MUCHAS GRACIAS, AMIGOS! DAQMAN GRABS BETDAQ VALUE FOR THE THYESTES: Daqman thanks the BETDAQ layers for 15.5 On His Own and 9.2 Los Amigos for today’s big race, the Thyestes Chase, at Gowran Park in Ireland.
DAQ MULTIPLES CAN MAKE A FORTUNE: His nap is at Warwick and, in keeping with his third selection, Make Me A Fortune at Fakenham, he tries some Daq Multiples to send his profits soaring.
Can you win a nest-egg from the Thyestes? The difference in the nature of the race over the years may be expressed by comparing two winners in the good old bad old days – Arkle and Flyingbolt –with two in recent history, Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.
The one pair of aces suggest that this was a major Cheltenham trial, the most recent duo that it’s a stepping-stone to Aintree.
So, if you hope to take out a horse for the future, you should be thinking of staying handicaps, particularly from today’s renewal (3.15 Gowran Park) when the ground is heavy.
In the Thyestes itself, only one horse has won in the decade with more than 10st 10lb to carry and, though the first three that day in 2011 when Seigemaster scored were set between 11st and 11st 7lb, the result had something else to say about that renewal of the race.
It suggested that the bottom half of the handicap was rubbish. It was. The next four home subsequently won only one race among the lot of them.
But Willie Mullins, who has taken this four times, always with a comparatively young horse – eight or nine years old – has the two top weights today.
Are they, like 2011, so superior that they can outclass the lower ranks for a stable which won the last big handicap in Ireland, the Dan Moore Memorial, on Sunday?
On His Own won the Thyestes off 125 in 2012 and the stats say that three horses in the 15 years to 2009 did the double. And, like him, six of the last seven winners had been in the frame in a Graded chase.
That applies only to Balnaslow, Cootamundra and On His Own, all in the 10st 11lb to 11st 6lb range today, which suggests that the bottom half is devoid of class, as in the Seigemaster year.
On His Own’s form is disguised since his Thyestes success, because of his attempts at the Grand National fences – fell at Aintree in 2012, sixth in the Bechers recently – and because he’s run three times over hurdles, one of them a win off 144.
On His Own has run only 17 Rules races in his life. Vesper Bell, seemingly Ruby Walsh’s choice of the Willie Mullins’ pair, has had only seven tries over fences but has failed to complete the last twice.
Groody Hill (first-time hood), Rich Revival and Oscars Business (reserve) are not out of it if they can recoup their old form. Like Vesper Bell, Panther Claw may yet fill his potential, and has first-time visors today.
But that pair have both disappointed and the old standby ‘if in doubt look for a lightly weighted improver’ points distinctly to Los Amigos, who jumps and stays well despite his age, and gets more than a stone from the Mullins’ pair.
BETTING VERDICT: The class horse, form disguised, is On His Own, yet he’s 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning. The lightly-weighted improver is Los Amigos (9.2).
You could back Groody Hill (12.5), a one-time Troytown winner on testing ground, sneaking in off 10st 7lb with a hurdles return.
But he may bounce from that hurdles run after such a long absence, and today’s hood suggests there is more than one problem. Christy Roche’s winners are very few and far between these days, and Tony McCoy, the owner’s first jockey, stays in England for modest mounts.
Like the Groody Hill hood, visors on Panther Claw (15.0 but he’s so slow) could bring about the necessary transformation, though his yard is badly out of form.
Vesper Bell (9.2) is another who’s disappointed; however is seemingly Ruby Walsh’s pick. The other Mullins’ runner, Ballnaslow (10.5), has shown some class but is short in the market, when you consider that he has to prove himself on the ground.
‘He’s bred for a better surface’, Mullins agrees. I’ll best guess that the Mullins yard may get two in the frame, split by Los Amigos.
DAQMAN’S THYESTES CHASE ORDER-IN: 1 Los Amigos, 2 On His Own, 3 Vesper Bell.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 each)
BET 6.5pts win MAKE ME A FORTUNE (1.30 Fakenham)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT (1.50 Warwick)
BET 2.4pts win LOS AMIGOS, and 1.3pts win and place ON HIS OWN (3.15 Gowran Park)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles the four listed above.
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