DAQMAN BID FOR FIFTH CLASSIC: Daqman has landed the winners of the English 2,000 Guineas, both the Irish 1,000 (Pleascach WON 11-2) and 2,000, and the French Derby (New Bay WON 3-1), so that he goes for his fifth Classic of the season today in the Epsom Oaks.
A FOUR-RACE PRICEWISE FIGHT: He takes on Pricewise for value in the 2.00, 2.35, 3.45 and 4.30 Epsom, the last race being The Oaks, in which Pricewise has three bets, Daqman two. The current score is Daqman 36, Pricewise 9.
16.0 ROCK IN A HARD PLACE: Our man needs a better shake of the dice than yesterday, when Paddy’s Rock (2nd 13-2 from 16.0 on BETDAQ won the prize for value but lost the race, after being twice stopped in his run. The Racing Post describes him in their analysis of the race as ‘incredibly unlucky.’
I’M ALL RIGHT WITH JACK NAYLOR FOR THE OAKS
4.30 Epsom (The Oaks) The missing ingredient from my ABC Guide (see Wednesday’s column in the Archive), ‘won’ by Together Forever, was the draw, which I did not have at the time.
‘Low numbers favoured’ says the Press but not since 1990 has stall 1 managed to win. Often called ‘the coffin box’, it surely seems the case here.
In fact, my inference from the returns in that time is that being drawn tight on the rails or flung far out wide are both disadvantageous.
In two of the years of shock results (2011-13 were all three won by 20-1 shots), the first two favourites were beaten, three of them running from stalls 1 and 2.
The winning stalls since the 1991 renewal: 9, 3, 10, 7, 7, 5, 13, 11, 5, 2, 3, 7, 13, 10, 3, 5, 5, 6, 9, 8, 9, 9, 5, 3
If an outsider wins today, I can’t see it being Qualify installed in 2 and third choice of the Ballydoyle trio; I can’t see it being Bellajeu, though Ralph Beckett has won it twice at huge odds, since that one has so far needed coaxing with a hood (left off today).
No, the ‘one most likely to’ is Andre Fabre’s Al Naamah, sister to the 2012 winner, Was, saddled by Europe’s master trainer, Andre Fabre.
Al Naamah was just pipped by Little Nightingale in the top French trial, the Prix Cleopatre, after the winner that day, Nightflower, had earlier stormed home four lengths at Maisons from the subsequent winner of the German ‘Diana’ trial for the French and German Oaks.
If we go on home form, the key race among the two-year-olds, as I said on Wednesday, has to be Jack Naylor’s victory – giving 5lb to each – over Legatissimo and Together Forever.
Jack Naylor has come back this year full of promise for today: he looked nailed on for a Group 1 over further after running on well, fourth to Pleascash, in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
Aidan O’Brien’s new number-one rider, Ryan Moore, is not with Ballydoyle today, which casts a cloud of doubt over Together Forever and Diamonsandrubies,
Though she won the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, there are grounds for believing that his chosen ride, Legatissimo, will get the trip today. But can the Moore magic dispel the filly’s burden of the ‘coffin-box’ stall?
In other races today, where he rides front-runners over shorter, the one stall could bring Moore a double. But a 1m 4f Classic is not the time to go haring off in front.
Where Together Forever is, so too on form is Star of Seville, whose stablemate Jazzi Top doesn’t look up to this, while Lady of Dubai is drawn widest of all.
That leaves me wondering just how good is Crystal Zvezda. Her market move this week has been inspired but her pedigree is Group 2 and heyday of Sir Michael Stoute’s great Oaks fillies ended in 1987. Can he turn back time? A filly improving in the run-up to her target is often the one to be on, and she wasn’t put into her prep race until the closing stages.
If we use Malabar as a yardstick, the Irish 1,000 Guineas was better than the English equivalent, so it’s Jack Naylor for me. Al Naamah and Crystal Zvezda are the late improvers.
Jack and Al sounds like a drag duo but I got 8.4 Jack Naylor and 14.5 Al Naamah in the BETDAQ orange in a 105% list of offers. Any one of my short-list of four could win and, with that 105% ‘book’, you can back two or three.
