DAQMAN PULLS ONE BACK AT 5-1: After two beaten bankers reduced his maximum-stakes record to 50%, Pull The Chord (WON 5-1) cut the Daqman losses yesterday. Says our man: ‘I’ll be publishing a new plan for bankers next week.’
TODAY: BIG-RACE ABC GUIDE: What do the stats and facts throw up for Saturday’s big race, the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton? Daqman checks out the runners.
TOMORROW: BETDAQ RACE DAY: On Friday, in another in-depth analysis, Daqman will take you through all seven races of the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Doncaster.
SATURDAY: RECORDS ON THE LINE: With his Bull’s-Eye Bets on 42 points profit already this year, his lays four in a row, and his value-bets lead over Pricewise 11-7, Daqman hunts out the hotpots and the long shots on the Saturday cards.
LANZAROTE ABC SAYS IT’S TEA TIME
2.40 Kempton, Saturday (Lanzarote Hurdle) Only seven years’ results with which to find a pattern, because the race was upped in trip from 2m to 2m 5f in 2007.
It’s a good race for the front of the market but, since I don’t know the SP in advance, of course, I can only mark (with a ‘D’) the five current leaders in the betting. Watch out for a plunge horse!
A: Aged five or six (5 out of 7)
B: Carrying 11st or less (5 out of 7)
C: Placed or ran twice in December (5 out of 7)
D: In first three in betting at SP (6 out of 7)
E: Trained P Nicholls or N Williams (4 out of 7)
ABCDE Tea For Two
By Kayf Tara, who passes on his staying powers. Never out of first three in seven starts (always ridden by Lizzie Kelly), and beat short-priced favourite over the Kempton CD in October before scoring up the hill at Towcester on Boxing Day, despite drop back to minimum trip.
ABCD Dawalan
More experienced than many of these runners, though only five years old. Ran in the Fred Winter in March, runner-up big Ascot Listed in November, and put his stamina to good use, snatching Aintree class 2 (2m 4f) on the last day. Flat-bred half-brother to Derby and Arc winner.
ABCD Hello George
A Westerner related to stayers on dam’s side, has so far raced only up to 2m 1f. Third to unbeaten novice Jollyalan at Exeter but, odds on, only third on same course to subsequent Neptune trial runner-up, Robinsfirth, at Cheltenham, and sixth in The Ladbroke at Ascot. Should improve, upped in trip.
ABCD Warrantor
By soft-ground sire, Turtle Island. Back-to-back wins over minimum at Chepstow (beat Arzal, third to Neptune trial winner since) and upped in trip at Market Rasen, stopping Racing Europe, a winner before and after the Rasen race.
ABC Attwaal
Five times a winner but never higher than class 4 on the Flat, or over hurdles so far, though shaped better at Haydock on the last day, first run for Lucy Wadham.
AB Andy Kelly
Landed a gamble at Kempton in March but disappointing runs back – beaten a total of 59 lengths in two races – including when favourite at Cheltenham.
AB Bordoni
Last to finish in 2013 Fred Winter. Winning form on a sound surface, and best run when fifth in the Galway Hurdle. Well behind Hammersley in November.
AB Dubawi Island
Landed a three-timer over shorter early last year and tried Graded level. Not disgraced at Sandown on reappearance and one of the likely lads if he gets the trip.
AB Royal Irish Hussar
Unknown quantity in handicaps after attempting a marathon the the Flat and championship races at both Cheltenham and Punchestown over hurdles.
AB Triumphant
Has tried cheekpieces and (return of) visors since beaten favourite twice in the autumn. Flat win and maiden hurdle success both on a sound surface.
ACD Kilcooley
Giving weight all round after running up to subsequent Tolworth winner, L’Ami Serge, in the Gerry Feilden. That and runaway Haydock success has sent his rating soaring 22lb
A Dell’Arca
Went in everyone’s notebook when winning the Greatwood (November 2013) and just failed in big Newbury handicap last Spring with 8lb more. But that’s been the trend since – near misses; more weight – including two tries over fences.
A Lac Fontana
Beat Splash of Ginge at levels at Aintree in April (Dell’Arca third) before that one’s successful transition to fences. Successively outclassed behind Vautour, Faugheen and more recently (disappointing) Rock On Ruby.
BC Saffron Wells
Runner-up in novices’ final at Sandown in March. Solid runs back and easier surface will suit but handicapper looks in charge.
B Ballybough Pat
Top 2012 novice, second in Persian War, third in the Challow. No show after in big handicaps at Cheltenham and Aintree, and first run back for 646 days here.
B Foxcub
Sixth in this Lanzarote last year (off 2lb lower mark) when soft ground found him out. Back to form on a sound surface in the autumn.
