TODAY: BIG BETDAQ RACES BOOST: Four Betdaq-sponsored AW Flat races at Kempton Park this evening, and some stronger stuff than of late over jumps at Newbury and Ludlow, make for a welcome respite from the small midweek cards that have so demoted the sport recently.
TOMORROW: ABC ON THE LADBROKE: Look for value on Betdaq, urges our man, Daqman, who tomorrow brings you his famous ABC stats and facts guide to the big race of the week, Saturday’s Graded handicap hurdle, The Ladbroke, at Ascot.
BENEFIT FROM AN EARLY BETDAQ POSITION
It’s your turn now. Whatever I did wrong yesterday, I could not have better illustrated the tremendous morning value in the Betdaq orange.
Had you followed mine – should you find some for yourself today – you simply could not go wrong in any given event. With huge ‘overs’ from an early position, the race is yours for the taking.
Imagine you have double, or maybe nearly treble the odds about a horse that’s a 7-1 to 9-1 shot, the difference in the percentages creates a must-win market for you nearer the ‘off’. That’s what happened yesterday with:
7-1 SP Argent Knight (from 15.5 on Betdaq)
9-1 SP Kyllach Me (from 26.0 on Betdaq)
7-1 SP Nelson Quay (from 12.5 on Betdaq)
FROST FITS BUT DON’T FORGET SMALL FRY
Jack looks the big catch. Today at Newbury has always been Nicky Henderson’s meeting, with a shoal of winners that went on to fish for places at Cheltenham festivals past.
But this year, he concentrates solely on hooking the novices’ hurdle (2.45), with Jack Frost and Mister Chairman. Jack’s the one with the form, but we’ve learned recently (see Daqman Archive for Monday December 8) that a big stable’s second-string can often be first past the post.
In fact, all of a heap, Caracci Apache (14-1) beat 3-1 Henderson stablemate Clean Sheet; Vibrato Valtat beat odds-on Irish Saint when the two Paul Nicholls’ runners ran in a four-horse field; and Willie Mullins’ 13-8 favourite, Twinlight, pulled up behind stable companion Felix Yonger in the Hilly Way.
In the last decade, Henderson has had four winners of the opening juvenile hurdle; three in five years in the maiden, including subsequent second and fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham; last year’s winner of this novice hurdle and another one in the bumper.
Walkon, who ran well for a long way in the Grand National, starts the long road back to Aintree – maybe going for the Topham instead this year – in the Graduation Chase (2.15) at Newbury.
Walkon (injury) and Easter Day (colic) need to recover their form after long lay-offs but Easter Day, who beat the subsequent RSA winner O’Faolain’s Boy last year, should be up to winning this before a tilt at the big chase at Leopardstown the day after Boxing Day.
WONDER TO GET DEBUT WIN TONIGHT
5.10 Kempton Park (Betdaq £30 Free Bet Fillies’ Handicap) The form of the opening BETDAQ sponsored race on this evening’s card is hard to decipher. There are several horses in this with little or no solid form to go on.
Boadicee has been disappointing since winning first time up in a Maiden at Leicester however, she has since moved to John Gosden’s yard and this could bring about a change in her. In saying that, she is probably best watched today on her stable debut but a decent run could set her up nicely for his next day at the races.
Oasis Spirit is another that is best watched having burst a blood vessel last time out. She is capable of running a good race but this is a concern.
This leaves me with the top weight, A Legacy Of Love and Hill Of Dreams. The latter appears to prefer slightly further with the majority of her best form coming over a mile despite appearing to be nicely weighted here.
A Legacy Of Love may be the one that has more to offer though. She is quite lightly raced and won a nice Lingfield Handicap in June. George Baker is back on her again this evening and she has run well enough over course and distance previously to get the vote in the opener.
5.40 Kempton Park (Win £10,000,000 on the BETDAQ Colossus Handicap) This is a competitive contest despite lacking in much quality. Costa Filey, Temple Road, Classic Pursuit and Pour La Victoire are all closely matched on BETDAQ this morning.
Despite being well backed last time out, Classic Pursuit disappointed to only finish fourth and although he’s been dropped a pound for that effort, I don’t see him getting much closer tonight.
Pour La Victoire is another that probably needs to drop a couple of pounds in the Handicap before he can get competitive again but it would not be out of the realms of possibility for him to go close but it’s hard to see it.
Both Costa Filey and Temple Road are dropping back in class a little and Temple Road, who is on a sequence of fourths, looks to be the better handicapped of the two. Course and distance should all suit him fine and he may take all the beating.
6.10 Kempton Park (BETDAQ No Premium Charge Maiden Auction Stakes) After two second place finishes, Quest For Wonders seems to have a really good opportunity of getting off the mark in the Maiden. It is difficult to see where any opposition will come from this long odds on shot with the rest of the field showing almost nothing on any of their runs so far.
6.40 Kempton Park (BETDAQ 50% Refund First 3 Months Handicap) Another competitive Handicap to conclude the BETDAQ sponsored races at Kempton for 2014.
Nigel’s Destiny won nicely enough last time out over course and distance beating Semaral into second. He’s been raised four pounds for that effort but looks to be an improving sort and is likely to go close again.
This is a race that is likely to have a good pace early on which should suit Miss Buckshot who generally gets held up. With a strong gallop and a clear run, she will be delivered late and could be a little better handicapped that the former.
At a slightly bigger price, Barnmore may be worth a second look having dwelt coming out of the stalls last time out and a better run is highly likely from him.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength 1 to 9; banker is 10)
BET 8pts win EASTER DAY (2.15 Newbury)
BET 5pts win JACK FROST and 1pt win and place MISTER CHAIRMAN (2.45 Newbury)
BET 3pts win A LEGACY OF LOVE (5.10 Kempton)
BET 3pts win TEMPLE ROAD (5.40 Kempton)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (Nap) QUEST FOR WONDER (6.10 Kempton)
BET 3pts win MISS BUCKSHOT (6.40 Kempton)
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