6.0 LOVE LANDS ANOTHER NAP: Daqman has had a winner a day this week, crucially his last two naps, yesterday backing up Thursday’s gamble on Suffused (WON 8-13) with another steamer, Covert Love (WON 3-1 from 6.0 on BETDAQ).
6-0 IN THE VALUE CHALLENGE: It was also six-love at the last encounter in the Daqman v Pricewise challenge, when Pricewise failed to score against Daqman at the grand-slam meeting, Royal Ascot. Today: 3.25 Newmarket, 3.45 Newcastle, 6.30 The Curragh.
DERBY 1: Daqman previewed the Irish Derby on Tuesday (see Archive) and updated his ABC guide yesterday. Now here’s his verdict on tonight’s Classic at The Curragh: is it a one-horse race?
DERBY 2: He finds that the Pitman’s Derby (Northumberland Plate, ABC preview Wednesday; see Archive) is a very tight handicap. Daqman’s answer is to go for the potential improvers.
DERBY 1: NEARLY CAUGHT OUT BY THE DRAW
3.45 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate) Last year’s winner and runner-up, Angel Gabrial and Suegioo, meet again, with precious little between them now, nor indeed between Suegioo and Nearly Caught on recent form at Haydock.
But there is one big difference: Angel Gabrial and Suegioo have together raced a total of 50 times, whereas Nearly Caught – sixth in last year’s Cesarewitch – has had just a dozen starts and could still be improving.
Nearly Caught was trying to give the winner, Seamour, 16lb in that Haydock race, and is 7lb better off here, though Seamour could be up to taking another big step, as that was only his sixth race ever.
I’m going to suggest that Nearly Caught, Seamour and Oasis Fantasy (13 starts in his career) are comparatively unexposed, are the right age and are primed for this.
Seamour and Nearly Caught have not been seen since that Haydock race and will be hard to beat.
But Oasis Fantasy and Australia star jockey Chad Schofield could be the surprise packet; surprise because ‘Fantasy’ is by Oasis Dream, whose progeny is largely associated with milers, except for that tough Henry Cecil mare Midday.
For that reason, Oasis Fantasy had been kept to a mile and a half at most, even though displaying stamina, until going down narrowly to Quest For More (1m 6f) at Goodwood last month.
Now handicapped to dead-heat but Oasis Fantasy was given plenty to do that day, his jockey assuming he needed nursing to get the trip.
Oasis Fantasy then came from a long way back to finish third to Blue Surf at the Epsom Derby meeting, again re-handicapped to dead-heat now.
My number-one must be Nearly Caught because of his favourable draw but Oasis Fantasy – from the Trip To Paris Gold Cup team – can be buried from his wide berth, and then show his turn of foot.
Chester Cup fourth (to Trip To Paris), but only eighth in that Haydock race won by Seamour, Gabrial’s King is also well drawn and can do better.
Chester Cup placed horses have won this three years running, and he is reunited with Paul Hanagan for the first time since they were a winning combo more than three years back. Well drawn in 8.
Daqman’s order in: 1 Nearly Caught, 2 Gabrial’s King, 3 Oasis Fantasy
Value verdict: Nearly Caught at 18.0 on BETDAQ this morning, Oasis Fantasy at 15.5, Gabrial’s King at 12.0. Pricewise has two bets, of which the ground has gone against Clever Cookie (no value left) but Rite To Reign (also shortish) is well drawn and likely to enjoy the fast pace.
DERBY 2: JACK THE ACE IN THE CURRAGH PACK
6.30 The Curragh (Irish Derby) Jack Hobbs is from a family that doesn’t do best in its Classic season, more likely a star at four or five years old.
So he’s done precociously well on his learning curve, second in the Epsom Derby, a clear winner without Golden Horn, and he should again beat Storm The Stars and Giovanni Canaletto, who looked more like St Leger candidates.
Instead of Giovanni (full brother to Derby winner Ruler Of The World), Ryan Moore prefers the other Galileo in the race, Highland Reel.
Three lengths behind New Bay in the French 2,000 Guineas, Highland Reel halved that deficit in their Derby at Chantilly (1m 2f) when he finished second.
A half-brother to Australian, the colt showed plenty of speed on a firm surface as a two-year-old but has been confined to easy ground in his two French forays this term.
