highest-scoring outfit this season. And the Packers aren’t one-dimensional, either– they’ve run the ball extremely well over the second half of the season, and the Seahawks have had trouble stopping the run in each of their last two losses.
3. Seattle leads the NFL in rushing but they rank 28th in pass yards per game, so to call their offense “one-dimensional” would be a bit of an understatement. When these teams met in Week 1 the ‘Hawks rushed for over 200 yards on the Green Bay defense, but the Packers have improved significantly since then. As a matter of fact, over the final 8 games of the regular season the Green Bay defense surrendered just 84 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. If they’re able to slow the Seattle rushing attack it will be difficult for the Seahawks to score enough to cover the 7.5-point number.
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. These teams met in Week 1, when Aaron Rodgers was fully healthy and Mike McCarthy had 4 months to put together a game plan, and the Packers offense produced just 16 points and fewer than 300 total yards. This time around Rodgers is gimpy and the Seattle defense is playing their best football, having surrendered just 8 points per game over their last seven contests. It’s difficult to imagine the Rodgers-led Green Bay offense having much success on Sunday.
2. Green Bay really struggled on the road this season, going 4-4 and covering just three times. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have only lost twice in their last 25 home games. Plus, six of Seattle’s last 8 home wins have come by double-digits, so bettors shouldn’t be too concerned about the 7.5-point number here.
3. The Seahawks lead the NFL in rush yards per game thanks to a potent combination of the power running of Marshawn Lynch and the read-option brilliance of Russell Wilson. They should have their way with a Green Bay defense that ranked 23rd against the run this season and surrendered 123 rushing yards to DeMarco Murray last week. When these teams met in Week 1 Seattle rushed for 207 yards on 37 carries, and that “carries” number includes two kneel-downs.
Prediction
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