NOW SIX BANKERS UP IN A ROW: Daqman’s banker naps are unbeaten since the last Newmarket meeting, Quiet Reflection (WON 5-6) making it six in a row yesterday with consummate ease:
WON 1-2 Shalaa (gold banker)
WON 10-11 Donna Graciosa (banker)
WON 5-6 Dark Emerald (banker)
WON 10-11 Kayla (banker)
WON 8-11 Vazirabad (banker)
WON 5-6 Quiet Reflection (banker)
AND THREE CONSECUTIVE LAYS: Daqman landed a Double Whammy in the banker race by cheekily opposing the Pricewise selection, Zebstar, with a place lay, taking him to three lays in a row this week:
WIN Bathos (unplaced 4-1)
WIN Grendisar (4th 9-4 favourite)
WIN Zebstar, place (unplaced 12-1)
DAQMAN 3-0 WIN TAKES HIM TO 95: Daqman also beat Pricewise with two placed horses but only Quick Wit (2nd 8-1) counts because Alamode (2nd 10-1) was in a losing race. That gave him a 3-0 win over his Racing Post rival, and takes the match scoreline to Daqman 95, Pricewise 15. Now for the Cesarewitch, with stakes raised for a ton up!
23.0 FOX RATES THE CUNNING-PUNTERS’ PICK
3.50 Newmarket (Cesarewitch) How vital is a low stall? In the last nine years, 13 horses in the first two (out of 18) came from 1-to-13 and a class animal who gets such a draw is a likely winner.
Aaim To Prosper (2012), Detroit City (2006), Sergeant Cecil (2005) and Landing Light (2003) all carried between 9st and 9st 10lb. All had a low stall. All won.
And this year’s race is between 2lb and 4lb lower class than in the last few seasons. That helps the high weights. So does the drying ground.
It’s also important to have had a light(ish) campaign and to be capable of running in Group races on the Flat or Graded over the sticks. It all points to Oriental Fox – 23.0 on BETDAQ today early mouse – a CD scorer as winner of the Trial for this race two years ago.
He had a long time off with fetlock injury but came back to win the Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m 5f) at Royal Ascot and has been placed twice in his three races since, all Group contests at shorter trips. That makes him currently a Hidden Horse as far as handicaps are concerned, hence the huge offers.
Heartbreak City, my Hot Spot for the race, also has a good draw from gate 9. The way he scored at York, he could have been put into the race at any time, and won as he liked, such was his comfortable cruising speed.
My ABC Guide on Thursday (see Archive) had Low Key, Cassells Rock and Montefeltro ticking the boxes but all have high draws.
However, Low Key came from a long way back when winning this year’s Trial, and I can see him passing the tired horses from the 2m marker.
But the same applies to Quick Jack, though he has one of the very worst draws from gate 30. That makes two in my final seven trained by Tony Martin.
Sir Mark Prescott also has two in my short-list, but High Secret has a high stall, and William of Orange, with George Baker up, looks nailed on for a good run here from gate 7 after running so well in the Goodwood Stakes.
Pricewise has tipped four, but I’m staking only two; otherwise I’ll be making his mistake about value. You know by now that I prefer to cover the main stakes with small-stakes savers, which don’t take the edge off the main position.
The two I nominate are the best drawn of my short-list: Oriental Fox (at 23.0) and William of Orange (11.5 offers). My lucky seven are:
DAQMAN’S CESAREWITCH ORDER-IN: 1 Oriental Fox, 2 William of Orange, 3 Low Key (ABC tip), 4 Heartbreak City (Hot Spot), 5 Quick Jack, 6 High Secret, 7 Nearly Caught
THIS IS GELDED GIFTED MASTER’S GUINEAS!
2.35 Newmarket (Autumn Stakes) Prepare to switch your bets if Ibn Malik wins a street! He was brushed aside by Emotionless on the last day and an easy success for him in this could change the market for the Dewhurst.
Aidan O’Brien takes him on with one lower down the food chain, Beacon Rock, but I my flabber was gasted by the ultra-smart performance of Gifted Master last weekend.
Gifted Master had already run Buratino to half a length in the Spring, and that one has dueled with Air Force Blue (one win apiece) and been beaten only half a length by Shalaa.
As a gelding, Gifted Master can’t run in the Classics, even if he’s seen to be capable of this mile, as I think he is. So I’m regarding this as his Guineas.
He’s the outsider of the three at 4.6 on BETDAQ this morning, but there’s only a 0.6 separating their offers in the orange.
AIR FORCE HAS THE EDGE IN DEWHURST BATTLE
3.10 Newmarket (Dewhurst Stakes) Yesterday’s punters’ dilemma of a two-year-old classic, the Fillies Mile, turned out to be a favourite’s race.
The Big Two battle of Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden was, in fact, a procession for O’Brien, and Gosden can hope for only a place here with Tashweeq.
But also impressive yesterday – and well highlighted in advance by Channel-4 (good spot, chocolate man) – was the Oh So Sharp success of First Victory for Godolphin.
Godolphin now step into the main ring, with Emotionless the one pressing O’Brien’s Air Force Blue for the favourite’s spot.
The course-and-distance winner in the race is Sanus Per Aquam, who beat Tasleet that day, form which ties in with superfast Shalaa.
And you could argue that the one Shalaa beat in the Middle Park, Buratino, is a key horse, as he finished further behind Air Force Blue in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh.
Emotionless has yet to beat anything out of the ordinary – unless Ibn Malik has won the Autumn Stakes with ease – but travels so well that we have no idea what will happen when they get him at it.
Experience (Air Force Blue 4 runs, Emotionless 2) and the ground (Air Force Blue has won on yielding) may hand it to the O’Brien colt. In fact, there were nerves before he scored on yielding, but he won smoothly, overcoming any aversion like a very good horse.
I’m not confident enough at the banker stakes required by his price, but a 10-pointer would win back some of my stakes on the big handicap, and I’ll put Air Force Blue in my mutltiples as double-your-money leverage.
PERSUN’S EPSOM FORM COULD TRANSLATE
1.45 York Persun (13.5 on BETDAQ as I write) took the bend well and scooted up the straight at Epsom, so this track should suit. Progressive since sent up with the pace, whereas the obvious front-runner Mutasayyid is badly drawn.
Arabian Illusion’s Goodwood success was in a very slow time, and the big danger is Arthenus (5.0), whose Ascot form has been boosted.
3.25 York (Sprint Trophy) This is a pinstickers’ race, with the only potential edges said to be a middle-high draw and a stable in form.
But the draw seems as broad as it is long, with the low half of the stalls 4 to 10 gaining 11 placings in the last six years, and the high 9 to 19 also scoring 11.
I’ll take a hidden horse; York CD winner Aetna (gate 5) has got her ground and is trained down the road by Mick Easterby, who lives to have a tilt at the bookies here. Offers in the BETDAQ orange of 14.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 7.5pts win ARTHENUS and 2.4pts win PERSUN (1.45 York)
BET 8pts win (nap) GIFTED MASTER (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 10pts win (at SP) AIR FORCE BLUE (3.10 Newmarket)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 3.8pts win and place AETNA (Hidden Horse, 3.25 York)
TON-UP BETS (to win 100): 9.5pts win WILLIAM OF ORANGE, and 4.5pts win and place ORIENTAL FOX (3.50 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Gifted Master (2.35 Newmarket) and Air Force Blue (3.10 Newmarket) with Oriental Fox and William of Orange (3.50 Newmarket)
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