STAR TOP YORK OAKS TRIALIST: Daqman previews the Oaks today, analysing the two trials in France and at York, where the Musidora seems to offer a new star among the fillies. The rest of the best on the York card is concerned with some hot sprints.
DAQMAN 26-5 UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman pits his tipping skills against Pricewise again. Daqman is romping so far clear, we missed out his 2,000 Guineas win in Paris (Make Believe WON 6-1) when giving the score yesterday. It should be 26-5. Today’s clashes: 2.10 and 2.40 York.
IT MUST BE SEVILLE IN THE BETDAQ ORANGE!
12.30 Saint-Cloud (Prix Cleopatre) She cost five million guineas but was beaten by her own pacemaker as a two-year-old.
The reputation of Epsom-Oaks-bound Al Naamah needs a big boost from this trial (on a sound surface today). That cruel pacemaker, Shahah is also in the line-up for Andre Fabre, who bids for Cleopatre win number 13.
Whatever happens today, Little Nightingale is likely to stay at home for the Prix Diane, but both English and French Oaks candidates should beware Stay The Night, winner of only minor races in the French Provinces but backed by the stable of the French Mr Shrewdie, Jean-Claude Rouget.
3.45 York (Musidora Stakes) Sariska (2009) was the last filly to do the Musidora-Oaks double. Before that Reams Of Verse (1997) but one in between, (Islington 2002), was the best filly this century never to win an Oaks.
In the decade, Alexandrova (2006) was second in today’s trial before winning at Epsom, and two other recent Oaks winners, Look Here (2008, Lingfield Oaks Trial) and Dancing Rain (2011, Swettenham Stud Trial), were also runners-up, not winners, of their trials.
The Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket, won this month by Jazzi Top, has thrown up the last two Oaks winners, Talent and Taghrooda, while the Cheshire Oaks – this year’s winner Diamondsandrubies – has scored with Light Shift (2007).
Still to come is the Height Of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood (last Oaks winner Snow Fairy, 2010) and, of course, today’s contest, in which Aidan O’Brien has so far drawn a blank.
Second would do, if Alexandrova is anything to go by, and his Fillies Mile winner (by Galileo of course), Together Forever, may have to settle for that against an old hand at this race, John Gosden with Star of Seville, favourite in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
Gosden won this back to back with Guineas-fourth The Fugue and Joviality (2011-12), and the clincher for Star Of Seville over Together Forever today may be the 182 days’ difference between their latest starts. And the 4lb Group-1 penalty that Together Forever must give away.
The seasonal debut is not always a bar to success: four of the last 10 Musidora winners were having their first outing of the season.
Keep an eye on Pandora, another daughter of Galileo – she still ‘could be anything’ – with the potential for an ironic defeat of a Ballydoyle Galileo.
HOOD A SIGNAL FOR SATELLITE TO BOUNCE BACK
2.10 York As only to be expected, four-year-olds dominate – six wins out of eight – a race won three years running by Saeed Bin Suroor in the mid-Noughties, with horses rated 94, 95 and 97.
First Flight is on 98 here. He’ll love the sound surface but has suffered three consecutive defeats at this level after winning a class 3.
His 12 stall is not ideal, though you can win from there. But the best draw would be three, four of five off the rails. Otherwise you need a horse with the stamina and zip to come wide (stall 17 has won twice in seven years).
Just such a big galloper who could thunder down the outside is Chancery from stall 13, a winner here in 2013 and back to form at Ripon on the last day.
But the track, trip and wide draw should also suit Mahsoob (in 18), who has massive potential after only two runs (two wins). He could even be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap, and won from the outside draw of all, in 19, at Newbury.
Though beaten off by him that day at the business end, Field Of Fame didn’t have the luck in running and reopposes on better terms. The worry is that he’s had so many problems and has raced only twice as a result.
Master Of Finance likes to lead on turning tracks but stall 14 will make life difficult. Lincoln fourth What About Carlo disappointed at Epsom. One excuse was that he didn’t like being crowded, not a good omen for today’s 20-runner field.
The dark horse could be Satellite, a winner first time last season over this trip, dropped back to it now, with the hood restored that almost gave him a follow-up at Doncaster. Ryan Moore entrusted with the job ride.
2.40 York Older horses over the age of six don’t win, a black mark against Mass Rally, winner of this on his second start in 2013 and going for a repeat two years on.
He tries again off 2lb lower – again on his second start of the season (ran a blinder at Pontefract last month) – though, in fact, he’s won over CD 5lb higher than this.
Blaine, third last year, has won three times at York. Forget his two runs back; he wasn’t wound up for the first and on the last day cut his leg at Newmarket. The 20.0 on BETDAQ is too big.
Stablemate Bogart, a dual winner at York, is on the other side of the stalls, better off here with horses that have beaten him in his last two starts, Jamaican Bolt (withdrawn) and Pipers Note.
A line through Pipers Note gives him the edge on Tatlisu. The four-year-old with the potential is Polybius, but I’ll go with the Kevin Ryan pair on a course they both love.
3.15 York (Duke Of York Stakes) Here’s Aetna who won the previous race last year, a class-2 handicap. He afterwards did take one step forward, for a Listed success, but his best form is on soft.
That also worries me about Gammarth, Jack Dexter, Justice Day, Lightning Moon, Mattmu and Musical Comedy. So many soft-ground winners on this drying day.
It was soft when Astaire was pipped half a length in this a year ago, a fine performance for a three-year-old (the winner had won the Abbaye), but he was back to form in the Abernant at Newmarket on the last day on firm.
Ironically, unlucky horse of that race was Lucky Kristale, who lost a shoe. I think she can close down Astaire here on this ground at the scene of her Lowther Stakes success. Nice bit of 11.5 in my BETDAQ shopping basket.
But the most likely winner is the four-year-old improver Naadirr, who seemed to beat Astaire fair and square at Doncaster.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20pts, but bankers are charged to the account at SP)
BET 5.5pts win MAHSOOB and 2pts win SATELLITE (2.10 York)
BET 2pts win BOGART, and 1pt win and place BLAINE (2.40 York)
BET 4pts win NAADIRR, 2pts win and place LUCKY KRISTALE (3.15 York)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) STAR OF SEVILLE (3.45 York)
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