BACK-TO-BACK BANKERS WIN: Daqman landed his banker-stakes nap yesterday with Donna Graciosa (WON 10-11), following his gold banker on Saturday, Shalaa (WON 1-2). He’s now had 10 winning bankers out of the last 15. Today’s nap is another banker, running at Hamilton.
FULL LONGCHAMP COUNTDOWN: Daqman is also two out of four with his midweek Hot Spots and three winners from four with his headlined ABC Guide. Look out this week for an ABC on Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and there’ll be more Hot Spots.
* TODAY: The curse of ante-post Arc betting
* TOMORROW: The Abbaye sprint stats
* WEDNESDAY: Facts for the rest of the card
* THURSDAY: The Arc ABC Guide, horse by horse
DOUBLE ‘DOUBLE WHAMMY’: Today’s a drab day but Daqman tries to wake things up with a double whammy… twice! Double Whammys are where he lays one, often the favourite, and goes on the attack with a live horse or an outsider in the same race.
ARC DRAW RED LIGHT: WAIT ON BETDAQ ORANGE
Longchamp gives you the bends. If you dive in deep ante-post, you could come up empty. Think of it as Goodwood without the slopes; Chester but somewhat elongated.
Even over the 1m 4f of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a rails draw is vital. And I’m not using that word ‘vital’ as a wordsmith journalist, but as a stats man.
In the decade, 9 out of 10 Arc winners have come from stalls between 1 and 8. Only Treve (from gate 15 two years ago) was able to beat the draw.
That’s a real accolade, when the 20 horses that finished one-two in the 10 years contained 17 from single-figure stalls.
What the draw is unlikely to do is change the confidence in Treve, because she’s beaten a bad stall before.
But imagine that, on Sunday, the leading French colt, New Bay, and his English counterpart, Golden Horn, are drawn in double figures. Treve becomes long odds-on.
I said ‘on Sunday’, but the draw will be known later in the week. So will the going. So will offers on BETDAQ.
That’s why I’m delaying my ABC Guide to the Arc, and why I suggest that you keep your powder dry until then.
Meanwhile, I shall check out the effect of the draw, plus other stats and form about the rest of the major races at Longchamp on Arc day.
GREAT EXPECTATIONS OF SYKES OVER STICKS
3.00 Newton Abbot The paper favourite, Chantara Rose, moves out of novice class into a class-4 handicap without a single success to her name and, as a Kayf Tara, is likely to be short of pace at this trip on drying ground in what reads like a very fast-run race.
Front-runners Taylor and Archie Rice are more likely to set it up for Sykes, for whom there’s a very strong word this morning. Likely to go on to better things now that a few problems have been sorted.
3.50 Hamilton It’s a totally dismal day to be going for a decent price in my naps hat-trick bid, so I’ll just try to keep the sequence going with Dark Emerald.
The grey has run up to stars like Kodi Bear and Richard Pankhurst and should treat this field with disdain, officially with 9lb in hand, though I’d say that it’s more like a stone and a half.
4.20 Hamilton Eric Alston (Lord Franklin) is in his eighth week without a winner and once lucrative to follow David O’Meara currently has the shocking strike rate of 1-60.
The O’Meara – a colt called Treasure Notes – has still to finish in the first two, yet was favourite this morning.
Take out Treasury Notes, and Alston’s Lord Franklin, and the 110% orange becomes a 100-70 in your favour.
What’s going to win it? Well, I think there’s a hidden horse here in Surewecan, first-time blinkered for Mark Johnston.
Surewecan was pushed up high in the weights a year or so ago, racing off 99 after running second to subsequent Nell Gwyn winner Osaila and within six lengths or so of Ivawood, third in two Guineas this year.
Surewecan has been very disappointing since, but racing mainly in Group races, then Listed and class 2, and you can ignore his last two runs on soft ground.
This is last-chance saloon for Surewecan, 23lb lower than those days of great promise and with the blinkers fitted, dropped to class 5, he was worth a punt at 12.5 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 reveals the strength of the bet; banker is 10)
LAY 5pts CHANTARA ROSE and BET 8pts win SYKES (3.00 Newton Abbot)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) DARK EMERALD (3.50 Hamilton)
LAY 5pts TREASURY NOTES and BET (Hidden Horse) 2pts win and place SUREWECAN (4.20 Hamilton)
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