VALUE BATTLE OF THE CHAMPIONS: It’s 4-4 this jumps season between Daqman and Pricewise of the Racing Post, as they go Christmas shopping-for-value at Cheltenham’s two-day December Gold Cup meeting. They clash in the 2.10 and 3.15 races.
BID FOR BACK-TO-BACK BANKERS: Daqman, who landed his maximum-stakes bet yesterday with Southfield Vic (WON 2-5), goes for back-to back bankers in the opener at Doncaster this afternoon.
GOOD CHANCE FOR GOOHAR ON SOFT
12.30 Cheltenham Paul Nicholls is 1021111 in this novices’ chase, which features RSA fancies Kings Palace and Sausalito Sunrise. Nicholls saddles Vivaldi Collonges, a Dom Alco – sire of Neptune Collonges, Silviniaco Conti, Al Ferof and Grands Crus – out of the dam of an Albert Bartlett winner.
Reports suggest that any further softening of the ground after the overnight rain would be against him, as he makes his chasing debut against Kings Palace, already winner of a novices’ chase on this course over a furlong shorter.
Kings Palace beat Sausalito Sunrise four lengths that day but is now 8lb worse off, strictly more than enough to see the tables turned.
However, Sausalito, by the sire of Cue Card and The New One, had the edge on fitness, having scored on his chasing debut at Chepstow, during his yard’s winners rampage.
Richard Johnson prefers the Hobbs stablemate, Return Spring, and David Pipe is bullish that Palace can give weight all round.
If you’d rather wait and see, with March at Cheltenham in mind, then prepare for further confusion: the only winner in the decade to make any impression at the festival was Darkness (RSA third) but horses of the level of Balthazar King, Shutthefrontdoor and Imperial Commander have been beaten in this and gone on to greater glory.
1.40 Cheltenham Young horses aged four and five (7 out of 10) do well in this, and one of them – Spirit River – went on to take the Coral Cup at the festival for Nicky Henderson.
But it takes faith in the Henderson magic to side with Lough Kent, who was nearer last than first in the County Hurdle in March and only satisfactory when runner-up on his reappearance.
Vintage Vinnie, Kalamantan, Street Entertainer and Starluck don’t want any more rain, while Goohar needs gooey ground.
Just 2.4 points separate five horses in a 109% orange on BETDAQ early mouse, so you makes your choice and takes your chance. Kalimantan is not one of them, drifting like a lonely dog on a raft, well over the betting weir at 14.0.
Lough Kent and Goohar have both taken in much bigger targets than this and, at the weights, Goohar – aided by the easing ground and Richard Johnson – is my opening position at 6.4.
2.10 Cheltenham Ever since Mon Mome scored in this in 2008 and went on to take the Grand National, the Aintree market has been stirred by the result of the race.
In fact, of subsequent winners, The Package went on to win a handicap at the Cheltenham festival, Midnight Chase was fifth in the Gold Cup, Shakalakaboomboom pulled up in the National and Monbeg Dude was seventh.
Though today’s renewal has cut up badly, we still have a two-stone-plus range, with half the field pushed out of the handicap.
The Package was only six when he won it, but The Ould Lad, another young upstart, has to carry 4lb more than his mark as he takes a leap of five grades from back-to-back class-4 wins on low-level tracks.
Coward’s Close, who runs for Ditcheat in place of Sam Winner, must make an even bigger jump in class, from novice success, and he was only ever aimed at class 3 over hurdles.
He is a glass horse, very difficult to keep right. Such an animal is often best caught when fresh but Coward’s Close so far deserves only his current handicap mark.
You’d think that Lamb or Cod had a better chance of making the transition, placed already at Cheltenham, albeit on the Old Course, but he’s giving a stone to the Nicholls runner and his best form is on a sound surface.
Standing Ovation was also placed on the Old Course and also prefers the going on top but gets 10lb from Lamb or Cod, though he ran a stinker at Wincanton on the last day.
As winner of the Sandown Gold Cup in April, Hadrian’s Approach has the biggest burden and a similar penchant for perfect ground.
It’s another open contest, with four horses covered by 4.5 points in in a punter-friendly 105% BETDAQ orange this morning.
I shall have a bit on the improving northern stayer, Samstown, whose rider, Brian Hughes, is in superb form, with current returns of 2131331242121423, still standing. I took 10.5.
ROUGE COULD PUT YOU IN THE BLACK
2.40 Cheltenham Pasquini Rouge might have won this last year but went for home too soon. It was a tough ask for a five-year-old, and he was subsequently turned over as hot favourite under French ace David Cottin at Compiegne in April, winning only a small race since.
Handler Patrice Quinton, who trained the prolific Grand Steeplechase winner Polar Rochelais, has been winning in the Crystal Cup series this autumn, and the jockey he brings over for this, Jan Faltejsek, is on a big high after taking the Pardubicka, the Czech republic’s fearsome Grand National.
Last year’s runner-up, Any Currency, beat Pasquini Rouge lkttle more than two lengths that day, but is 10lb worse off. Any Currency finished three lengths up on Big Shu (Duke Of Lucca, Uncle Junior behind) in the cross-country at the Cheltenham Festival, and the revised weights bring them together.
So, if we knew that Pasquini Rouge would return to the form of this race last year, he is terrific value at 13.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Enda Bolger, the Irish master of banks racing, knows the form in these events through Quantitativeeasing, and the 7lb claim off Keep On Track entices me to a bet.
Keep On Track (offered at 8.0) doesn’t need to improve much on his close second over the Punchestown banks to stablemate Love Rory when officially set to give weight to Big Shu.
He receives 22lb today and is a better horse than when sixth in this in 2013. Like so many today, he wouldn’t want much more rain.
3.15 Cheltenham At Fishers Cross won this two years ago on his way to the Albert Bartlett crown at the festival and youngsters, aged four, five and six have taken 7 out of 10 in the decade.
Big Easy is up in the weights after two hard races in November, runner-up in hot hurdles handicaps after his Cesarewitch success at Newmarket.
Invicta Lake has a big chance of turning round the placings of their second and third over a furlong shorter on the Old Course a month back, now 7lb better off.
But the big improver of the race is Ulzana’s Raid, who ‘could be anything.’ Still a baby at the start of the year and,built like a chaser, he could put up a weight-carrying performance here if the ground doesn’t get too soft. He goes up to top hurdles like the Relkeel after this.
3.45 Cheltenham This was the springboard in 2005 for Paul Nicholls’ Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, Noland. Then Tidal Bay would run second at the festival the following March and win the Arkle a year later.
Karabak (second at the Cheltenham festival), General Miller (won at the big Aintree meeting), Darlan (Supreme Novices runner-up; winner at Aintree), and last year Neptune second Ballyalton have continued to give this race real relevance.
Nicky Henderson’s recent record in it is 11123, and Clondaw Banker – if he can improve his hurdling – can beat Padge for experience.
NAP: Clondaw Kaempfer has similar problems with his jumping, and Red Devil Boys (12.10) is the reason for Tony McCoy travelling to Doncaster for an early ride. This one was thought Cheltenham material until an injury. Can pick up where he left off
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ morning offers)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) RED DEVIL BOYS (12.10 Doncaster)
BET 5.5pts win GOOHAR (1.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3.1pts win and place SAMSTOWN (2.10 Cheltenham)
BET 4.2pts win KEEP ON TRACK and 2.4pts win and place PASQUINI ROUGE (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 7.5pts win ULZANAS RAID (3.15 Cheltenham)
BET 9pts win CLONDAW BANKER (3.35 Cheltenham)
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