HEY MISTER! BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman landed back-to-back naps when Mister Brightside (WON 4-5) yesterday followed up Thursday’s best bet, Polarisation (WON 4-5), for an 80% return on outlay two days running. It was his sixth winning nap out of nine, 11 up from the last 15.
IRISH OAKS DOUBLE WHAMMY: Last weekend Daqman landed a triple whammy (lay, win, place) on the Friday and a double whammy (win and lay) on the Saturday. Today there’s a double whammy in the Irish Oaks.
GOLD BANKER AT NEWBURY: Daqman goes for bull’s-eye (win 50) bets at the Curragh and in the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen, and has a gold banker at Newbury. His current standings:
NAPS: 11 out of 15
LAYS: 9 out of 10
CHALLENGE: Daqman 59, Pricewise 10 (overall 200-83)
ALL TOGETHER NOW: COOLMORE OAKS 1-2-3
3.05 The Curragh This race launched magic names like Australia, New Approach and Teofilo. Those well entered up with long-term Classic targets are the Ballydoyle pair, London and Shogun, while Jim Bolger, who saddled two of those stars, runs Cresendo.
5.50 The Curragh (Irish Oaks) Ribblesdale winner Curvy beat the boys in the Gallinule, pipping Epsom Derby third, Giovanni Canaletto.
Speedy Boarding, Covert Love, Gretchen and Words can all improve on a handful of lifetime runs. Words’ dam won this Irish Oaks in 2008 but a Classic winner wearing a hood? Not one for the purists.
Covert Love has so far been kept to a maximum of 10f. If she was ever going to win at that trip, she’d be likely to have to make all the running. She did.
Gretchen should be able to do up to 2m on breeding and has raced only twice. She can improve on her Ribblesdale fifth but will have to, and it’s doubtful she has a speed finish.
Though James Fanshawe is bullish – and the yard is on a hat-trick here – Speedy Boarding’s closest relatives are a handicapper and a Listed winner, and her sire has the lowest stallion stamina-index of the entire field.
The jury is still out on Jack Naylor, who won at a mile as a two-year-old and is bred for today’s trip, but was lack-lustre behind Qualify in the Epsom Oaks.
Jack Naylor may not have been suited by the course but more valid excuses were immediately made by connections of Star Of Seville (subsequently won French Oaks) and Musidora runner-up Together Forever, both badly bumped.
VERDICT: Of those placed behind Curvy in the Ribblesdale, Pleascach is essentially a miler; Pamona had been well beaten in a Listed. The Gallinule runner-up, Giovanni Canaletto, lacks speed; Prince Gagarin, was well stuffed in a Listed only yesterday.
Covert Love (stable form 3-5) could improve a ton for the extra trip and, in the absence of Epsom oaks winner Qualify, Words (same ownership as Curvy) and Together Forever look the pick of the Ballydoyle team.
Words and Curvy are the bluebloods of the race but Together Forever the only Group-1 winner (Fillies’ Mile). The 11.0 on BETDAQ is altogether terrific value, with Ladbrokes significantly shortest of the bookmakers at 8-1, as I write
Irish Oaks order in: Together Forever 1, Curvy 2, Words 3. It’s a 1-2-3 for Coolmore
CONSORT BANKER AS HORSE OF THE FUTURE
2.35 Newbury Usually only Sir Michael Stoute (2006 and 2011) can win this with a second-season animal, and he has another one today, which rates a banker bet.
Consort set Gleneagles a target in the St James’s Palace Stakes and the handsome colt looked a horse for the future that day. Mustadeem (maybe) and Intilaaq (almost certainly) should set him a good gallop.
Fire Fighting has been difficult to place, with a poor 1-19 strike rate since last being hiked in the handicap last September, and his form lifted to the Pattern is 2000; he’s not the usual dashing ‘go for it’ Mark Johnston type.
3.45 Newbury (Super Sprint) In the nine years of its existence, the race has had only one winner drawn higher than 14. In fact, stalls 10, 12, 13, 14 and 15 have nailed eight wins or seconds, which is disproportionate, suggesting bias.
However, you could equally say that stalls 1, 2, 5 and 6 have scored seven wins and seconds, which is also better than normal expectation. I’m certainly not going to look high.
