NAP LANDS GAMBLE TO KEEP PROFITS RIVER FLOWING: Daqman’s profit over the last four winning days is half a point short of 50 after his nap, Dizzy River (WON 6-4), landed a gamble at Musselburgh yesterday. Benbens (2nd 10-1) was a short-head away from another 20 points, mugged on the line.
Five class-3 races today: luxury! And with a champagne flavour to the first one (1.30) Ludlow), in which I fancied CD winner Wester Ross until I looked at the stable record.
Wester Ross only seems to be able to jump on good ground and, with the bends moved to a fresh unraced strip on drying terrain, he should get it.
But Evan Williams has been missing strike badly, with five placed without winning from 18 runners in the last fortnight. The novices Mark Twain and All For Free are on the up, All For Free trying to beat the handicapper with a quick reappearance after Ascot.
But it’s Mark Twain who will carry my money: third and fourth in the Ffos Las race when he was second on his chasing debut have both won since.
Battlecry (2.35) re-emerges from amateurs’ races with 8lb more to carry so Willie Twiston-Davies is called in. He is one of four possible front-runners in the race (Cast Cada, Made In Time and Mister Wiseman are the others).
So I can see them setting up the hat-trick for hold-up horse, Chapolimoss, who won in a very fast time at Worcester. Time For Spring is the obvious danger.
There’s a similar situation at Ffos Las (2.15), where Ballyquin Queen, Blazing Buck, Mauricetheathlete, Mercury Bay and Quinte Du Chatelet are all known front-runners.
Something’s gotta give, and the situation certainly allows Wings Of Smoke some respite. A fair winner at Aintree, he drops back from a class-2 effort which showed that he needed some help with his breathing. If the op has been successful, he’ll win this.
I shall take yet another front-runner, Sure Josie Sure (3.20) to outpace Mountainous. ‘Josie’ is the only class-3 winner in the race and the Rules maiden Mountainous, winner of a 3m Point, looks too one paced for the drop back to 2m. Blinkers should help ‘Josie’ to fly in his face.
4.15 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Maiden) Aurens is well related to win this and owner Brian Gubby could have trained him to do so in the old days, but his current stable, that of Michael Attwater, hasn’t had a juvenile success in the five-year records.
Pearl Rebel’s sire, the surprise Guineas winner, Cockney Rebel, has had a couple of two-year-old winners but, again, his stable isn’t noted for winners at his age. Mariannes has run a couple of stinkers.
Gold Falcon has to make a leap forward from his modest Wolver debut, though just such a leap was made by Chorister Sport from a rear run at Pontefract in the summer to a recent narrow defeat at Lingfield.
Pucon looks the main threat to Chorister Sport, having improved on her debut to finish second over CD, despite a slow start each time. It could be her undoing again.
4.45 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Maiden Fillies) A better turn-out for the fillies’ version of the opening race. Newcomers Auntie Mabel, Cufflink and Slewtoo have all been drawn wide.
Ed Dunlop’s juveniles usually improve for a run but Diamond Finesse didn’t: a long rest, the application of blinkers and hope she does better was Doctor Dunlop’s prognosis.
By Invitation is costing supporters a packet – twice beaten favourite – in contrast to Nevaeh, 33-1 but looked promising first time out.
Boudoir’s sire was unbeaten at two but the grey filly blotted that copy book, unfancied at 14-1 first time over a furlong shorter on today’s course. However, that was some race she was in!
Winner and second have never been out of the first two; the third and fourth have won since, and the sixth, seventh and ninth have all run places.
Richard Hannon’s last eight runners have all finished in the first six, only one of them off the lead at the business end; six were in the frame, two of them successful.
5.15 Kempton (Back or Lay At betdaq.com handicap) The last two winners of this had been placed recently at Lingfield, like Castlemorris King.
The race appears to shape up as an early lead for Calypso Cay, with Castlemorris charging at him two or three furlongs out. Calypso only just lasted 10 furlongs last time and Castlemorris has twice now been headed before the furlong pole, off the mark he acquired by winning at Wolverhampton.
Dual recent winners Dance For Livy and Honourable Knight are both raised a grade and I shall have my pound on Rasheed, blinkered for the first time for John Gosden, training for his wife, Rachel Hood: five of his seven December runners have been placed, the last one a winner.
5.45 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps claimer) These are much of a muchness on the ratings at the weights, but the market has made a clear choice for Encore Un Fois.
A course winner recently, Encore Un Fois could live up to his name, even though he is described on the card as ‘black’ (a rare reference to colouring considered unlucky; would get you an eight-match ban if you were the vet who had to break the news to the breeder).
The handicapper’s view of Encore’s defeat of Ice Cold Bex at Kempton was to raise the winner a pound and demote the runner-up 8lb, despite there being only a length and threequarters between them.
Encore Une Fois was certainly ridden clear that day, has the same claimer up to make life even easier here, and the drop back to a mile shouldn’t be a major problem, keeping modest company again.
Deliberation, who has raced mainly at 6f, was placed over seven at Doncaster in November but all his best form is with cut in the ground.
BET 6.6pts win MARK TWAIN (1.30 Ludlow)
BET 4pts win WINGS OF SMOKE (2.15 Ffos Las)
BET 3.5pts win CHAPOLIMOSS and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) TIME FOR SPRING (2.35 Ludlow)
BET 6.6pts win SURE JOSIE SURE (3.20 Ffos Las)
BET 6.4pts win (nap) BOUDOIR (4.45 Kempton)
BET 3.5pts win RASHEED (5.15 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and a 1pt win accumulator Sure Josie Sure (3.20 Ffos Las), Chorister Sport (4.15 Kempton), Boudoir (4.45 Kempton), Encore Un Fois (5.45 Kempton)
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