ABC BREEDERS’ CUP GOING GUIDE: It’s official! The going at Keeneland for the Friday-Saturday Breeders’ Cup world championships will be soft, and today Daqman dispenses with his usual ABC form guides to take you A, B, C through the Irish, French and English runners for ground preference.
DAQMAN YOUR BIG-RACE WIZARD: The next five days of Breeders’ Cup, Cork Grand National and Melbourne Cup will see more action between weekend-wizard Daqman and his rival, Pricewise, with the season’s scores 100-18. Daqman reached his ton-up target last Saturday, having completed 10 bankers in a row the day before.
CYMRIC ‘SURPRISINGLY’ QUICK OFF SOFT SURFACE
7.30 Keeneland, Friday (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf): England and Ireland has four lining up for this one-mile two-year-olds test on turf, with the going now officially soft.
BIRCHWOOD: Richard Fahey’s colt, third to the top two-year-old Air Force Blue in the National Stakes at The Curragh on a yielding surface, and also third in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood (good to soft), has scored three times since May, all on good to firm.
CYMRIC: The Lagardere runner-up, trained by John Gosden, won on the soft at Sandown, ‘surprising’ jockey James Doyle by quickening up off the surface.
HIT IT A BOMB: Winner on turf (good) and on Polytrack, with Aidan O’Brien quoted as saying: ‘He’s fast so Keeneland will suit but he’s a War Front, so good ground is important to him.’
SHOGUN: sole success for Aidan O’Brien was on good ground at The Curragh, and his sister, Qualify, won only on a sound surface.
EASY-GOING ILLUMINATE! SHE’S BRED FOR THIS..
8.50 Keeneland, Friday (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf): Runners for Aidan O’Brien, Jeremy Noseda and Richard Hannon, who’s forgotten to renew his visa so won’t be there.
ALICE SPRINGS: Third to Minding in the Moyglare but sole success for O’Brien since her maiden was on firm at Newmarket.
ILLUMINATE: Firm-surface hat-trick for Richard Hannon before half-length defeat in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Straightforward sort by Zoffany, whose progeny have a high success rate on the soft.
NEMORALIA: Jeremy Noseda’s American-bred has already raced there, runner-up to Nickname on ‘sloppy’ dirt at Belmont but now switched back to turf. Good-ground winner at Doncaster.
GROUNDS FOR BAWINA TO ENTER THE EQUATION
6.10 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf): Three French, two English and one – one very special! – Irish runner.
BAWINA: Soft-ground Group-race form in France: 112. Good-to-soft or firmer: 4010430. A beautifully-made filly who must have cut in the ground’ (quote unquote trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias).
LEGATISSIMO: David Wachman’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas and Nassau Stakes winner scored on a yielding Leopardstown surface on the last day but her fame and fortune has been made on good or quick ground.
MISS FRANCE: 2014 Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winner for Andre Fabre has been steered to better ground throughout her career, though not disgraced on Deauville soft last year.
QUEEN’S JEWEL: Won on her racecourse debut on ‘very soft’ surface. Kept to good going since, including when winning the Saint-Alary in the Spring, but sire Pivotal known for soft-ground progeny. Freddy Head.
SECRET GESTURE: It was yielding at Arlington when she was first past the post in the Beverley D. Won on heavy as a juvenile and firm as a four-year-old for Ralph Beckett.
TALMADA: Neither her CV nor her breeding suggest that soft ground will help. Winning form on good and firm(ish). Roger Varian.
MAKE BELIEVE EXPECTED TO REVEL IN THE MUD
7.30 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup Mile Turf): With the going for their horses so often soft, the French seem to dominate the Mile.
ESOTERIQUE: Won the Jacques le Marois on very soft and the Sun Chariot on firm. Andre Fabre also runs Make Believe.
IMPASSABLE Has scored for Laffon-Parias with give in the ground twice, including on very soft at Chantilly.
KARAKONTIE: The 2014 winner of the French 2,000 Guineas took the Breeders’ Cup Mile on firm at Santa Anita. Modest in just two runs on ‘very soft’ ground this season but won the Lagardere on soft as a juvenile.
MAKE BELIEVE: Fabre’s French 2,000 Guineas winner revels in soft ground and his only bad run was when last of five on the fast Royal Ascot surface behind Gleneagles.
MONDIALISTE: A winner twice with cut in the ground when trained in France but beaten on soft and kept to a sound surface by David O’Meara until winning the Woodbine Mile (yielding) in Canada, which was his passport to the Breeders’ cup.
TIME TEST: ‘Really quick ground suits.’ That’s a past quote from trainer Roger Charlton, who won the Tercentenary with him at Royal Ascot (fast).
JUST A LENGTH TO BE FOUND ON GOLDEN HORN!
8.50 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup Turf): Frankie Dettori has shrugged off a bad draw and the onset of rain. Is he the invincible No 1 from stall one?
FOUND: Twice a winner at The Curragh for Aidan O’Brien on soft-heavy. Just a length behind Golden Horn on Leopardstown yielding (10f) but five lengths behind at Longchamp, good (1m 4f).
GOLDEN HORN His Dante, Derby and Eclipse hat-trick came on good-to-firm surfaces, and it was good ground again when he stormed the Arc. But in between was defeat on good to soft at York and a narrow put-own of Found at Leopardstown (yielding).
TODAY: THERE’S A CRAZY-HORSE NAP AT LINGFIELD
2.20 Lingfield Seven lengths off Simple Verse would be enough; three lengths off Jack Hobbs plenty! That’s the form of Hugh Morrison’s Sweeping Up, who could gain compensation in this Listed this afternoon.
Saeed Bin Suroor has won it three times in six seasons – the only trainer to score with an older horse – but three-year-olds are seven out of nine, which counts against his Desert Snow and is the worry if you’re backing Sweeping Up, a huge 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
The market suggests that Sweeping Up’s sole danger is California (4.8 offers), who is stepped up in trip to try to get some black type.
2.50 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Handicap) Saeed Bin Suroor also does well in this but it’s a worry that Hold Tight is having only his second race in public.
Time Flies and the lazy grey Crazy Chic (6.6 on BETDAQ as I write) are other late developers but with more experience. Time Flies has an awkward head carriage and, though ‘lazy Crazy’ has won only in class 4, may be his style of only doing only enough disguises a better class of animal.
3.20 Lingfield Another cracking contest. And yet another one-off touch attempt by Saeed Bin Suroor, whose Very Special filly has raced only once in the last year and then in only a four-runner race here over CD at Kempton. But she was impressive that day and has needed time to grow into herself.
If you think Bin Suroor must surely win with one of this three – Desert Snow (2.20), Hold Tight (2.50) and Very Special – there’s plenty of value in the BETDAQ offers to allow you to follow them, stop at a winner. Don’t forget to add any losing stake to your profit-yield target as you go along, race by race.
Lamar should make it a true test, the likely front-runner if she gets away with the others. Pack Together looks sure to be thereabouts but difficult to win with.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength)
BET 5pts win CALIFORNIA, 2pts win and place SWEEPING UP (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win (nap) CRAZY CHIC (2.50 Lingfield)
BET 7pts win VERY SPECIAL and 2pts win PACK TOGETHER (3.20 Lingfield)
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