The overall edge is not about the draw but the weight: only one winner has carried below 8st 5lb, suggesting that you need a speedster of high sales value to crack this. Like a certain Tiggy Wiggy, last year’s winner.
Judge it on the stables (two-year-old winners this season), and you get Johnston and Hannon 42 each, Fahey 15, the rest single figures.
Now add those draw, weight and stable stats together and you have to think in terms of Great Page (7.4 offers) and Hawatif (10.0), though you’d also have to consider Excessable very well handicapped.
Trainer Tim Easterby, who landed a huge gamble in the 2012 renewal, earmarked (‘a lovely horse’) Excessable for this race when he won at Ripon in April and his mark could be a let-off.
In fact, with one exception, the last six seasons have seen the winners of this all well fancied at 5-2 and 5-1 SP, and Excessable is favourite on BETDAQ this morning, though I’ll stick with the top of the sales-price ‘handicap’.
RASEN IS JUST RIGHT FOR 23.0 SILVER DUKE
2.55 Market Rasen (Summer Hurdle) Young horses take this – only one successful over the age of six in the decade – and John Ferguson goes for a hat-trick in the race with two recent winners, Commissioned and Buckwheat, both Group or Graded class.
Every single one of the last seven winners had raced no farther back than the end of May, and race fitness cannot be guaranteed for Hammersley Lake, Kie and Hurricane Hollow.
The stats suggest that we should short-list the Ferguson pair plus Manhattan Swing, Gran Maestro, Regulation and Purple ‘n Gold, though those out of the handicap must be checked out, as two from the depths of the long handicap have won in the decade.
Dr Richard Newland has Gioia Di Vita carrying just a pound over and he’s improved 9lb since winning the Ladbrokes Maiden at Worcester in May, winning in style on the same course on last day. There’s just a doubt that he won’t like the hill climb on the far side, but 13.5 offers dilute the doubt in my calculations.
Pick of the lightweights may be Silver Duke, who loves going right-handed. He’s fit from the Flat, up 10lb for sauntering home at Musselburgh in February, his rider delaying and delaying, still winning by a street. He’s huge at 23.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
Manhattan Swing won here at Rasen in the autumn, his first run since joining Brian Ellison from Ireland. He, too, is fit from the Flat, though the Ellison yard has flattened out lately, just one winner in the last fortnight.
Regulation is not penalised for a recent eight-lengths romp at Uttoxeter. He won here in May and Purple N Gold has been runner-up in a Listed on the course.
VERDICT: Richard Newland’s recent form is stunning, with figures of 11113 still standing, and Gioia Di Vita could have most to fear from Silver Duke. Both have tremendous jockeys for the weight: Sam Twiston-Davies and Brian Harding. Buckwheat looks best of the Ferguson pair.
LOVELY JUBBLY: DO A DEAL WITH DELL BOY!
3.30 Market Rasen (Summer Plate) Lost Legend has 4lb with which to make up the length and threequarters by which stablemate It’s A Gimme beat him in this race last year.
It’s A Gimme is also tightly handicapped with Hollow Penny, and the implication is that we need to look for an improver.
Pumped Up Kicks (five chases), Perfect Timing (7) and Dell’ Arca (only 3) are the least exposed over fences in the field.
Perfect Timing has gone up the handicap but deserves it on the back of his CD Rasen win a fortnight ago. Pumped Up Kicks has won twice when fresh and Dan Skelton’s stable is in form.
But what beats Dell’ Arca surely wins. A Graded hurdler, he was second to Coneygree over fences last autumn, third to Faugheen in a top-flight hurdle at the Punchestown festival in May: 8.2 on BETDAQ early mouse.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated; bankers settled at SP)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 4pts win GIOIA DI VITA, and 2.2pts win and place SILVER DUKE (2.55 Market Rasen)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) CONSORT (2.35 Newbury)
BET 5pts win PUMPED UP KICKS, and 4pts win DELL’ ARCA (3.30 Market Rasen)
BET 4.6pts win GREAT PAGE and 3pts win HAWATIF (3.45 Newbury)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts CURVY and BULL’S-EYE BET (win-50): 5pts win TOGETHER FOREVER (5.50 The Curragh)
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