RELAX! BULL’S-EYE BETS ARE BACK: Daqman’s Bull’s-Eye Bets, which won more than 200 points twice last year, are back today with a high-stakes tilt at the big chase at Sandown, with two arrows from the oche, on Relax and Unioniste.
DAQMAN LEADS THREE-RACE BATTLE: That race, the 3.35 is one of three on the Esher course in which Daqman does battle with Pricewise, their current score at Daqman 10, Pricewise 6 (overall 118-65). The two other races are the 1.50 and 3.00.
I LOVE AMORE AND McCOY AT SANDOWN
12.10 Sandown Today’s Sandown card suffers from its proximity to the New Year’s Day bash, with the Tolworth the most disappointing turn-out. Morning rain was expected to make the going soft on all courses.
David Pipe, on 20 losers in a row since Boxing Day, saddles two in the opener: the only two that have raced over hurdles, in fact. Classical Art was class 5 on the Flat and hasn’t shown much under NH Rules but Rathealy, class-3 Flat winner at Galway, has been placed. Both the Galway win and the hurdles place were on heavy ground.
John Ferguson is the trainer in form (current results of horses to finish 23423211012) and Arabian Revolution should go well. New Tarabela is a maiden but Arabian Revolution, Norse Light and Tea In Transvaal all won in class-5 on the Flat.
It’s an important race for me, not for betting but for checking out the ground and assessing the form of the Pipe horses for later on.
12.40 Sandown Nicky Henderson had 11 consecutive losers on the first day of the year and, though three from three in this, swerves the meeting until the Tolworth.
Aurore d’Estruval split the hot novice Irving and the Leopardstown Ryanair third, Arctic Fire, in the Fighting Fifth and, though Irving flopped badly in the Christmas Hurdle, the only other to show any form at this level is Mischievous Milly, twice beaten in Listeds by Glen’s Melody before that one ran up to Quevega in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
So this race seems very much a question of whether Milly can return to that form after almost a year off, well treated here, getting 8lb from Aurore d’Estruval.
Dark Spirit is an improver, and how! She’s 34lb higher than when she won a seller 14 months ago and, though she missed out on a four-timer at Cheltenham in November, bagged a fourth win returned to a conventional track at Ascot, storming so far clear that she was clouted 16lb.
But today is not a handicap and the Racing Post Ratings team think she’s already done enough to be reckoned only a pound behind Aurore d’Estruval at the weights in their future ratings for today’s contest. So 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning looked tempting.
1.50 Sandown When William’s Wishes won this in 2013 off a 5lb lower mark, it took him to five from five over fences but he’s struggled in three starts since, all in top-class company, though not doing too badly in the Tingle Creek on his second run after a year off and could be the value here at around 5.0 this morning on BETDAQ, dropped in class.
Horses trained by Donald McCain continue to disappoint (1-35), albeit Desert Cry was winning at this time last year (holds Le Bacardy). The tricky Mr Mole likes to dominate and usually wins in small fields; he would have difficulty holding Brick Red on revised terms on their one-two at Exeter but Brick Red is notoriously hard to win with. Parsnip Pete prefers the tight turns of Aintree and Southwell.
Dance Floor King has progressed 29lb over fences, according to the handicapper, 19lb higher than his only other open-handicap start, which he won at Wincanton. That gets him in here, if he carries 3lb overweight.
Jumps Road steps out of novice company for the first time off a mark 4lb lower than his hurdles rating though he, too, is out of the handicap, but by only 1lb.
2.25 Sandown (Tolworth Hurdle) Nicky Henderson is currently 113 in the Tolworth, both his winners coming to it from their maiden success and achieving 142 and 148 marks in this. L’Ami Serge is already on 149 after winning both the Gerry Feilden and the Ascot Supreme Novice Trial.
But is he really that good? He was beaten six races in a row in France for Guillaume Macaire, and the horse he beat in a small field (two finished) on the last day had won only a maiden. The runner-up in that maiden has gone down 20 length since.
With four wins from his last five starters, one of them Rock On Ruby, Harry Fry is hoping that Shelford will give Jolly’s Cracked It a good lead. He only scrambled home at Ascot for lack of a strong gallop.
Shelford, fourth in The Ladbroke two weeks back, is the stamina horse in the race so may have no alternative but to crack on and make a test of it, though he’s 10lb in arrears on the ratings, if the rise and rise of L’Ami Serge can be believed.