Though he’s by Galileo, who has sired four winners of the Curragh Classic, his overall breeding profile is more that of an Eclipse winner, and his French route suggests that O’Brien thought so, too.
It didn’t quite work. Moreover, the French Classic form has been let down by New Bay’s French Guineas conqueror, Make Believe, at Royal Ascot.
Ballydoyle’s third colt, Kilimanjaro, is a hooded hopeful, a stone off Jack Hobbs on official ratings, and their filly, Qualify, is more likely to threaten.
How good is her Epsom Oaks success, when she sailed by 1,000 Guineas winner, Legatissimo? Well, Legatissimo was running out of steam and no wonder Qualify’s step up in trip (she flopped in the Guineas) wrought improvement.
She is related to a Park Hill (fillies’ St Leger) winner and a second, and she looks nailed on to win that race herself later in the year.
But today the least exposed of the colts who have not so far failed in their bid for fame can be expected to fight out the finish: Jack Hobbs and Radanpour.
Radanpour is three from three, but has only ‘beaten nothing well’ so far. Stamina stacks up on both sides of the pedigree and, though he’d prefer an easier surface, showed a turn of foot on top of the ground last time.
It’s always possible that one of the Ballydoyle trio of colts will improve on what they’ve done, that Highland Reel gets the trip despite breeding doubts, but we can’t bet that way. We can only bet on form and potential improvement. In that case the result would be something like:
Daqman’s order in: 1 Jack Hobbs, 2 Radanpour, 3 Highland Reel
Value verdict: Only a price like the 20.0 offers Radanpour on BETDAQ, and the fact that the orange adds up to only 101% (last year’s SP Total was 119%), permits a small win-and-place alternative to Jack Hobbs, who is deserving of banker status. He would be a diamond bet but the race could be uncompromisingly tactical.
NEWMARKET: WANNABE CAN A WINNER BE
2.00 Newcastle (Chipchase Stakes) Danzeno beat a more modest turn-out for this race last year but has targeted the prize again and may be good enough with Mattmu’s form dipping last time (he has to carry a penalty).
The snag with Watchable is that he’s best caught fresh, and this is a quick return to the track after his Wokingham fifth.
2.35 Newcastle Charles Hills, who came of age with a tremendous Royal Ascot double (Dutch Connection and Muhaarar) sends Tanzeel to Newcastle, his only runner at the meeting.
He’s hoping to see him carry on where he left off as a sprinter of great potential last season but now minus his mental hindrance (he’s been gelded). Great bet at 8.6 on BETDAQ.
3.25 Newmarket (Criterion Stakes) This is written off as a bogey race for three-year-olds until you check it out properly, and discover – for instance – that only two outsiders of that generation have run in it since Libranno won for the age group in 2011.
Three-year-olds have major 1m and 1m 4f targets throughout the Pattern in their Classic season and no top trainer wants to think of them falling through the gap and being 7f or 1m 2f types, still worse that their charge is not good enough for the Jersey Stakes (7f) or the Eclipse (1m 2f), the major events at those two trips.
Sons of Barry Hills had the one-two in the Jersey and here’s Barry, himself, in his final season, with Markaz, who has run well in the Pattern at 6f and 7f all year without winning.
The fact remains that older horses have won this nine years out of 10. Of these Lincoln and Outback Traveller are handicappers trying to make a name for themselves.
I prefer Wannabe Yours (6.4 on BETDAQ, as I write) who won at this level on this ground last backend, pipping today’s favourite, Hors De Combat, who tended to throw the race away (head held high). There may not be much between them again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as stated; place bets at Newcastle are to cover win stakes)
BET (to win 20 points) 10pts win DANZENO (2.00 Newcastle)
BET (to win 30) 3.5pts win TANZEEL (2.35 Newcastle)
BET (to win 30): 5.5pts win WANNABE YOURS and 3.75pts win MARKAZ (3.25 Newmarket)
TON-UP BETS (win 100): 9pts win GABRIALS KING, 6.8pts win and 2.5pts place OASIS FANTASY, 5.8pts win and 2pts place NEARLY CAUGHT (3.45 Newcastle)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap at SP) JACK HOBBS, and (win 20) 1pt win and place RADANPOUR (6.30 The Curragh)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Wannabe Yours and Markaz (3.25 Newmarket) with Gabrials King, Oasis Fantasy and Nearly Caught (3.45 Newcastle)
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