IT’S ANOTHER DOUBLE WHAMMY UP: Daqman’s only double whammy to survive the weather yesterday was a win bet on Vibrato Valtat (WON 11-4), with Grandouet (4th 3-1) a lay in the same race, following Boxing Day’s King George success of Silviniaco Conti (WON 6-5), with the lay on Champagne Fever (4th 9-2).
SHORT-HEADED IN WELSH NATIONAL: The Daqman v Pricewise challenge remains at 9-5 to Daqman (117-64 overall) with both tipsters going close on the short-headed Benvolio (2nd 11-1) in the Welsh Grand National, for which Daqman took 12.5 on BETDAQ. It became his first choice, when Midnight Prayer was withdrawn.
GENERATIONS CLASH IN THE LEXUS: Today Daqman and Pricewise clash in a puzzle of a Christmas Hurdle (1.50) and ‘fabulous clash of the generations’ for the Lexus Chase (2.55) at Leopardstown in Ireland this afternoon.
SAM TO MAKE HIS MARK AS LEXUS WINNER
12.50 Leopardstown No horses have been successful in this carrying more than 10st 9lb on any kind of ground, and we saw yesterday in England and Ireland the two big handicap winners scoring on heavy off 10st 8lb and 10st 9lb.
Tony Martin, trainer of the big Leopardstown first-day winner, Living Next Door (won 20-1), has schemed Elishpour into a winning slot in this one, a four-year-old to follow success for the same age group last year at 14-1. But we have no evidence in the good book that Elishpour likes the ground.
The known mudlarks in the bottom half of the handicap are Off The Charts, Horendus Hulabaloo (absent 261 days), Kashline, Face Value, and Paul Nolan’s little Triplets Joy.
Kashline is interesting, blinkered first time., suggesting that today is ‘go.’ Colin Bowe’s runners have all started massive odds recently but this one will be reappearing in his first hurdle for 33 months, more than a stone below his winning chase mark.
Trainer Bowe has hit the headlines this season, with Little King Robin among the favourites for the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. She will be looking for a boost later on today in the Christmas Huyrdle from Leiutenant Colonel, who beat her in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse in November.
1.20 Leopardstown This was the launch-pad of the horse they couldnt believe: Lord Windermere won this in 2012 but he was a double-figure price leading up to the RSA at Cheltenham (won 8-1) and cold-shouldered altogether for the Gold Cup the following year (won 20-1).
Lord Windermere runs in the Lexus today (2.55). Meanwhile, this beginners’ chase is redemption day for Un Atout, the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdler of 2013 (earlier fourth in the Supreme at Cheltenham), who has had only one race since, his first chase, when he blundered his chance away.
Tony McCoy, who drew a blank on the opening day, rides Carriganog, whose fourth of five, unfancied at Navan, looks a tad better after the winner, Clarcam, followed up in Boxing Day’s classy Racing Post Novice Chase.
But Carriganog has to make up a stone on Sizing Codelco, who was second to Clarcam in that Navan race, the ‘moral’ in fact, as he was beaten five lengths giving 9lb to the winner.
And, since Real Steel was a poor fourth to Clarcam in the Racing Post race, Sizing Codelco must be the bet today, Real Steel having beaten Le Vent D’Antan at Naas in November. There’s just the little matter of Un Atout.
1.50 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle) Noel Meade and Wille Mullins – two wins each since 2005 – regularly farm this, and they clash again here, Mullins three-handed but Meade relying on the 2012 winner, Monksland, in his first race since.
Monksland beat Zaidpour that day and Zaidpour went on to win this Christmas Hurdle last year. Now they meet again, but with Zaidpour supported by two stablemates who, like Monksland, are returning from lay-offs, Briar Hill and Glens Melody, the Mares Hurdle runner-up at Cheltenham in March.
If you find it difficult to back any of the three absentees, be warned that all have won reappearance races when fresh. Just check out their form in the Novembers of 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Zaidpour’s fall (literally) from grace at Fairyhouse in November as favourite for the Hattons Grace was in first-time blinkers; they are removed today and the old cheekpieces are back. The runner-up, Jetson, was easy to back and now returns to the distance of his Ladbrokes World Hurdle Series victory over Quevega (At Fishers Cross third, Glens Melody fourth).