B Heath Hunter
Has had only eight races under Rules (50% record), four wins out of five in bumpers and novice hurdles, but beaten favourite at Ascot in first handicap in the Spring, and similar story after at Haydock, though ran well in both. Surprised he hasn’t gone chasing, so still interesting here.
B Little Boy Boru
Soft-heavy ground horse, 10lb higher than for back-to-back wins in November at a lower level, and held since in better grade.
B Shotavodka
Nine now and not won over hurdles since March, 2013, when stepping out of the novice stage to complete a hat-trick. Back to the ‘sticks’ here after a year’s chasing (won class 2).
B Sporting Boy
Six hurdles successes, all on decent ground, since April 2012. Ended 13-run losing streak at Wincanton in Novrember (after mixing hurdles and fences) but – big drifter – last to finish there on Boxing Day.
D Hammersley Lake
Only three races in England – nine in his whole career – narrowly beaten at Cheltenham in October but losing favourite at Newbury the following month. Soft ground said to have been against him but won on deep Auteuil surface as a three-year-old.
COURSE-LOVER FRANK CAN TANK IN
2.20 Southwell (Ladbrokes Handicap): Alan Swinbank is going for a New Year hat-trick. His first two runners of 2015 were winners, including I’m Super Too, who tries to duck under the handicapper’s radar with just a nominal penalty .
He faces six other CD winners, the most recent, Sooqaan, who has to give Two Shades Of Grey a pound for beating him a neck three weeks ago, when ‘Shades? was in the ‘coffin box’ one stall.
That dubious honour goes to Auden today, with class-6 winner, Dandarrell next door in two. Piceno has had 72 starts, Silly Billy has had 80, Putin an enormous 113, so I think we can safely say that their fellow CD winner, Frankthetank (17 races), is comparatively unexposed.
Frankthetank struck form at this time last year, with January-February form-figures of 01011, with all three of those wins at Southwell.
Today the four-year-old races off his lowest rating since that time – in fact, 7lb below his last win – and his trainer, Keith Dalgleish, who has had two winners already this year, has a healthy 27% strike rate on the course, producing a level-stakes profit of more than 46 points.
2.40 Catterick (North Yorkshire Grand National) As with most marathons, you won’t find a recent winner of this with more than 11st., and you won’t find many favourites winning (none since 2004).
Northern trainers have kept this at home for 10 years now, but John Spearing (Worcester), Caroline Bailey (Northants), Graeme McPherson from Gloucester, and Hereford trainers, Venetia Williams and Richard Lee, make up a formidable raiding party today.
Brian Ellison (Herdsman), Micky Hammond (Everaad), Lucinda Russell (Settledoutofcourt), Sue Smith (Pinerolo) and Harriet Graham, (Scotswell) are the trainers in form, all batting for the North.
Sue Smith has had three winners since Boxing Day and Pinerolo, back to form a month ago, is now down below his last winning mark. The negatives are that he’s won just small-field races and scored only in novice chases, though already nine years old.
Former winner of the Southern National, Incentivise is in great form (two out of three this winter and beat Barton Gift at Warwick). He and Milborough, who ran well in the NH Chase at Cheltenham, are class-3 scorers but there’s a gulf of more than a stone between them here.
Sean Bowen’s claim off Milborough sends old Ikorodu Road to the top of the handicap. He’s running off a competitive mark but one win in almost three years now is not appealing.
Carli King won the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day from the front but is up in grade and with 13lb more. Scotswell also tried to run them into the (deep) ground in the Scottish Borders National and was just run out of it (Union Jack D’Ycy jumped badly again).
A third front-runner, Whats Up Woody, who finished last in this race in 2012, has shown no signs of wanting this distance since, and is 10 years old now.
Incentivise remains the reliable runner at the trip, like Frankthetank around 7-1 this morning (I’ll have done with bankers until I have time to check out my results history).
3.10 Catterick However Sue Smith fares with Pinerolo in the National, she has an outstanding chance here with Emral Silk, winner of a novice hurdle here a year ago.
Emralk Silk (nap) had had two runs before that success – and then aimed too high – and has also had two to prep for this, including noticeably finishing well at Haydock on the last day over a trip too short.
Snowed In’s CD win on the first day of the year puts him on his highest ever mark; Fearless Tunes is a maiden, absent 239 days; and the danger to Emral Silk may be unlucky Sedgefield faller Vuvuzela, who will appreciate the better ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength 1 to 9; banker 10)
BET 4pts win FRANKTHETANK (2.20 Southwell)
BET 4pts win ICENTIVISE (2.40 Catterick)
BET 8pts win (nap) EMRAL SILK (3.10 Catterick)
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