NOW IT’S 10 HIGH-STAKES WINS IN A ROW: Rosie Probert (WON 2-5) was a short price yesterday – unless you backed her on BETDAQ early – but she did the business (just!) and made it 10 consecutive wins for Daqman double-figure bets and lays.
FIVE BANKERS UP OUT OF SIX: She was the fifth winning banker from the last six (1011111), winning nap number eight from 10 (1111110211) and high-stakes win number 15 out of 17 (1101101111111111), including two lays (11), as follows:
WON 10-11 (July 17): 10pts ALONG AGAIN
WON 1-2 (July 18): 20pts TELESCOPE (banker nap)
WON 11-4 (July 18): 10pts GHASABAH
Unplaced (July 19): 20pts THUNDER STRIKE (banker nap)
WON 3-10 (July 19): 20pts MAPUTO (banker)
WON 5-4 (July 20): 15pts WAILA (nap)
Unplaced (July 20): 10pts RIPOSTE
WON 5-4 (July 21): 12pts DANK (nap)
WON 6-4 (July 21): 13pts STRONGLY SUGGESTED
WON 5-4 (July 22): 10pts DJINNI (nap)
WON 5-6 (July 23): 20pts CUT THE CARDS (banker nap)
WON 6-4 (July 23): 12pts BENNACHIE
WON 8-15 (July 24): 10pts ROSIE PROBERT (nap)
WON 3-10 (July 25): 20pts PORTRAIT (banker nap)
WINNER (July 25): 10pts MARS (lay, 2nd 8-11)
WINNER (July 27): 10pts CIRRUS DES AIGLES (lay, 0)
WON 2-5 (July 29): 20pts ROSIE PROBERT (banker nap)
1.55 Goodwood This is Mark Johnston’s meeting and this is one of his races: he’s had three winners in seven years (form figures 14-1041), and his pair, Fennell Bay (5) and Reset City (9), are both drawn on the rail.
The 1m 4f winner Fennell Bay (14.5 on BETDAQ as I write) is likely to set the pace, or be among the front-runners, and will be staying on up the hill. He seems to act on soft or firm. He beats Nabucco on a line through Strictly Silver.
With rain forecast, Fast or Free and Blue Surf are at the front of the market. Whether it arrives in time for them, I cannot tell. It was still fine over my cornflakes.
Labarinto (13.0 offers on BETDAQ) drops back from the pattern. Won his last handicap over today’s trip and is not ground dependent.
2.30 Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes) It’s been the Channon-Hannon show: they’ve shared four of the last eight winners, Channon’s both 14-1, Hannon’s both favourite.
Royal Ascot has supplied five of the last 10 winners: second (twice) and fourth in the Windsor Castle, fifth in the Norfolk (twice). Ambiance was fourth in this year’s Norfolk.
Supplicant and Anticipated were second and third in the Windsor Castle and, though Anticipated finished only fifth in the Prix Robert Papin (Ambiance just behind) nine days ago, Ryan Moore – three out of four for the stable this year – regards Supplicant as his best chance of the day, and the Windsor Castle fifth won a Group 3 at Deauville on Sunday.
3.05 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes) The four six-year-olds have no chance on the stats (no winners over the age of five, 50% success for three-year-olds).
Richard Hannon, who’s won it twice in the last five seasons, makes a mess of it for punting by saddling three, though Richard Hughes followers will inevitably side with CD-winner Producer, as he has done on the basis that he’s ‘flying at home’.
Aljamaaheer and Krypton Factor want it to stay firm and a factor for the July Cup third is that he will need covering up over the extra furlong.
Top rated over Aljamaaheer is Caspar Netscher, who goes well fresh but that’s why he’s been a Spring horse, and he’s hard to fancy after nearly a year off. An easier surface would help Garswood, disappointing since the Craven Stakes but still ‘winning races’ at home.
Fencing is another at his best when fresh but you have to bet he will turn around May form at Newbury with Aljamaaheer.
3.40 Goodwood (Summer Stakes) No winner below 9st in the decade and only one shorter than 5-1 or bigger than 7-1 in the last seven years. Put those stats together and they suggest that a quality handicapper well exposed to punters will win this.
Oriental Fox, a Mark Johnston seems to be the one they want, moral winner over the Goodwood CD in May, giving away weight but beaten only a neck.
Oriental Fox (6.4 on BETDAQ this morning) was runner-up in the Northumberland Plate, then put away for this race. Guarantee (13.0) ran well dropped from the pattern in his first handicap since being gelded.
Rain would enhance the chances of improver Duke Of Clarence but also Ardlui, Camborne (goes well fresh), Harris Tweed and Suraj.
4.15 Goodwood The stats suggest that being drawn at the high end of the stalls is beneficial, and stables with the three highest have all won the race before: Sacha Park (Hannon in 11), Lyn Valley (twice-a-winner Johnston in 12) and Brazos (Brittain, a winner before at 50-1, is in 13).
Sacha Park was sixth in the Windsor Castle Stakes, and the form of that could be boosted in the Molecomb earlier.
4.50 Goodwood When you price up this race, you would normally add a few points to everything drawn over 11. In the last four seasons, not one horse has reached the frame from a higher stall: 9 of the 12 placed were from single figures.
But that’s not to say the high draw can’t be overcome. That ferret Fremen weaved his way through to win (2007) from stall 19. So, if you bet from the high numbers, you need one that is not frightened by other horse, one that has battled through a pack before.
And, hey presto, Head Of Steam, Juvenal and Bronze Prince have all done just such a Houdini act, locked away but wriggling free to emerge the winner!
There is precious little between Head Of Steam and Bronze Prince on their Goodwood first and fourth in May, but Bronze Prince – better off at the weights – has won over a mile.
So, too, Juvenal (a massive 25.0 on BETDAQ) in a lower grade. But his style of running is perfect for this, and he has Ryan Moore in the saddle.
On the rails, from stall 3, the other Hannon runner, Democretes (14.5), crying out for this mile, ran an excellent finish over 7f on the course in the Spring but was blocked for room in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Also well placed for this (two recent winners were drawn 11) is Bancnuanaheireann (11.5 offers), who also loves a crowd of opponents around him.
5.25 Goodwood This is hardly a getting-out stakes, more a getting-in-deeper potential disaster. Low numbers are expected to prevail but Fair Value should take the high side along from 20.
Fair Value (16.0 on BETDAQ this morning) was suited by Epsom so should appreciate the similar downhill start and uphill finish at Goodwood.
Arctic Feeling (18.5, rain would help) has won in higher grade and success at Epsom suggests he will enjoy this track. So we have Kieren Fallon and have Paul Hanagan on our side.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points each).
Value Bets are where the BETDAQ orange offers added up to between 100 and 104% this morning. Gold Value is where Daqman opposes the favourite in such a race.
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.5pts win LABARINTO and 2.2pts win FENNELL BAY (1.55 Goodwood)
VALUE BET: 9pts win (nap) SUPPLICANT (2.30 Goodwood)
VALUE BET: 8.5pts win ALJAMAAHEER and 6.5pts win PRODUCER (3.05 Goodwood)
VALUE BETS: 5.5pts win ORIENTAL FOX and 2.5pts win GUARANTEE (3.40 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2.8pts win BANCNUANAHEIREANN, 2.2pts win DEMOCRETES, and 1.25pts win and place JUVENAL (4.50 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2pts win FAIR VALUE and 1.7pts win ARCTIC FEELING (5.25 Goodwood)
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