DAQMAN’S ORDER-IN: 1 Jack Naylor, 2 Al Naamah, 3 Legatissimo, 4 Crystal Zvezda
MOORE IS A MASSIVE BETDAQ 14.0 ON FATTSOTA
2.00 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) Arabian Queen, Don’t Be and Odeliz are the only Pattern winners in this field.
Last year’s runner-up, Odeliz, is a nearly mare, so close to the riches of the Grade-1 E P Taylor at Woodbine .
Another ‘bridesmaid,’ Lightning Thunder, was runner-up just over a year ago in both the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas. Coincidentally, it’s September, 2013, since either Odeliz or Lightning Thunder got their head in front.
Arabian Queen has the tricky one stall, whereas Don’t Be, Amulet and Lightning Thunder (8.4 on BETDAQ early mouse) are in the winningmost stalls (5, 6 and 7).
One thing that could boost Amulet’s ability – it often does – is that she’s pregnant (sorry, ‘in foal.’) but she beat only one home in this race last year. Bold Lass is improving but steps up two grades.
This is Lightning Thunder’s time of year and she is working well now. If she can reproduce her Guineas form, and Odeliz her run in this last year, they will battle out of the finish. Don’t Be (8.6 offers) is next best.
2.35 Epsom Not easy these days – there are no Smyths and Akehursts farming Epsom handicaps any more – to drop one in off a light weight to win this: that hasn’t happened since 2006.
The last eight winners have carried at least 9st., where you’ll find Fire Fighting having his 11th race of the year! And he didn’t win until the last day.
Fire Fighting has been whacked 9lb by the handicapper for the Redcar win, only two-thirds of that is operative against him as a 6lb interim penalty but he has the outside stall 13.
Stablemates Sennockian Star, back to form on the last day, and Master Of Finance, who is still improving but catching the handicapper’s eye, make this a tricky contest for punters.
A gelding op could have made all the difference to Seagull Star but it’s hard to win on this helter-skelter turning track without a run back.
I’ve opposed Ryan Moore and stall 1 in the Derby, but here Ryan can do something he’s unlikely to try in the big ’un: take them all on with Fattsota.
Moore and stall 1 can combine here in a hare’s race (catch me if you can) round the Epsom rail. This front-running winner over CD, who can get 1m 4f, could hang on in there, off 14.0 this morning.
CUSTOM CUT NAP TO BEAT BRIDESMAID AROD
3.10 Epsom (Diomed Stakes) The BETDAQ orange continues punter friendly, with a 103% total at the time of making my selection, which is 5.0 chance Custom Cut. So here I go again with R Moore in Trap 1.
Yes, he was well behind Arod in the Lockinge, but had the wrong ride on the wrong track that day. He made all at Newmarket last backend and was up with the pace when winning at Sandown on his return.
Arod ran well in the Derby but is looking like a nearly horse and this is a track of tactics. I won’t be taking the 3.0.
3.45 Epsom Abseil’s target is the Royal Hunt Cup, as last year when he took this easily off a 7lb lower mark. Being third in the Hambleton at York didn’t help his mark.
But he may well be up to it, since the Hambleton was his first race since being gelded and he very nearly won it. The fourth horse had been third in the Diomed in 2013.
It’s 8-1 bar one this morning but in an orange sure to be 10% better than the ‘books’ I can back the favourite and something to beat it.
There’s not much at today’s revised weights between God Willing and Imshivalla on their first and fourth at York last backend, and both like to be up with the pace.
Snag is that God Willing is very hard to win with and Imshivalla lost her way after a hat-trick last year and needed the hood to revive her. No show this season.
Merry Me was behind Abseil at the York May meeting and has also been beaten by Gratzie.
But, though Andrew Balding’s got a few things wrong this year, he would be wildly wide of the mark with a Group-2 Royal Ascot entry for Merry Me if he didn’t expect her to return to form today: BETDAQ 13.0 taken.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 4pts win on each DON’T BE and LIGHTNING THUNDER (2.00 Epsom)
BET 2.3pts win and place FATTSOTA (2.35 Epsom)
BET 7.5pts win (nap) CUSTOM CUT and 3.75pts win (stakes saver) AROD (3.10 Epsom)
BET 9pts win ABSEIL and 2.7pts win MERRY ME (3.45 Epsom)
BET 4pts win JACK NAYLOR and 2.2pts win and place AL NAAMAH (4.30 Epsom)
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