L’Ami Serge may be all his rating says but Jolly’s Cracked It is the value at 5.3 on BETDAQ this morning. A big horse who’s taken time to strengthen, he ‘could be anything.’
3.00 Sandown There’s been only one winner above 11st 3lb and none older than six in the five years of this. All five favourites fitted these stats, but all were losers; punters had gone for the wrong one every time.
Paul Nicholls’ latest French import, Bouvreuil (6.0 on BETDAQ early mouse), will love the mud and has Sean Bowen’s claim giving him every chance of an English debut win.
The trainer won this race with a four-year-old in 2008, and Bouvreuil’s 9st 12lb will count for a lot in the conditions against several front-runners, including fellow bottomweight Rayvin Black who, along with Balgarry, is likely to be a target on the final hill.
Balgarry has taken them along in major races at the Cheltenham festival (2012 over further) and in the The Ladbroke at Ascot two weeks ago after a long holiday. He looks poised for this but hasn’t won for almost three years and the stable is in modest form, getting an average of only 36% from each horse’s potential. Can you bet he’ll hang on in the mud, getting only 8lb from Amore Alato?
Amore Alato (offers around 5.0) is the class horse of the race, giving a stone when narrowly beaten in a Listed over the Sandown CD last month, the fourth horse, Ruacana, going on to win a class 2 like this one on New Year’s Day. So I see this as McCoy v Bowen, the master against the star apprentice.
3.35 Sandown Another handicap that’s hard for top weights to win but this time – over three miles of fences in the mud – older, experienced animals usually take control.
Venetia Williams’ horses seem to love deep ground and 10-year-old Relax won this last year. He’s 5lb higher but is a big, galloping sort who stayed well up the final hill that day.
Unioniste is experienced despite his age and should come on from the Hennessy. He drops down from Listed and Graded level for the first time in nearly two years, now 5lb lower than his Great Yorkshire third last January.
Bertie Boru is up 10lb for back-to-back success at a lower level and needs to improve his jumping. Not a problem for Tinker Time, another improver, only seven, who has already won in this grade but his record is in small fields. Count Guide Deiro has a featherwieght with Jamie Bargary’s claim but Accordions prefer top of the ground.
ARTHUR KING AT THIS WINCANTON TRIP
2.05 Wincanton Paul Nicholls sets his stall out at his home meeting but has always thought Atlantic Roller needs a sound surface. Arthur’s Oak, for soft-ground specialist Venetia Williams, jumps well at home but found a fast 2m catching him out at Warwick.
The extra distance will slow the pace, and therefore the jumping, and the son of Kayf Tara will appreciate the trip in more ways than one.
2.40 Wincanton David Pipe goes for a hat-trick in this race and the performance of Volt Face here will tell us whether Balgarry is one the boil at Sandown. Volt Face was aimed high after a novice success and should have won on his reappearance at Towcester but slipped on the bend.
What makes this trappy is that both Paul Nicholls and Alan King run two. But Ditcheat stable plans are for Provo to go chasing so we assume that Sam Twiston-Davies wants to get to know this horse and that this is a prep.
Earthmoves is the more exciting for me, half-brother to Ptit Zig, and now getting the trip and ground he needs. But, as we saw with the same stable’s Mon Perrain (won 25-1) and Just A Par (only fourth at 8-1), you’ll have to back both.
3.15 Wincanton Black River is not going to be a big price here but those who saw him slam Vautour six lengths in France have been waiting for him to strike form in England and, now he’s off the ground with a win at Taunton, should be flying.
Big Fella Thanks is a memory of yesterday (won this two years ago) and Rebel Rebellion needs the Aintree fences so I make another young improver, Tango De Juilley, the danger. In fact, at the offers on BETDAQ early mouse, I took 6.2 Tango as an early position.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except in the last race):
BET 4pts win on each DARK SPIRIT and (stakes saver) AURORE D’ESTRUVAL (12.40 Sandown)
BET 6.5pts win WILLIAM’S WISHES (1.50 Sandown)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) ARTHUR’S OAK (2.05 Wincanton)
BET 7pts win JOLLY’S CRACKED IT (2.25 Sandown)
BET 10pts win EARTHMOVES and 6pts win PROVO (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 7.5pts win AMORE ALATO and 6pts win BOUVREUIL (3.00 Sandown)
BET 5.5pts win TANGO DE JUILLEY and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) BLACK RIVER (3.15 Wincanton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 12.5pts win UNIONISTE and 8pts win RELAX (3.35 Sandown)
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