BIG-RACE BETS IN 320-1 DOUBLE: Racing was a slog on a deep and dirty sponge at Chester yesterday, so no score between Daqman and Pricewise (it remains 25-5 to Daqman) but it should be a clean fight at Ascot (3.45) and Haydock (3.25) today. Daqman raises his stake to win 50 and doubles up his tips to a maximum return of about 320-1.
SUPERFORM CUMANI RATES NAP: Daqman naps a horse at Ascot trained by Luca Cumani, who has had his last 14 runners finish in the first four, and he doubles and trebles that one with the two Lingfield Classic trial favourites, hoping for a better crack of the whip than from the short shots yesterday.
RICHARD HUGHES’ RUSSIAN TO WIN THE CUP!
3.45 Ascot (Victoria Cup) The bottom end of the handicap (below 9st) has won 14 of the last 17, with 10 of the last 13 winners aged four or five.
It’s been a pretty even break from the stalls: in the decade at Ascot (nine seasons), 1, 7, 7, 9 have won for the low drawn; 13, 13, 16 for the middle; and 21, 25 for the high. So it’s probably a question of finding where the pace is in the three groups, as they may split across the track.
LOW VERDICT: I can’t find a pace horse here, and the best of this group – Baraweez and Buckstay – have question marks of distance and weight over them.
Baraweez progressed 24lb last year and was not disgraced in the Lincoln: with that under his belt, can he improve again for a stable in form?
Buckstay has never raced over less than a mile before. Chil The Kite has to give weight all round but his yard won the Dee Stakes yesterday. Redvers normally needs a run back. Jallota hasn’t won for nearly two years but remains on a high mark.
Big Baz was third in the Newbury Spring Cup off today’s mark, but is 15lb higher than for his last turf success. Cheekpieces have been added to Patentar’s tongue-tie.
Suzi’s Connoisseur has had a run back, is claimed off, and hooded for the first time, but Stuart Williams’ horses are not finding enough at the moment. So Beloved’s rating barely moved in almost two years.
MIDDLE VERDICT: No definite pace horses here either, though Professor has been known to lead and Outback Traveller likes to be in the van.
He improved only a pound or two all last year until suddenly shooting clear over today’s CD. That was a class lower, and he was tonked a stone, but he was only just run out of it on his return.
Last year’s runner-up, Glen Moss, now six, is back, 3lb higher, but claimed off and in the low 10 stalls, whereas he came out of gate 29 last season.
Bronze Angel is slipping down the handicap but has run his best races from July onwards. Emell was rejuvenated by blinkers at Haydock (beat Professor, Lincoln and Hawkeyethenoo) but he couldn’t follow up.
Zarwaan was fifth in the Britannia at the royal meeting, and was well backed for the Lincoln (sixth). With that under his belt, he looks interesting dropped back a furlong.
American Hope ran a terrific race at Ascot over a mile last July, the ‘moral’, beaten a neck, giving 13lb to the winner, but he’s quirky and has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
HIGH VERDICT: Lunar Deity takes a keen hold but the pace may be set by Lincoln, who made all at Chester in September and led the Lincoln field in March, until two out.
Shyron has been an improver on AW. Shared Equity has won only in class 4. Bertiewhittle was second in this in 2013 but 19th last year.
Speculative Bid stopped Outback Traveller a head at Kempton last month but was receiving a stone. Dream Spirit is a dark horse; lightly raced and goes well fresh.
Russian Realm, formerly at the Stoute yard, was made favourite over this CD for the Buckingham Palace Stakes at the royal meeting but was drawn on the wrong side.
The same thing happened over a mile in October, when he led at 6f and 7f but his high-drawn group was beaten by the other side. Cheveley Park Stud continue to race him now as a gelding.
He goes particularly well fresh, and Richard Hughes is booked. Stablemate Highland Acclaim has always done best at 6f and, though the trainer thinks he’ll get a mile, he usually needs a run back.
Heaven’s Guest, who won over CD in 2013 and took the Bunbury Cup last July, is in much better form now than when down the field last year. Jack Garrity takes off a valuable 5lb.
