9-4 WIN FOR BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman had one serious bet yesterday, a 10-pointer on Riflescope (WON 9-4), which followed on his biggest Thursday bet, nine points on Birdman (WON 4-5), for two naps out of two.
ECLIPSE SUPER-BANKER TODAY: Now he tries to boost his score of eight winning super-bankers (diamond and gold) out of 10, with one in the Eclipse Stakes today. The entire history of his super-bankers is:
WON 8-13 Romsdal (gold)
WON 8-13 Telescope (gold)
WON 8-13 Soapy Aitken (silver)
WON 4-5 Yorkidding (silver)
WON 2-5 Gleneagles (diamond)
WON 11-10 Leaderene (silver)
WON 13-8 Golden Horn (gold)
WON 10-11 Jack Hobbs (gold)
DAQMAN WELL AHEAD ON VALUE: There are three head-to-heads between Daqman and Pricewise, with the season’s score Daqman 45, Pricewise 9 (overall 186-82). Each tipster has two each in the 2.35 Sandown and 2.50 Haydock, one each in the Eclipse.
GOLDEN HORN RATES A DIAMOND BANKER
3.45 Sandown (Eclipse Stakes): Can conditions spoil Golden Horn’s great run when he lines up for a fifth consecutive win? I don’t think so.
He’s dropped back two furlongs; thunderstorms threaten; and, in a tactical small field, he could face a race of tactical gamesmanship.
I warned in my ABC Guide on Tuesday that The Grey Gatsby is defending the run of the older horses who have won this five times in a row, eight of the last 10, beating the Irish Derby winner in last year’s race.
The handicapper, who put up his rating to 127 (which would be in front of Golden Horn) when he beat Derby winner Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes, has dropped him again after his narrow defeat by Free Eagle at Royal Ascot.
He finished with a rattle and could do so again today, if Golden Horn has to lead, but thunderstorms would dull the rattle. He can handle good to soft but not soft.
Aidan O’Brien is going for a fantastic treble from the progeny of Fastnet Rock, running Cougar Mountain here, after the same stallion’s Qualify and Diamondsandrubies have secured the Epsom Oaks and the Pretty Polly Stakes.
But the dam’s side is not spectacular; his overall breeding is for a mile (he’s been kept to that trip, maximum, so far), and he’s blinkered first time.
Cougar Mountain stuck to sprinting as a three-year-old, and I wasted wee small hours looking for a July Cup and Nunthorpe runner who beat a Derby winner in the Eclipse!
It’s the sort of tale you’d find in the 1880s, not in the 21st century. A big price doesn’t mean that a horse is value. In some cases, 11.0 offers would look enticing if we knew we’d get a dramatic change of ground but Cougar Mountain would be the most inconvenienced by such a turn of events!
There is every indication that this year’s Classic generation is one of the best. Jack Hobbs looked spectacular in the Irish Derby, but Golden Horn beat him in the Dante, then demolished him at Epsom. I have to award the diamond banker of honour today. If gear changes are required in a tactical race, he has them!
WAADY WILL SPRINT IN BARRING ACCIDENT
2.00 Sandown (The Sprint Stakes) Three-year-olds start to take advantage of their allowances now: they’ve won this six times out of 10 in the decade. When an older horse has not started favourite, they’ve taken five out of the last six.
Another major clue is the draw: seven of the last nine winners have come from stalls 1 to 4. Waady ticks both boxes, and will win this barring accident.
He is unbeaten on the course and the class act against him, Mecca’s Angel, is out because of the fast ground, suggesting that any fears of a change of going are not justified.
2.35 Sandown (The Challenge) This time you want a four-year-old (seven out of the last nine seasons). But watch out: their winning SPs have been from 2-1 to 18-1, so not necessarily the obvious one.
At 5.5 favourite on BETDAQ early mouse, Basem, out of last year’s winning stall, is the obvious one, if only to confirm his CD swoop on front-runner Jacob Black in June.