Giving away four years, can he avenge his defeat in that Hattons Grace by Lieutenant Colonel, who is a Kayf Tara and seemed to be going further away from them at the finish of the 2m 4f? Snag is, that the race was run at a suicidal pace, and Lieutenant Colonel is still officially rated inferior to both Zaidpour and Jetson.
I’ve looked at it like this: Jetson’s big wins are Punchestown only, and just one nine-year-old has taken this Christmas Hurdle in the decade. You can normally expect something younger to make a play for the Cheltenham crown from this trajectory.
Zaidpour loves the mud and seems to have been forgiven that uncharacteristic fall by Ruby Walsh but I still think that, at six, stablemate Briar Hill is destined for the top. His absence – a cheekbone injury not one to his racing machinery – may be a blessing in disguise, as he is said to be an impressive looker these days. Monksland, on the other hand, is facing a slower form recovery, according to his yard.
Until it is confirmed as true form, Lieutenant Colonel’s Hatton’s Grace is viewed with suspicion. So it’s Briar Hill for me; saver, Zaidpour in the conditions.
2.55 Leopardstown (Lexus Chase) Only once in eight seasons have raiders from England failed to pull out the plum of this lush 150,000-euro–added prize. That was Meade’s Pandorama in 2010, and he is responsible for young pretender Road To Riches here.
Denman also won it at seven years old for Paul Nicholls, who saddles Sam Winner the same age. Against them two Gold Cup winners, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere.
It’s a fabulous contest and mighty clash of the generations, with five runners rated 160 to 167. Clear top-rating , officially, is Bobs Worth on 170, and winner of this last year, but he’s a big stuffy beast who has needed a run back for the last two seasons.
Boston Bob usually wins his return bout. But he was given a drubbing, 29 lengths, by Road To Riches at Down R oyal (First Lieutenant fourth, On His Own jumping poorly) and has never won over 3m on soft or heavy.
Carlingford Lough doesn’t want it too soft and Lord Windermere’s championship form at Cheltenham (both RSA and Gold Cup) is on a much sounder surface than today’s.
Sam Winner seems to has taken some time growing up, and to have been around for ages, but that’s because he was pitched into novice chases three years ago when only four years old.
I hate seeing horses of four and five made to leap the grades so early, but Sam Winner has come through this season after being a nearly horse last year, only fifth in the RSA in March.
Taking him to Ayr afterwards for the Scottish National was another mistake and Paul Nicholls now admits that Sam is a much better animal using his strength from the front in conditions races.
He has looked something special at Cheltenham and Aintree on differing ground. Today’s blinkers could be the final touch, and I will be surprised if we don’t get a new big-time challenger for Cheltenham from either Sam Winner or Road To Riches. They will be my only high-return bets today.
MELVIN THREAT TO MIRAGE AT LINGFIELD
1.15 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap) Grey Mirage has Lingfield form figures of 1233114, two wins from four starts at this class-2 level, including off today’s mark.
His trainer, Marco Botti, turned out four runners at the last Lingfield meeting. Results: 3121. So, form horse; in-form trainer. And it will probably take a year-younger animal to stop him.
Can Melvin The Grate step forward? He’s in terrific form, winning on turf at Haydock (soft) and on Tapeta at Wolverhampton, but he has to translate that to Polytrack this afternoon.
It can be done. Haaf A Sixpence is a soft-ground performer on turf but has won at Lingfield, though he hasn’t done so well since being raised above the 90 mark.
Tigers Tale won the London Mile Final at Kempton in September and was beaten less than a length on the same course after being raised to within a pound of today’s rating.
DAQMAN’S BETS: The usual big-meeting staking plan of win-30 and bull’s-eye bets have been reduced to one race today (the Lexus) because of the state of the ground at Leopardstown (otherwise, no target return; stakes 1 to 9 for strength; 10 is a low-level banker)
BET 2pts win and place on each KASHLINE and TRIPLETS JOY (12.50 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win on each GREY MIRAGE and MELVIN THE GRATE (1.15 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win (nap) SIZING CODELCO and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) UN ATOUT (1.20 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win BRIAR HILL and 1pt win (stakes saver) ZAIDPOUR (1.50 Leopardstown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 9pts win on each SAM WINNER and ROAD TO RICHES (2.55 Leopardstown)
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