FINAL VERDICT: 1 Russian Realm (16.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) 2 Heavens Guest (20.0), 3 Zarwaan (14.0)
PENHILL IS NAPPED FOR CAN’T-LOSE CUMANI
2.00 Ascot Four-year-olds have won three of the four runnings of this, a race which has never yet gone to the favourite.
Alan King, who won it with Grumeti in 2012, sends him out again off 7lb higher, after achieving 153 over hurdles and 142 over fences at one stage since.
Grumeti had never been out of the frame in his last two seasons on the Flat, with three wins and five places from eight starts, and he looked a solid win and place bet at 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Penhill (nap) was around 4.0 favourite, and has to be backed, based on that four-year-old edge, and on the form of his stable. Luca Cumani is 14111124123233, and is ‘very pleased’ with Penhill’s homework.
3.10 Ascot The form of Temptress (offers of 6.6) tailed off last season but it may be significant that she returns to Ascot where she slammed Felwah more than four lengths in the summer. Felwah then won two good handicaps.
GIGGINSTOWN PLAN BIG SWINTON SWEEP-UP
3.25 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) Trainer Evan Williams goes for a hat-trick, after winning this with lightweights, which both run again today.
Last year’s winner, Ballyglasheen, is down to the same mark after failing to score since, and the 2013 hero, Barizan, is 9lb higher for a different stable.
But Williams still has two runners: he also saddles Court Minstrel but his high weight has been carried only twice since the race’s inception in 1978.
Philip Hobbs, who has Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, Cheltenian, right at the top of the handicap, is another hoping class will tell, but jockey Richard Johnson will be looking over his shoulder for Handiwork who finished strongly, fourth, in that Ayr championship.
Rayvin Black’s second in the Imperial Cup gives him a big shout, back to 2m. His form figures are spoiled only by poor runs when stepped up to 2m 4f, and he’s a huge price at 15.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The Plan Man (offers of 10.5) is a Gigginstown contender for Mr Shrewdie, Tony Martin, with Bryan Cooper coming over to do the steering.
The form of his Fairyhouse fourth last month was boosted by winner and second at the Punchestown Festival.
Front-runners Arzal and Rathealy could give you trades. Rathealy is only four and that age group won three times around the turn of the century and was back on the scoresheet last year.
CHRISTOPHERMARLOWE SHOULD PROGRESS
2.20 Lingfield Oaks Trial We had an Epsom Oaks runner-up from this in 2009 and 2013, but the last Lingfield-trial winner to go on to Classic glory was Ramruma (1999).
Wedding Vow is likely to be a warm favourite on the strength of her Gowran second to the subsequent Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winner, Legatissimo.
I wouldn’t bet against her but I wouldn’t get involved at odds on a non-winner in a field of fillies. I’ll play some more Daq Multiples.
2.55 Lingfield Derby Trial Luca Cumani (Bartholomew Fair) won this with his subsequent 1998 Derby winner, High-Rise, and John Gosden (Christophermarlowe) with Epsom fourth Percussionist (2004).
And, though Aidan O’Brien has won the trial three times, one didn’t race again and the two others were sixth and seventh at Epsom.
Christophermarlowe won the trial at the Spring meeting there, and should continue to progress.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points, unless stated)
BET 10pts win (nap) PENHILL, and 2.5pts win and place GRUMETI (2.00 Ascot)
BET 5.3pts win TEMPTRESS (3.10 Ascot)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (staked to win 50): 5.2pts win THE PLAN MAN and 3.5pts win RAYVIN BLACK (3.25 Haydock)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (staked to win 50): 3.8pts win ZARWAAN, 3.2pts win RUSSIAN REALM, 2.5pts win and place HEAVEN’S GUEST (3.45 Ascot)
DAQ MULTIPLES (1): Back the bull’s-eye bets in six 1pt win doubles (2 x 3).
DAQ MULTIPLES (2): 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble PENHILL (2.00 Ascot) with WEDDING VOW (2.20 Lingfield) and CHRISTOPHERMARLOWE (2.55 Lingfield)
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