Carolina Panthers (6-8-1, 7-8 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-9, 7-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -3 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Carolina: LB Aaron Klein (questionable– knee)
Atlanta: RB Steven Jackson (questionable– quadricep), CB Robert McClain (questionable– illness), G Jon Asamoah (questionable– back), WR Julio Jones (questionable– hip), CB Josh Wilson (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC South opponents
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 December games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 6-0 in Carolina’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 9-1 in Carolina’s last 10 games vs. NFC South opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last 4 games vs a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. Everything is falling into place for Carolina: they’re playing well on both sides of the ball, they’ve won 3 straight games, and they’ll win the division if they can pick up a win in Atlanta on Sunday. And they’ve had plenty of recent success against the Falcons, too, covering in 4 of the past 5 meetings between the two teams. Atlanta has lost 4 of their past 5 home games and some of their best players on the offensive side of the ball– guys like Julio Jones and Steven Jackson– are banged-up and officially listed as questionable. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The running game has been the bread-and-butter of the Carolina offense under Ron Rivera, but earlier this season the Panthers were uncharacteristically struggling in that area. Well, that’s all changed now, and it’s not a coincidence that Carolina’s return to the power running game has coincided with their current 3-game winning streak. Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has been a beast in recent weeks, rushing for 437 combined yards in the team’s last 4 games. He’ll be re-joined this week by DeAngelo Williams, and they’ll go up against an Atlanta team that ranks last in the NFL in total defense. The Falcons simply haven’t been able to stop anybody this season and we’re in Week 17 now, so it’s not like they’re going to suddenly improve.
3. The primary reason for Carolina’s recent success has been the play of their defense. The Panthers ranked 2nd in the league in total defense last season but the loss of key secondary personnel and the indefinite suspension of their best pass rusher proved too much to overcome early this year, resulting in some ugly performances. That’s all changed now though, as the Panthers have held 3 of their last 4 opponents below 20 points and have crawled back inside the top-10 of the total defense rankings. Atlanta has a terrible offensive line and they’re dealing with injuries to some key skill-position players, so this is a battle the Carolina defense can win.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. After a clutch win in New Orleans last week the Falcons now return home to face division-rival Carolina with a playoff berth on the line. Of course, the Falcons have already beaten the Panthers this season and that game was in Carolina, so they certainly have the template. And let’s not make too much out of Carolina’s recent success, either– the Panthers haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since September. The Falcons are the better team here and should be backed confidently.
2. Atlanta has an explosive offense that ranks 5th in pass yards per game and 9th in points scored. They’re averaging 28 points per game over their last 5 contests, and this week they’ll be facing a Carolina defense that has surrendered 28 points or more 7 times this season. Expect the Falcons to light up the scoreboard in this one.
3. The Panthers have been horrendously bad on offense in recent weeks, scoring 21 points or fewer in 8 of their past 9 games. Their quarterback, Cam Newton, is dealing with a back injury, and Newton doesn’t have much of a receiving corps to work with anyway. The last time these teams met the Falcons held the Panthers to just 17 points, and Newton was a bit healthier then. It just seems highly unlikely that the plodding Carolina offense is going to be able to keep up with the high-scoring Falcons.
Prediction
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