WIDE OPEN: ANOTHER ARC SHOCKER: Treve is back on top of the Arc de Triomphe markets after another shock result yesterday. Daqman looks at the sequence of events and finds a big offer on BETDAQ.
WIDE OPEN: LEGER STATS SURPRISE: Daqman also picks his ‘A’ team for the St Leger, the eight rated within the winning ratings parameters of the last seven years. Look out for his final verdict on Saturday.
IVANHOWE BIG WITH BETDAQ
The Arc market was cut adrift yesterday. A fourth consecutive favourite was lost in a sea of strange results. Layers clung to the wreckage and put last year’s winner back at the helm.
* Australia is still 5-1 second favourite in some books but out to 8-1 with in-the-know Ladbrokes on the back of news that he may be kept to 10 furlongs. Sure enough he runs in the Irish Champion Stakes on Saturday.
* Taghrooda took over the yellow jersey when she followed up her Epsom Oaks triumph by slamming the King George field a similar margin. But she was beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks.
* Treve has been favourite on an off in the betting skirmishes to repeat last year’s Arc victory but she has disappointed twice this season, in the Ganay and at Royal Ascot.
* Sea The Moon That Treve is favourite again this morning reflects yet another defeat among the top four, as the cheers for runaway German Derby winner Sea The Moon were drowned when Ivanhowe easily took command at Baden-Baden yesterday.
* Ivanhowe was in to 12-1 this morning, 10-1 in a place, but 16.5 on BETDAQ, early mouse, as Sea The Moon’s stable shrugged off the result.
* Kingston Hill, favourite for Saturday’s St Leger, is as short as 14-1 for the Arc with Ladbrokes but 22.0 was available on BETDAQ this morning. He struggles in the stats for my St Leger ABC Guide.
HIGH WIND IN ST LEGER ABC
A Rated 109, 110, 111 (two), 112 (two) and 113 (last seven years)
B First or second in a Group race (10 out of 10)
C Has won between 1m 2f and 1m 4f (10 out of 10)
D Sire stamina index 10.9+ or finished in a Derby first two (9 out of 10)
E Ran well in the Epsom/Curragh Derbys, Gordon Stakes, Great Voltigeur.
F Trained Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden.
G Has won on soft ground
ABCDEFG Kingfisher
Kingfisher ticks all the Leger boxes, but Aidan O’Brien says that the colt will run as pacemaker to Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes, which is also on Saturday (The Grey Gatsby will be supplemented).
That leaves Ballydoyle fielding Granddukeoftuscany at Doncaster, cut to 16-1 in places this morning – but 40.0 on BETDAQ – despite the colt’s moderate effort in the Great Voltigeur trial (see Hartnell and Snow Sky).
ABCDEG Windshear
Though from a yard best known for milers, Team Hannon’s Windshear is left as the highest ABC scorer, never out of the first two in a light career of seven races, and therefore one of those likely to improve a notch.
Rated 110, and placed in Group-3 contests at Newmarket and Goodwood (beaten a neck by Snow Sky the Gordon Stakes), his sire’s best so far have won a Northumberland Plate and an Ormonde Stakes.
But Windshear has officially improved 30lb since taking a 1m 2f handicap in the Spring, and is half-brother to a 2m winner. There were offers of 8.6 available on BETDAQ this morning.
ABCDG Hartnell
Beaten two lengths by Snow Sky in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to taking the 2m Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and then grabbing the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket (1m 5f) before runner-up Windshear could get into top gear.
Has to bounce back from a poor effort tin the Great Voltigeur behind Snow Sky, Odeon, Marzocco and Grandukeoftuscany.
ABCEF Romsdal
A strict adherence to the stats fails to give Romsdal a mark for stamina but, in fact, his sire, Halling, is responsible for two Goodwood Cup winners, Cavalryman and Opinion Poll.
Romsdal ticks all the other boxes, right enough, as Chester Vase runner-up, third in the Epsom Derby. Not given a hard time when well held in the King George, and could bounce back.
ABCEG Snow Sky
His sire is mainly renowned for milerts but Snow Sky won one of the top trials for this, the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood (1m 4f), having earned an 11lb rise in the ratings for running up to Hartnell in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Finished well clear of Odeon, Marzocco, Granddukeoftuscany and Hartnell when second in the York International
ABDE Somewhat
Group runner-up as a two-year-old, his rating dwindled after Newmarket and Chester (behind Kingfisher) trial defeats.
But his Eclipse third had shot him up to 115 when he lined up for his Gordon Stakes. He finished third to Snow Sky but that was with front-running tactics, which subsequently failed at Newbury, dropping him back to 109.
ABEG Kingston Hill
Here’s Saturday’s favourite, near the bottom of the pile, having never won beyond a mile and out of a sire whose best son, The Grey Gatsby, is winner of the French Derby (1m 2f) then was second in the York International to Australia (also 1m 2f).
Kingston Hill himself is living off his own second to Australia, in the Epsom Derby but, either side of that, was down the field in Guineas and Eclipse, seemingly needing a Leger kind of trip. The current good-to-soft ground at Doncaster will help, if that is the case.
AD Scotland
The last of the ‘A’ team (those with the right rating for this) is Scotland, whose sire Monsun got top mile-and-a-half colts, Novellist and Shirocco.
Scotland has been third in Chester Vase and Ascot Derby (King Edward Vll Stakes) and galloped on, one paced, in the Gordon Stakes. Not out of it.
DON’T FORGET DESSIE RAIDER
Follow a stable in form. I’ll take that ancient wisdom on board at Perth today and bet one of seven Irish raiders, the one trained Dessie Hughes.
Dessie has had five of his last six runners in the frame, two of them winners, and Forget And Forgive (2.50) showed a liking for fences on the last day. Looks nicely in.
Another traveller to Perth is Tim Vaughan, all the way from Welsh Wales with The Wallace Line (4.20), sole ride of the day for the track’s top jock on percentages, Michael Byrne.
Snag is that, according to the Racing Post assessment, Vaughan is so out of form, he is getting 0% from his horses. The Wallace Line has so far failed to score and was 70-lengths last at Lingfield. Since 0% of 0% is nothing, I scrubbed him out.
Barry Geraghty is over for a single seat at Newton Abbot in the addle of Nicolas Chauvin (5.10) for Nicky Henderson. Geraghty is in hot form in Ireland with eight out of his last 10 rides in the frame.
The lonely Flat outpost on the breezy rock outside Brighton should see Richard Hughes continue to close in the jockeys’ race in the absence of Ryan Moore: R oyal Connection (3.30) could land him at least one more winner today from five seaside rides.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) FORGET AND FORGIVE (2.50 Perth)
BET 5pts win ROYAL CONNECTION (3.30 Brighton)
EARLY MOUSE BETS: UPSAND DOWNS (2.10 Newton Abbot), ON TOUR (3.10 Newton Abbot), AINSI FIDELES (3.40 Newton Abbot), JAZZY LADY (4.20 Perth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble Forget And Forgive (2.50 Perth), Royal Connection (3.30 Brighton) and Nicolas Chauvin (5.10 Newton Abbot)
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