21.0 AND 13.0 CHELTENHAM BETS: In Daqman’s third day of Cheltenham assessment, he tries to put himself in the owner’s shoes, as connections decide which race to go for, and takes some Betdaq value at 21.0 and 13.0.
Ryanair Chase: Since Pricewise put up Captain Chris as his value bet for the Gold Cup (and the sheep backed him in to 14-1 in a place), Philip Hobbs’s Arkle winner has flopped in the Argento Chase and is out to anything from 20-1 to 33-1 with the bookies and a massive 45.0 on Betdaq, as I write.
When you bet ante-post, you have to assume a position of great arrogance: pretend you are the owner. If I had Captain Chris, I’d be torn between having a Gold Cup runner – we’d all love to have one – and the wiser option, the Ryanair.
Though the ground was blamed for it, and the lack of an outing (he’d unseated at Exeter), Captain Chris didn’t seem to stay when dismissed nearly 19 lengths by Kauto Star and Long Run in the King George.
Trainer Philip Hobbs said then that Captain Chris ‘still had it to prove’ before a Gold Cup decision was made. Well, all he proved in the Argento (pulled up) was that he needed another bucket load of excuses.
This is an animal that wears a tongue-tie, and I’m beginning to think (I don’t often think, but it passes the time): I don’t want to be on such a horse in the Gold Cup and there is no earthly reason why he should make up 17 and more lengths on the front pair.
I think they might switch to the Ryanair, for which he’s 16-1 all round. Except Betdaq, of course, where he’s offered at 21.0 this morning. I’ll have a pound.
Jewson Novices Chase: Wearing my owners’ colours (bright red face, dunces cap, if I get things wrong), I shall have a pound on Invictus in the 20-furlong Jewson for the same reason that I’ve backed Captain Chris in the Ryanair.
I could not envisage, as an owner, taking on Grands Crus in the RSA, even though I’ve already beaten the second favourite, Bob’s Worth, in the Reynoldstown.
The Reynoldstown is 3m but at Ascot not Cheltenham, and the question is would Invictus have beaten Bobs Worth had the Cheltenham hill been in front of them?
Otherwise, I was really impressed with Invictus that day and he could be Alan King’s best hope at the meeting. What to do, with the dual engagements?
Well, Betdaq came to my rescue (as ever). I could get 13.0 Invictus for the Jewson (only 7-1 with Hills). If Invictus does go for the RSA, his price won’t suddenly collapse, not unless Grands Crus drops out. So I look at it this way: I’m getting the overs for the Jewson, so I can afford a stakes switch to the RSA if I have to.
World Hurdle: In eight long years there has been only one winner of the World Hurdle, other than Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s.
With three wins each, they are the most successful horses in the history of the race, and ‘value’ is an improbable word to use when taking on such kings of the stamina.
And the problem with the huge Betdaq offers, when compared with the bookmakers, is that there is no certainty that the horses in question will run: when tackling a giant, David hopes Goliath crocks a leg; otherwise it’s prayer and a sling-shot.
David does win by those means; Goliath does fall; and Big Buck’s can’t go on forever but, despite the virus scare at Ditcheat, there is no evidence at the time of writing to suppose that anything will beat him.
A win bet Thousand Stars at 26.0 (7-1 with Ladbrokes) or Voler La Vedette at 28.0 (Labrokes 12-1) tends to tempt but may merely go to show how the bookies are shoring up against the river of money they are likely to get for Big Buck’s.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win (nap) LONGITUDE (2.35 Southwell)
BET 10pts win BIG EASY and 1.9pts win CLOUDY SPIRIT (3.25 Bangor)
BET 3.5pts win on each FABALU and VALLEY VIEW (3.55 Bangor)
BET 1.25pts win and place DAIS RETURN and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) DAWN COMMANDER (4.25 Bangor)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.5pts win CAPTAIN CHRIS (21.0, Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.5pts win INVICTUS (Jewson Novices Chase, Cheltenham)
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