11.5 DOUBLE-YOUR-MONEY WINNER: Daqman’s run of BETDAQ-value winners this week continued yesterday when he landed the Brighton Mile with Mime Dance, a 5-1 success from 11.5 taken when he made his selections at morning offers under the heading ‘Mime Dance Is A Mile High at 11.5’.
Check out his gambles in the last four days
Silk Sari (WON 9-4 from 5.0)
My Meteor (WON 8-1)
Almagest (WON 3-1 from 6.0)
Mime Dance (WON 5-1 from 11.5)
16.0 CHALLENGE CUP OUTSIDER: Today he picks the best races from Brighton, Sandown and Yarmouth, trying to add a 16.0 shot in the Brighton Challenge Cup to his Mile winner. But first a warning about ante-post Ebor betting.
PALLASATOR NO CERT FOR A PLACE
Don’t be an ante-post lemming. The one thing not to do when betting well in advance of a race is to follow the market. Certainly not the Ebor Handicap gamble on Sir Mark Prescott’s Pallisator.
The golden rule of ante-post betting is to try to get a position on something likely to crash down in price so that you have value, come the day, and can trade some of your ‘overs’ to create a win-win situation or, at the very least, a can’t-lose.
Taking 3-1 about Pallisator with the bookies in, currently, a ‘field’ (well, the hitherto acceptors) totalling 76, is punting madness, win or lose. The ‘true odds’, since the Ebor is a handicap, and they should all finish level, are 75-1.
In fact, those higher in the weights are more likely to get into the race, and are considerably less than that, and those lower than half way in the current card have very little, if any, chance of running.
So the odds about some of them could be 999.0 for a race which had only 14 runners last year. And those about Pallisator and Co, who are in the sure-to-get-in top dozen or so, will be in the region of 12-1 ‘true.’
Ok, give me a bit of that 12-1, you taunt! Well, first of all, I wasn’t talking about the odds of form probability in a horserace. They would be less than that.
But not a great deal less, if the stats are to be believed. No horse has won the Ebor with more than 9st 4lb since Sea Pigeon in 1979. No five-year-old in that time with more than 9st 2lb. Pallasator appears on the card as 5-9-8 and (oops!) carries a penalty, also in defiance of the stats.
Doesn’t even sound like a confident 3-1 place bet to me! But more about that in the Daqman ABC Guide nearer the day. I’ve had the winner of six big races from the top end of an ABC check-list recently, though a handicap is harder.
By the way the Racing Post story intros that the race is run on Saturday week. They’ve lost you your holiday month there! It is, in fact, at York on Saturday fortnight, August 23.
NAPPING ANOTHER GOSDEN ‘STAR’
2.30 Yarmouth Keep your Daq up! You need to follow the market in this opener. There’s been hot punting for eight consecutive seasons, with the SP favourite’s form 11111411.
William Haggas’s Darej caned the ring on his debut in this in 2010, backed in to 2-1 on. His first-start runner here, Tadqeeq, is bred more for a stamina test.
He’s one of a trio – Arthur Martinleake and Quite Smart are the two others – which have some fancy future entries. ‘Arthur’ is favourite as I write, but a ‘new favourite’ is what I look for in these races; something coming down in price nearer the ‘off’.
4.00 Yarmouth Haggas goes for a hat-trick in this race, with two more gambles landed for the yard in the last two seasons.
We’ll certainly have to see the colour of connections’ money before risking Buredyma against Joys Of Spring after her flop last time, with the Cumani filly likely to find out the others from the front.
But I couldn’t help feeling that Haggas is so dominant at Yarmouth, with a 28% strike rate, and has done well in both the races I have featured, that there’s something to be had from betting his pair, stop at a winner.
3.50 Brighton (Challenge Cup) We won the Mile yesterday at 11.5 on BETDAQ, and it would be nice to follow up with the Challenge Cup winner.
The trainers in form are Shaun Harris, Gay Kelleway, Roger Charlton, Ed De Giles, Gary Moore and Mark Johnston.
Ed De Giles’ skills are well advertised by Men Don’ Cry, who has improved a stone in six weeks this summer as a five-year-old. Even M. Stoute would be proud of that achievement with an older horse.
Men Don’t Cry goes up 5lb at the end of the week so this is an attempt to get in under the radar, with Oisin Murphy taking the mount.
You’d expect ‘the Johnston’, Notarised, to take them along at a decent clip but, in fact, he’s set modest targets from easy leads in his last two starts
I can see Hi Note taking him on for the lead, with Men Don’t Cry (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) joining issue with two furlongs to go. I like the booking of Richard Hughes to settle local horse The Holyman and come with a run at 16.0.
6.15 Sandown Oisin Murphy, who partners Men Don’t Cry at Brighton, showed with a double on the Kempton card on Tuesday and that cracker for me yesterday on Andrew Balding’s, Mime Dance, that the loss of his claim has taken no shine off his polished performance as a jockey.
Murphy comes on from Brighton , reuniting with Balding here at Sandown on the first-time hooded Lizzie Tudor, who returns after a long break.
Lizzie (8.0 on BETDAQ this morning) campaigned right up to Listed level last season but plummets in class here, with the hood an indication that they want this reappearance run in the bag, while she has forgotten all about the pain and effort required by racing to win.
Progressive three-year-olds probably present the biggest threat and Voyageofdiscovery has a similar profile in that early promise had him step up to class 2 but he’s back in his winning grade now, only 5lb higher.
7.25 Sandown The three lightly-raced winners last time out, down the card Hoop Of Colour (Lady Cecil), Mythical Madness (Charlie Appleby) and Prince Of Stars (John Gosden), should have this, one or t’other.
Lady Cecil’s losing run continued last night when Grasped failed by a short head to land odds of 5-4 on at SP in the opening BETDAQ sponsored race at Kempton.
And Charlie Appleby’s early flood of winners has dwindled to a current 4-40 in the last 15 days, much less cost effective for the punter than the figures for the all-conquering Gosden.
His Prince Of Stars continued the rise and rise of Sea The Stars as a stallion when winning at Chester, despite still looking green. The runner-up franked the form at Goodwood. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win TADQEEQ (2.30 Yarmouth), if lose 11pts win BUREDYMA (4.00 Yarmouth)
BET 2.7pts win MEN DON’T CRY, and 1.3pts win and place THE HOLYMAN (3.50 Brighton)
BET 2.8pts win LIZZIE TUDOR and 1pt win (stakes saver) VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY (6.15 Sandown)
BET 10pts win (nap) PRINCE OF STARS (7.25 Sandown)
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