Arizona Cardinals (11-4, 10-5 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-8, 6-8-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -6.5 (36.5)
Significant Injuries
Arizona: TE John Carlson (questionable– calf), G Jonathan Cooper (questionable– wrist), DT Dan Williams (questionable– foot), LB Larry Foote (doubtful– knee), QB Drew Stanton (out– knee)
San Francisco: CB Perrish Cox (questionable– shoulder), CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (questionable– thumb), WR Bruce Ellington (questionable– hamstring), RB Carlos Hyde (out– ankle), WR Stevie Johnson (out– knee), S Eric Reid (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Arizona is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs.a team with a losing record
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
San Francisco is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 3-1-1 in Arizona’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last 6 home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last 6 games vs. NFC West opponents
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. The Cardinals have consistently exceeded expectations this season, while San Francisco has come unraveled over the past month as speculation regarding their head coach’s future has swirled. The Niners have now lost 4 consecutive games and have failed to cover in each of their last 4 home games. And while you don’t want to accuse them of “laying down”, it certainly seems like their “edge” is missing. Arizona is the superior team here, as they proved when these teams met in September (a 24-13 Cardinals win), and they should be backed enthusiastically as a 6.5-point ‘dog.
2. The San Francisco offense has struggled mightily in recent weeks, producing 17 points or fewer in 7 of the team’s past 9 games. It’s difficult to imagine them having any success against the fearsome Arizona defense, a unit that ranks 4th in points allowed, holding 12 of 15 opponents to 20 points or less this season.
3. This game is extremely meaningful for one team– Arizona can win the NFC West with a victory and a Seattle loss– and totally meaningless for the other. The Niners had no fight left in them at the end of their 38-35 loss to San Diego last week, a game that saw them blow a 21-point lead. San Francisco perfectly fits the profile of a team that’s ready to lay an egg in Week 17; sharp bettors will be keeping their money far away from them.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. Arizona is an 11-win team according to their record, but anyone who has seen them play over the past few weeks knows that the Cards simply aren’t very good right now. They’ve scored fewer than 20 points in 6 consecutive games and have lost 3 times over the past 5 weeks, with those three losses coming by 56 combined points. San Francisco has has a disappointing season, but this is the perfect opportunity for them to take out some frustration on a division rival. I fully expect them to do so.
2. The Niners rank 5th in the league in total defense and 5th against the pass, and this week they’ll be facing an Arizona offense that has been utterly inept since losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer several weeks ago. The Cards have now lost backup Drew Stanton as well, so they’ll be forced to go with Ryan Lindley on Sunday, a man who has been so bad in his brief career that it make you wonder just how and why he’s still employed. Arizona may not reach 10 points in this game.
3. The San Francisco offense finally broke out of their slump last week with a 35-point performance against a solid San Diego defense. The Niners rushed for a staggering 355 yards in that game, and the Arizona defense has been vulnerable against the run in recent weeks after excelling in that area over the first half of the season. The Cardinals are downright awful in the secondary, ranking 30th in passing defense, so if the running game get bottled up Colin Kaepernick can always turn to the air. Bottom line: the San Francisco offense has options in this game, while the Arizona offense does not.
Prediction
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