NAPS HAT-TRICK: NOW FOR NEWBURY: Daqman landed his third consecutive nap with the dead-heater Prince Of Pirates (WON 9-4) yesterday, following Captain Bellamy (WON 11-4) and Berlusca (WON 100-30). He also has a lays sequence of four in a row.
12.10 Newbury (Game Spirit Chase) Horses aged 10 and over have a poor record in this and, while Nicky Henderson won it last year, the race had hitherto ‘belonged’ to Ditcheat with Paul Nicholls five out of six (Ruby Walsh four from five).
Their contender, Hold Fast, who has a stone to find on official ratings, gets only a pound from the Arkle favourite, Sprinter Sacre, who won his first two novice chases by a total of 40 lengths in December.
But the Sprinter who is a chaser steps outside the novice ranks and faces older horses for the first time here, with Henderson intent on a change of tactics as well as more fencing experience before Cheltenham.
Will Sprinter Sacre be vulnerable if they try to settle him, and have stablemate French Opera, last year’s winner, setting the pace?
I say ‘if’ but that is the declared intention and, in such circumstances, 6.8 the unexposed Hold Fast is a better option than taking the odds on Sprinter Sacre.
12.40 Newbury (Denman Chase) This race is another Nicholls benefit, as its name implies: he’s won four of the last five, and is going for a hat-trick here with two chances.
But this time it is Nicky Henderson, who hasn’t won it since Bacchanal a decade ago, who has the unexposed eight-year-old: Burton Port joins his stablemate, the Gold Cup favourite, Long Run, in an intriguing race.
We hear that the Henderson camp’s attitude – certainly the jockey’s – is: Long Run doesn’t have to win it; his target is gold again at Cheltenham.
With what is likely to be a furious pace on from The Giant Bolster, the older horse, Tidal Bay, is expected to finish as he has done in his last two races: kept on, no impression (i.e. no turn of foot left).
What A Friend has to turn back the clock nearly two years, and Chapel House races off 79 to Long Run’s 182. If the champion is not to be punished, the way is clear for Burton Port (8.6 on Betdaq), who gets 10lb.
I particularly like the comment in the trade paper from that crafty old rascal, N Henderson: ‘He’s got to start back somewhere.’ The last time he said that, the stable cat won a Grade 1.
1.15 Newbury (Grade-3 Hurdle) Nicholls v Henderson here features two unbeaten horses, Zarkandar and Darlan, but it’s very hard to carry a big weight to victory in this one: six of the last seven winners had between 10st and 10st 9lb., with the only weights breakthrough by an Irish raider who had just captured the prestigious Pierse Hurdle.
Raiders today trying to follow that winner, Essex (11st 6lb in 2005), are Willie Mullins’s Final Approach off 11st. – he won the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last March off 11lb lower – and Sailors Warn, Edward O’Grady’s Triumph Hurdle sixth, who has a stats-blessed 10-7.
Sailors Warn was the ‘moral’ twice in the autumn, runner up giving weight to Steps To Freedom and Unaccompanied, and is 6lb better for five lengths with Raya Star on Ascot form in December when he had a luckless run.
He was sixth, beaten by the hill, when Zarkandar won the Triumph, and is 8lb better off for as many lengths, though beaten easily that day. Sailors Warn is the best outsider at 32.0, as I write.
Soldatino has to bounce back, without a win for two years, but Sire De Grugy, who beat a bunch of these at Aintree, should be ready after his run back at Chepstow, a much classier horse than the trainer’s previous two winners of this. If you like jockeys’ tips, there is one for Olofi (see next race).
1.50 Newbury This trial launched the subsequent Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Al Ferof into the big time last season but had earlier put up Albuhera, Pasco and Bellvano, all flops in the same festival race.
Colour Squadron beat Montbazon a length over CD in December but the form was let down when Colour Squadron’s Sandown conqueror, Captain Conan, flopped at Leopardstown (though maybe he didn’t travel over well).
The result is that the unexposed Vulcanite swept to the front of the Betdaq market early doors which makes this Group performer on the Flat seemingly ‘expected’.
Yet the easier opportunity in the opener at Sandown is where they originally intended to go, according to trainer Charlie Longsdon. Dictating their decision was Paddy Brennan, who wanted to be at Newbury to ride Olofi in the Grade-3 handicap hurdle (1.15).
After all this, I’m thinking the market leaders are ‘all of a heap’, a length between two of them, 0.5 points between the three of them in the offers, as I write. So I’m taking a chance on All The Aces sorting the lot of them out!
2.25 Newbury As often happens these days, a Grand National contender is heading for Aintree via a hurdles warm-up or two: Junior, current favourite for Aintree, swerves the big Haydock trial tomorrow.
Last year’s winner of this, Stow, is only 4lb higher but needed first-time blinkers to being him back to form last time and his proximity to the market leaders suggests that this won’t take a lot of winning.
Before Stow, the top half of the handicap had provided the winner for five years running. Deireadh Re would have been well fancied off 11st 6lb on a line through Rev It Up but has even less to carry.
The Harry Derham claim sets him apart, returned to his best trip and getting a couple of pounds from the favourite, Gullinbursti.
2.55 Newbury (Scilly Isles Novices Chase) This race switches from Sandown, where it was won last year by Medermit on his way to a fourth in the Arkle, and the same stable’s Walkon has been freshened up for this.
Paul Nicholls, who won it four years running (2006-9), has a raw contender in Cedre Bleu but the more experienced favourite, For Non Stop, runner-up to Al Ferof in December, has the bridesmaid habit of finishing second.
3.30 Newbury Four of the last eight winners went on to be in the first six in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham: closest was Al Ferof (second to Cue Card in 2010).
Paul Nicholls and Jonjo O’Neill have won two each and set up a clash for McCoy and Walsh here on Shutthefrontdoor and Vrai Vert, but Grands Crus’s brother, Gevrey Chambertin, and Village Vic head them in the market for a very informative race but hardly one to bet in.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win HOLD FAST (12.10 Newbury)
BET 2.6pts win BURTON PORT (12.40 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.4pts win SIRE DE GRUGY, 0.9pts win and place SAILORS WARN and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) ZARKANDAR (1.15 Newbury)
LAY to win 10pts ONLY HOPE and 5pts win (nap) BRILLIANT (1.30 Fakenham)
BET 4pts win ALL THE ACES (1.50 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 6pts win DEIREADH RE (2.25 Newbury)
LAY to win 10pts FOR NON STOP (2.55 Newbury)
BET 3pts win ON BORROWED WINGS (3.05 Fakenham)
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