ATP Miami Open
Men’s Final
Novak Djokovic (1.3) vs. Andy Murray (4.1)
This must be getting a little frustrating for Andy Murray, don’t you think? I mean, the guy has reached the pinnacle of his profession, he’s fully healthy again after struggling with the after-effects of back surgery throughout much of 2014, and he’s surely eager to show the world that he doesn’t need coach/svengali Ivan Lendl by his side to win consistently. However, he keeps running into the same brick wall over and over again: Novak Djokovic, a man who has so thoroughly proven his superiority over Murray since the 2013 Wimbledon final that any right-thinking bettor knows that nothing short of an injury can prevent the inevitable.
Djokovic is just better than Murray. It’s really as simple as that. He has a better serve, he’s more consistent from the baseline, and he’s not as prone to self pity/head-hanging, a problem that Murray has nearly conquered in recent years but one that still haunts him when things get tough.
Murray has always played his best tennis on hard courts; he’s won nearly 80% of his career matches on the surface, collecting 25 tournament titles. Against Djokovic, though, Murray has lost a staggering 9 straight hard court matches, including the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open two weeks ago, when Djokovic needed just 88 minutes to dispatch the Scot 6-2, 6-3. Anyone who watched that match and values their money would find it a bit difficult to back Murray this time around, I believe.
All that being said, Djokovic has appeared vulnerable at times in this tournament, getting taken to three sets by both Martin Klizan and Alexandr Dolgopolov and struggling a bit with David Ferrer as well. And Murray was absolutely fantastic in his win over Tomas Berdych on Friday, controlling the action throughout against a player who has given him some trouble in the past. Murray wasn’t even competitive when he met Djokovic two weeks ago in Indian Wells, but something tells me he’ll put up a good fight this time around. Does that mean I’m willing to bet against the Djoker? No, I don’t think so. However, I have a feeling a three-set classic may be in the cards…
Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.3, Djokovic 2-1 (sets) at 3.75
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