THE BIG-ODDS SATURDAY SPREE: 23.0, 18.0, 16.5, 10.0 and 9.0 offers were taken by Daqman on BETDAQ this morning in his analysis of nine races today as he eyeballs Pricewise in the 2.35, 3.10 and 3.45 Haydock. His feature bets show the following results for the 2015 Flat season after one week:
Challenge: Daqman 5, Pricewise 1
Bankers: 11U
Naps: 1111U10
Lays: 1
Big-race wins: 14-1, 8-1, 5-1, 4-1
HOT EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY: More big-race fare with the Sussex Champion Hurdle, the Musselburgh Gold Cup and the Irish Grand National.
ALL NEXT WEEK: THE GRAND NATIONAL: Myths and fallacies about the Aintree Grand National. Plus the famous Daqman ABC Guide. And race-by-race analysis of the three-day meeting.
GOLD FUTURE FOR CLASSY RICHARDS’ STAR
2.00 Haydock (Tim Molony Chase) Tim Molony rode the Champion Hurdle winner four years in succession in the 1950s, thanks largely to a hat-trick on Sir Ken. Just going near the beast was taking your life in your hands. It killed another horse when the pair were turned out into a field.
There are no killers here but a bunch of tired old horses of a double-figure age that have had a total of 91 races and have been on the go all season.
Fourovakind is best of them, and least exposed, but still a novice this year, though he’s aged 10. Dropped in grade after a decent effort behind Soll in a veterans’ chase.
Woodford County will probably place again but is error-prone and an unsafe win bet. Lackamon, the Durham National runner-up, is very one-paced, which applies to several more of these.
Buachaill Alainn has a top claimer in the saddle but also aids galore on his face. I shall take a chance with Ziga Boy, the same age as Alan King’s winner of this in 2009. A tasty 7.2 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Ziga Boy was on the upgrade at the backend of last year, strongly fancied – well in contention when unseated rider – in the Mandarin at Newbury and showed on the last day that he needs a stamina test. Forget the run in between on heavy.
2.35 Haydock (Red Mills Handicap Hurdle Final) Winners of this come from the top half of the handicap, with seven-year-olds going for a four-timer.
But Gold Futures, still only six, swooped past Upswing (Spanish Fleet fourth) to win his qualifier on the stiff Carlisle track in February. I note that Brian Ellison had the third horse home, Conquisto.
Ellison, form of 110 in recent renewals of this race, should therefore know what’s wanted for the very lightly raced Powerstown Dreams.
But so, too, should Steve Gollings, who used to train Conquisto. His Make Me A Fortune, expected to become a decent chaser, won a series final like this one at Sedgefield and has bags of stamina from the dam’s side.
As you might detect in his name, Southfield Vic also has the stamina to run a strong race here, despite shooting up 13lb for back-to-back success. However, there are concerns about the ground.
Net Work Rouge is yet another with stamina in his DNA but this big raw type may not have the speed against these classy winners and will be better suited to fences.
I reckon 10.0 BETDAQ offer Gold Futures can start to show his class (by the same sire as Holywell), though I know that Nicky Richards was also hoping for better ground.
3.10 Haydock No Planning goes for a repeat, only 3lb higher in the ratings than last year but 16lb up in the weights, suggesting that this is almost a stone weaker race.
In fact, with only No Planning, Grandads Horse and Sydney Paget having won at this level, the standard of the race is really class 3, despite its billing as class 2.
Such a race is always open to an improving young novice, such as Virak who was unlucky after his autumn hat-trick to run into a certain Coneygree at Ascot in February.
No chance with winner, as they say, even though, at that stage, Virak had earned the same rating as the future Gold Cup hero. This is his first handicap and, in this moderate field, 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning looked nap value.
The big Presenting gelding, King Of The Wolds, was out of his comfort zone in the Grand Sefton and at Cheltenham but landed a gamble back on a more conventional track on the last day.
Astigos is the opposite of ‘King’, a little horse with heart but he inevitably finds one too good and now has bridesmaid form figures. Baby Shine is another nearly horse. Pantxoa needs a sound surface,
3.45 Haydock (Grass Roots Series Final) There have been no winners of this with more than 11st 1lb, and Saints And Sinners, Canuspotit and Comeonginger have all three shot up the handicap.
Future Gilded lacks experience, and they are resorting to blinkers with Bob Tucker. They might work for him; they might work for Dare To Endeavour.
Tenor Nivernais is back down in class but is notoriously hard to win with; just one small chase since 2012, and Venetia Williams has been missing strike badly , with 12 horses placed without winning and just two scorers from 27 starters in the last fortnight.
The one I fancy at a price is Silvergrove, a steady improver until bogged down in the mud of Haldon Hill. Interesting to see Richard Johnson riding off his lowest weight for some time. A 16.5 shot on BETDAQ early mouse.
4.20 Haydock Tony McCoy partners Ustica in the Last Ride At Haydock hurdle. Punters taking the hint could get 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning. A poor race, so a little bit of win and place for old times’ sake.
TEAK IS TOUGH ENOUGH FOR QUEENS PRIZE
2.15 Kempton Only Ninjago and Brazos have scored at this class-2 level before. Brazos is Clive Brittain’s first runner of the year and William Buick’s only ride of the day.
Joint second in behind top-rating Outback Traveller, and Clive is always an early bird. I’ll be dancing with him in the unsaddling enclosure if this one wins at 23.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Speculative or what!
2.50 Kempton (Snowdrop Stakes) Launched in 2004, this race has produced a Group 1 winner and second in the last two seasons, improving on its past yield of occasional Group 3 scorers.
You’d expect the winner to come from the 100+ rated quartet, Queen Catrine, Wee Jean, Victoria Regina and Lady Dutch, with Wee Jean the least likely since her stable is out of form.
Marco Botti landed his third April winner yesterday, and Lady Dutch, dropped from Group level in Italy, made short work of a Listed over today’s course and distance in February, despite drifting in the market.
Ascot Listed-handicap runner-up Queen Catrine failed to build on that and looks hard to place. Victoria Regina has been running well in Group 2 in Dubai but still has only small-field wins in the French provinces to her name.
3.25 Kempton I think we are safe to delete the quartet of older horses, which reduces the percentage total in the BETDAQ orange to an underround, and I think we can improve the margin by taking out Georgian Bay: the Karl Burke stable is having a poor run.
Just the opposite with John Gosden: every third runner wins! And Made With Love is one of a trio of decent rides today for Frankie Dettori.
5.10 Kempton (Queens Prize) Something usually turns up here, despite small fields: only one favourite has won in eight years and there have been winners at 25-1 and 40-1.
Teak is that rare bird an improver at a veteran age on the Flat, going up 12lb for summer success. Same story over jumps, with a 16lb leap over hurdles at the backend of the year.
James Doyle booked; goes well fresh, and proverbially as tough as. Yet 18.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 4.8pts win ZIGA BOY (2.00 Haydock)
BET 1.3pts win and place BRAZOS (2.15 Kempton)
BET 3.3pts win GOLD FUTURES (2.35 Haydock)
BET 10pts win LADY DUTCH (2.50 Kempton)
BET 6pts win (nap) VIRAK (3.10 Haydock)
BET 2pts win and place SILVERGROVE (3.45 Haydock)
BET 3.75pts win and place USTICA (4.20 Haydock)
BET 1.75pts win and place TEAK (5.10 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble LADY DUTCH (2.50 Kempton), VIRAK (3.10 Haydock), MADE WITH LOVE (3.25 Kempton).
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