GRAND NATIONAL: CAPPA BLEU CAN PEAK AT 21.0 ON BETDAQ: Of the 83 entries, only 16 have the essential CV to win the Aintree Grand National, according to Daqman’s early survey of the stats. His first position on the race is the 21.0 BETDAQ offer Cappa Bleu, who trials on Saturday.
DOOR OPEN FOR CONQUISTO TO LAND THE NAP: Daqman’s nap, McVicar, was one of the gambles of the day (6-1 to 3-1 joint favourite just before the off) yesterday but ran in snatches and stopped his winning sequence at five. Today’s nap is at Kelso, a chance for Conquisto, second to Overturn last time. Daqman also dabbles in the first colts’ Classic of the year, the 2,000 Guineas at Meydan.
The next two Saturdays are vital in your search for the Grand National winner. The market is sensitive to the Haydock Trial this weekend and the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse next Saturday, though they may not be turnkey tests.
The Haydock winner has tended to affect the market but not the result of the National: Giles Cross, Shotgun Willy, Rambling Minster and Silver By Nature all won at Haydock in recent years and all were backed, or cut in price by the bookies, for Aintree. All failed; in fact, three of them pulled up.
The Bobbyjo, on the other hand, has produced a winner (Hedgehunter) and one of the best placed horses never to win a National, Black Apalachi.
But softly, softly catchee monkey (my target on the race is to win £500), as I believe a horse will run well on Saturday at Ascot or Haydock and set himself up for victory on April 6.
Trainer Evan Williams wants Cappa Bleu to peak at the right time, mindful of keeping him sound and of past mistakes.
Cappa Bleu acts on the soft but is a better horse on the sounder surface of the amazing turf we can expect at Aintree.
His third in the 2011 Welsh National in a Chepstow bog took it out of him, only his third chase out of the novice stage. Nevertheless, he was third at Ascot a year ago this coming Saturday and ran a magnificent fourth in the 2012 Grand National itself, despite being badly hampered by a faller in the early part of the race.
Cappa Bleu was not punished on his reappearance at Carlisle in November and swerved the Welsh National this time around, waiting for this Saturday at Ascot again or Haydock to take him down that vital racecourse-run road to his peak. I took 21.0 Cappa Bleu on BETDAQ last night.
As well as Cappa Bleu, front-of-the-market Aintree horses in Saturday’s Grand National Trial include Silver By Nature, Teaforthree, Across The Bay, Giles Cross and Monbeg Dude.
The alternative (depending on the weather) is the Listed at Ascot, which may feature Cappa Bleu, Teaforthree and Harry the Viking.
AGE: Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for his years, with only 10 starts under Rules, and horses aged 10 and 11 have an excellent record, with the last three winners.
Seven of the last 10 were a double-figure age. None was younger than nine; in fact, only two below nine have won in 30 years.
That makes it hard work for Katenko and the early favourite, Join Together, aged seven and eight respectively.
WEIGHT: Nine of the last 10 winners have carried between 10st 7lb and 11st 6lb so, despite the handicapper’s leniency, he is still asking Tidal Bay to perform a weight-carrying feat not seen since the days of Red Rum.
Albertas Run also has a formidable task at the weights but Jonjo O’Neill is well represented further down the handicap by last year’s narrow runner-up by a nose, Sunnyhillboy.
STABLES: Previous winning stables, or top yards over jumps, have landed eight of the last 11 winners, which is a worry for those who fancy Teaforthree, Wyck Hill and a host of others, not to mention Cappa Bleu!
THE LAST 16: In fact, if you weed them out according to the stats, and delete such as Weird Al and Pandorama, who seem to have lost all form, you are left with 16 having the known potential to win the National.
In alphabetical order, they are: Across The Bay, Ballabriggs, Call The Police, Colbert Station, Imperial Commander, Little Josh, On His Own, Planet Of Sound, Prince Du Beauchene, Quel Esprit, Roberto Goldback, Roi Du Mee, Seabass, Sunnyhill Boy, The Package, What A Friend,
VERDICT: Ballabriggs, down in the weights again now, and Sunnyhill Boy have been aimed at the race, which is also a key factor. But, in the belief that he can improve considerably because of his very light profile, and with him now taking more careful aim at the race this season, Cappa Bleu is my first position on the National.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 13pts win (nap) CONQUISTO (1.40 Kelso)
BET 5.7pts win FORTIFY (3.55 Meydan)
BET 1.25pts win and place LLAMADAS (7.30 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-50 JACKPOT: BET 2.2pts win CAPPA BLEU at 23.0 (Grand National, Aintree, April 6)
Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (divide 20 by the stake). Jackpot bets have higher stakes with the intention of winning 30, 40 or even 50 points.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
