Indianapolis Colts (0-0, 0-0 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -7.5 (55)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: LB Erik Walden (questionable– abdominal), S Sergio Brown (questionable– shoulder), LB Robert Mathis (out– suspension)
Denver: K Matt Prater (out– suspension), WR Wes Welker (out– suspension), LB Danny Trevathan (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 September games
The OVER is 5-1 in Indianapolis’ last 6 road games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Denver’s last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are one of the best teams in the AFC and they’re a team on the rise thanks to young quarterback Andrew Luck, who will likely be a Brady/Manning/Rodgers-level star in the near future. Giving Luck and this Indianapolis team 7.5 points is a bit generous, to say the least.
2. Denver really struggled in the secondary last season, ranking 27th in pass defense, and Luck certainly isn’t afraid to take shots downfield. And with the great Reggie Wayne now healthy again, Luck is surrounded by enough weaponry to match Manning point-for point in a shootout. And again, Colts bettors have 7.5 points to work with.
3. The Broncos will miss Wes Welker, who is serving a drug-related suspension. Welker would’ve been especially important in this game because the strength of the Indianapolis defense is their secondary, and without Welker Manning will be without his most reliable option over the middle. A shorthanded Denver offense facing a defense that specializes in defending the pass… sound like a good matchup for the Indy defense. And, again, do I have to mention the 7.5 points.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. Last season the Broncos had the best offense in the history of the NFL, and on Sunday they’re facing a team that finished 20th in total defense last year. This isn’t brain surgery; don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be.
2. Peyton Manning, who is indisputably one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, has beaten every team in the NFL but one: the Colts. You don’t think he knows that? And you can be sure that no one is more ready to wash away the bitter taste of last year’s Super Bowl humiliation than Manning. A highly motivated Manning + a vulnerable defense= trouble for Manning’s opponent.
3. The Colts had quite a bit of luck on their way to 11 wins last season, winning six games by 6 points or fewer. Most people don’t realize that, though, they just see “division title and playoff win” and automatically assume that the Colts are a certain kind of team (legit contender…). The result? The Colts are overvalued. The proper spread on this game is Denver -9.5, so 7.5 should feel like a steal.
Prediction
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