DAQMAN 36-9 UP ON PRICEWISE: Pricewise chose the two Chantilly races, but it was Daqman who won them both yesterday, 2-1 up on the day, to go 36-9 ahead in their value challenge (177-82 overall):
WON 16-5 New Bay
WON 8-5 Muthmir
WINS DERBY AND TWO GUINEAS: New Bay was winning the French Derby to give Daqman a third Classic in eight days after he landed both Irish 2,000 Guineas (Gleneagles) and 1,000 Guineas (Pleascach WON 11-2 from 9.6 on BETDAQ).
EPSOM WEEK: TOP OF THE CLASS: At the beginning of Epsom Derby week, Daqman puts his slide rule on the Classic form so far and comes up with a Top 13 list of colts but finds very few that can potentially stay the Derby distance. Class will carry one through.
MAKE-BELIEVE TABLE OF LUCKY 13 CLASSIC COLTS
The picture is getting clearer (I think). The Class of 2015 is now almost assembled but with the big prizes of Derby, King George and Arc ahead for what appears to be a top crop of three-year-olds, there’s been a warning from Treve that beating their elders will not be easy.
Collateral form suggests that the top boys of this Classic generation may only be a few pounds apart, something like this (read across, notional rating, maximum trip on breeding, trainer, potential target):
124 Make Believe, 1m 2f, A Fabre (St James’s Palace Stakes)
123 Zawraq, 1m 2f, D Weld (Epsom Derby)
123 Success Days, 1m 3f, K Condon (Epsom Derby)
122 Gleneagles, 1m 2f, A O.Brien (St James’s Palace Stakes)
121 New Bay, 1m 4f, A Fabre (King George)
120 Golden Horn, 1m 3f, J Gosden (Epsom Derby)
119 Territories, 1m 2f, A Fabre (St James’ Palace Stakes)
118 Ivawood, 1m 4f, R Hannon (Commonwealth Cup)
118 Jack Hobbs, 1m 3f, J Gosden (Epsom Derby)
117 Highland Reel, 1m 4f, A O’Brien (Irish Derby)
116 Elm Park, 1m 4f, A Balding (Epsom Derby)
114 Epicuris, 1m, Mme C Head-Maarek (Epsom Derby)
114 Hans Holbein, 1m 6f, A O’Brien (Epsom Derby)
In assessing them collaterally, different distances and different going have not been taken into consideration. There’s still all to play for but the Guineas winners of England and France may well be ahead of the Dante form, while Zawraq and Success Days are strengthened without even running.
There are many questions still to be answered before the jigsaw of this Classic generation is complete. Example:
Was the Highland Reel that New Bay beat yesterday an improving horse for the trip or was he the one only sixth to Make Believe in the French 2,000 Guineas?
You could say that Highland Reel improved a couple of lengths on New Bay between Guineas and Derby yesterday. Or you could say that New Bay scythed past him at Chantilly and might have won further but for a wide draw!
The powerful play goes on, and one thing’s certain: my table of stars will look quite different in a few weeks’ time, after Epsom, Royal Ascot and the King George.
JUNE IS BURSTING OUT ALL OVER
Modest Monday fare on offer but the action hots up this week in more ways than one. At Windsor this afternoon the BBC are predicting a high of 14 rising to 20 on Saturday.
Sky News are erring on the extreme: “Forecasters say rain and gale-force winds will give way to blazing sunshine, with temperatures set to hit 28C this weekend.”
Along with the sun, it looks certain there will be bursts of rain in the south too – either from the expected thundery showers or water supplied via the Epsom taps.
Epsom Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper is hedging his bets stating that no decision on possible watering will be made until Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.
One bet from each venue today.
2.50 Leicester: BALDING HOUSE WARMING UP
A winner is a winner and Andrew Balding will be keen to kick off Derby week with a win – even in the lowly Leicester seller at 2.50 ahead of Elm Park’s Derby bid on Saturday. His runner here is Pool House who is rated a full stone ahead of his nearest rival and even allowing for unreliability of figures at the basement level – that’s still some margin for error.
Pool House was a flop at Lingfield last time out when sent off an evens favourite for a claimer but that came over 7f 140 yards which looked simply too far for him. He steps back down to 6f today for the first time since January 2014 when he won his BETDAQ sponsored maiden at Kempton. His overall form makes him a standout here – placed 10 times from 18 starts and should convert his first run in a seller to a fourth career win.
4.10 Lingfield: JUNE AGAIN FOR CORNISHCOWBOY?
When a horse wins five handicap races in a row expect the handicapper to gain revenge for the egg on his face and that’s been the case with Thecornishcowboy who rattled up the sequence amazingly inside just one month last June.
He has paid the price since in terms of his handicap mark which has been as high as 87 but is finally, pound by pound, dropping. He comes into this on a mark of 64 which is the same mark as he started his June sequence off last season.
7.25 Windsor: DIVINE INSPIRATION
Hugely competitive renewal of the Weatherbys Private Banking Leisure Stakes and trends followers will look no further than the 16/1 chance Minalisa in stall one. The last THREE runnings of this race have all gone to the horse drawn in box one !!
I thought Divine was of interest, win and place on BETDAQ. She won well over course and distance on her seasonal reappearance and although up 10lb since and facing much tougher competition can put in a big run. She’s drawn in 7 which is at least in the right half – assuming low numbers will again be favoured. Pretend (drawn 5) is an obvious danger after his win in the valuable All-Weather Sprint Championships at Lingfield last time out.
8.40 Carlisle: CHIVERS IN THE CARLISLE MUD
Testing ground has led to smallish fields at Carlisle and plenty of non runners. Three are out of the 8.40 at the time of writing.
Top weight Chivers has always run his best races with give in the ground and arrives in good form after promising runs at Thirsk and Musselburgh. In the absence of Ballyglasheen this looks his for the taking.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9, according to strength)
BET 8pts win (nap) POOL HOUSE (2.50 Leicester)
BET 6pts win THECORNISHCOWBOY (4.10 Lingfield)
BET 2pts win, 3pts place DIVINE (7.25 Windsor)
BET 5pts win CHIVERS (8.40 Carlisle)
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