MASSIVE 48.0 ABOUT LADBROKES 14-1 SHOT: Christmas has come early at Cheltenham for punters who fancy a potential cross-country star: 14-1 with Ladbrokes but 48.0 on BETDAQ this morning. If he doesn’t win today, watch out for him in the cross-country handicap next month, says the trainer.
BETDAQ PUNTERS 6, SP PUNTERS 1: Since Sunday, Daqman has been picking up on BETDAQ races where offers totted up to between 103 and 110% total probability at the time he made his selections. In eight races he chose, Betdaq has so far beaten SP six times with the bookies returning up to 117%. Once the bookies were marginally better; and once SP and the Daq were about the same.
1.15 Cheltenham (Steel Plate and Sections Novices’ Chase) This race has produced two Gold Cup winners in the last six years. Paul Nicholls won it with Denman (2006) but it’s asking a lot for a four-year-old (Unioniste) to score; five is the youngest winner in the race history I have.
But some thought the same when Unioniste was pitched into an Aintree chase three weeks ago on his first run in England but the half-brother to My Will had today’s top-weight, Carlito Brigante, well in rear.
Unioniste’s jumping that day left something to work on. ‘All he does is gallop and stay,’ says Nicholls, who will be upping him in trip after today’s race.
David Pipe’s Dynaste, second over hurdles to Big Buck’s over 3m in January, is having his first chase, but don’t let it put you off: that applies to the last three winners, including the same stable’s Grands Crus a year ago.
Dynaste, who won a Grade 3 (3m) at Haydock), has a 13lb higher rating over hurdles than today’s favourite, Fingal Bay, whose four-timer was in novice events, the best of them defeat of Simonsig (2m 4f).
Fingal Bay is not the stayer we have seen in Dynaste nor in the potential of Unioniste. He lost his unbeaten hurdles record over 3m on a flat track at Aintree. I can see Dynaste and Unioniste coming at him up the Cheltenham hill.
Depending on the pace, this is an exciting and informative test of three potential champions, with some intriguing offers early doors: though Paddy Power were giving away Unioniste at 11-2, Ladbrokes were conversely skinny at 7-2, creating a book of 111% where BETDAQ offers totted up to only 103.
1.50 Cheltenham Kid Cassidy is not Nicky Henderson’s best advertisement. The new ‘Kid’ on the block fell first time over fences, got back on track but was pitched into all-aged Graded races at Aintree and Cheltenham, the Grand Annual and the Red Rum Chase (Astracad second).
A keen-goer, he was held up out the back and never got into contention, with the same tactics applied on his reappearance to similar effect. In Henderson’s defence is that he regards Kid Cassidy as ‘mentally scarred’ by his being involved in the paddock electrocution incident at Newbury. The horse has worn a net muzzle and earplugs.
Additionally, the ‘Kid’ looks high in the handicap here in his bid to land Henderson a four-timer in this race; only one horse has won above 11st 7lb in the decade.
This is another punter-friendly BETDAQ list of offers (108% as I write), with Shooter’s Wood interesting at 8.4, returning to the scene of his only success.
Silver Roque already holds a verdict over Kid Cassidy but the form lines suggest he has it all to do to beat Astracad (6.0 as I write), who goes well fresh, winning at the Cheltenham December meeting last year.
2.25 Cheltenham It’s rare to see horses over the age of five win this (1-10). The stats guide you to top-class bumper winners (Cue Card and Steps To Freedom in 2010-11).
That’s a pointer to the Aintree Champion Bumper fourth, Court Minstrel, whose winning hurdles launch here at Cheltenham a month ago was given a boost yesterday by runner-up, The Romford Pele.
Dodging Bullets had won over CD the day before Court Minstrel’s win, stringing out a small field. This is Paul Nicholls’ top Supreme Novices candidate at this stage and the always-bullish trainer is even talking about the Champion Hurdle if all goes sweetly.
Nicholls public-enemy-number-one, N Henderson of course, ‘likes River Maigue a lot’, but is not sure of his ammunition at this stage.
I’d just love to see the doughty Tominator step up into Graded company; after all, the Pitman’s Derby winner and Cesarewitch third scored at Listed level on the Flat.
Ladbrokes, noted for ‘getting it right’ with the Irish contingent, are half the price (7-1) of their rivals this morning about Run With The Wind but he is best of all at 16.0 on BETDAQ.
3.00 Cheltenham (Cross Country) These races call for maturity (only one winner under the age of 10 in nine years) and you can expect to see the same names triumph again and again.
Balthazar King and Sizing Australia have taken the big ones here in March and Uncle Junior goes for back-to-back success in today’s race. One question which will be answered here is how good is Pardubicka winner Orphee Des Blins? I believe that Balthazar King can establish himself as a sequence horse in these events.
But the massive anomaly in the markets is that Ladbrokes go 14-1 Vincitore, said to be able to jump walls and canals, yet he is offered at 48.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
Charlie Longsdon is convinced that he has a cross-country winner in Vincitore, more likely in the handicap at the December meeting. But you can’t pass up today’s Betdaq bounty to small stakes.
VERDICT: Without Big Buck’s Dynaste might have been a world hurdler yet he’s always looked more likely to excel over fences. Balthazar King is very young for cross-country but he’s already shown he’s a champion at the game and his age says he could improve and set up a sequence.
Kid Cassidy is a lay until he proves he’s got his head right. Dodging Bullets ‘could be anything’ but is not value today (except with hindsight if he does win!). There are very big offers about Run With The Wind and Vincitore who are place plays.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 10.4pts win (nap) DYNASTE (1.15 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET: 4pts win ASTRACAD and 2.7pts win SHOOTERS WOOD (1.50 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET: 4.3pts win TOMINATOR, 1.3pts win and 2.7pts place RUN WITH THE WIND (2.25 Cheltenham)
DAQ VALUE BET 6.6pts win BALTHAZAR KING and 0.4pts win and 1.6pts place VINCITORE (3.00 Cheltenham)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by stake). A Daq Value bet is one in a race where the overround was 110% or lower at the time of making the selection.
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