Ifwecan and Fire Ship also like to lead, so this will take some getting off a fast pace. That suits 8.6 offer Spark Plug, if he’s not mentally spooked by his fall (clipped heels) in the Royal Hunt Cup when looking likely to challenge the winner, Gm Hopkins, whom he’d narrowly beaten at Newbury.
Three-year-olds are rare winners of this and Sahaafy was a disappointing favourite under a penalty in the Britannia. Those he beat earlier at Newmarket have since been stuck at class 3 and class 4 level.
Halation has also tried and failed, albeit narrowly, to climb into class 2, and is now 11lb higher than his last class-3 success.
Master Carpenter Gabrial’s Kaka, Tournament and You’re Fired need some cut in the ground, and connections are praying that thunderstorms arrive. I can’t bet that they will.
3.10 Sandown Most winners of this have had just two or three starts and only recently broken their maiden.
So it could pay to oppose up-in-grade Black Cherry and the consistent (as a wallet-drainer) Jellicle Ball.
Iconic (16.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) ran green behind Black Cherry at Goodwood and had to overcome a slow pace to score at Salisbury, with the runner-up winning her maiden since.
There is nothing between Bella Nostalgia and Blond Me (on a line through Althania) but Blond Me has bags of stamina in her pedigree, and the stiff Sandown finish could go her way. I’ll chase after the blond at 13.0
CUP CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR FARQUHAR
2.15 Haydock (Lancashire Oaks) John Gosden has won this four times in the decade. That’s one criterion for Criteria but she’s gone down twice to Miss Marjurie, and has never won on turf.
In fact, Miss Marjurie has beaten half the field and is the only Group winner in the race, though Jordan Princess (ground a worry today), favourite to beat her at Goodwood, got in one of those hill-climb pockets, and Lady Tiana was denied a clear run when third behind her over CD on the last day.
Queen Of Ice, too fresh on her belated return to action, is by Selkirk, so should love the cut in the ground. She beat Jordan Princess, Criteria and Miss Marjurie at Ascot last September, though has clearly had her problems since.
2.50 Haydock (Old Newton Cup) Four-year-olds are seven out of 10 in the decade, and Luca Cumani has won the race four times since 1997.
That’s two boxes ticked for Penhill, for whom excuses were made (not like the track) when he was allowed to coast in behind Watersmeet at Newmarket (Rowley, of course) in May.
Since he was favourite that day, with Ryan Moore booked, we can hardly assume that today’s race has always been the target, though Cumani fans will.
They will have to ignore the fact that the stable is missing strike badly: 12 of its last 13 runners have finished in the first four but only one has won.
Like Watersmeet, Battersea has finished well in front of Penhill, but will the pair act on the soft ground?
Apterix is lightly raced, and has won on good to soft. Could improve but needs to, raised from class 4 (yes, he won a class 3 on the last day but you cannot consider amateur-race form for a heat like this one).
Kinema has also won on good to soft but also failed to climb to this level, thus far (class 4 wins at best).
My first choice for the race is the filly Elbereth, a tasty 13.0 in the orange, unexposed at this trip on turf but galloped up the Epsom hill and toyed with Listed third Fire Fighting on Derby day. In fact, Andrew Balding thinks Elbereth. will get herself some black type, too.
Farquhar likes cut in the ground and a Chapple-Hyam handicapper is always likely to pop up when conditions are right. Had Penhill and Battersea beat en out of sight last autumn and lightly raced since: 15.0 offers on BETDAQ are too big.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 30 points, except banker settled at SP)
BET 12pts win WAADY (2.00 Sandown)
BET 5pts win QUEEN OF ICE (2.15 Haydock)
BET 6.6pts win BASEM and 4pts win SPARK PLUG (2.35 Sandown)
BET 2.5pts win and place ELBERETH, and 2pts win and place FARQUHAR (2.50 Haydock)
BET 2.5pts win and place BLOND ME, and 2pts win and place ICONIC (3.10 Sandown)
DIAMOND BANKER: BET 40pts win (nap) GOLDEN HORN (3.45 Sandown)
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