DONN MCCLEAN: These Nationals don’t get any easier. At least the weight stat thing was borne out in the Aintree and Irish versions, the hypothesis that says that bigger weights are more difficult to carry over extreme distances than they are over shorter ones.
Like, you’d probably find it easier to carry your fridge from your kitchen to your sitting room than from your kitchen to your next door neighbour’s kitchen.
All 13 horses who completed the course in the Irish Grand National on Easter Monday at Fairyhouse carried 10st 9lb or less. Five horses carried more than 11st, and all five were pulled up.
Last Saturday in the Aintree National, seven of the first eight home carried 10st 9lb or less. The weight factor may have been exacerbated by the easy ground, but it was still a factor. And recent history tells us that carrying a big weight is no easier at Ayr than it is at Aintree or Fairyhouse.
Only one horse has carried more than 11st to victory in the Scottish National since Grey Abbey won it under 11st 12lb in 2004. In that time, in those 11 renewals, 10 of the winners carried 10st 9lb or less.
Of course, it may be different this year. Cause Of Causes has the class to win a Scottish Grand National under top weight of 11st 12lb. He got 13lb from the handicapper for winning the Kim Muir, but he won it by 12 lengths, you expected a fair hike.
But 13lb is a lot, you might have expected a little less than that, for a relatively exposed-looking chaser who has raced 16 times over fences. His new British mark of 155 is 9lb higher than his highest ever previous mark over fences. It’s not going to be easy for him.
It is understandable that Measureofmydreams is favourite. Willie Mullins’ horse stays well, he won the Grade 2 Ten Up Chase (albeit somewhat fortuitously) and he put up a big performance to finish third in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. However, he is short in the market, he has a lot of weight to carry, and he has run just three times over fences, so he may lack experience for a big handicap like this one, outside of novice company.
Vyta Du Roc is also interesting, he was a top class novice hurdler last season, and he stayed on well to win the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot on his last run before Cheltenham.
However, he is another who is fairly short in the market and who has plenty of weight. As well as that, he was disappointing in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham on his last run, and Nicky Henderson’s horses are quiet enough of late. The Seven Barrows trainer hasn’t had a win in 21 runs since Buveur D’Air won at Aintree.
It may be that you have to go a fair way down the handicap for the value. Alvarado is interesting at a big price, but A Good Skin is even more interesting at a bigger price. Odds of around 30.0 look big.
Tom George’s horse was well beaten by Cause Of Causes in the Kim Muir, but he is almost twice the price of Gordon Elliott’s horse today, and there are reasons for believing that he can at least close the gap.
The most obvious reason is the weight differential. He got 1lb for his Kim Muir run, but Cause Of Causes got 13lb, so A Good Skin is 12lb better off. 12lb better off for a 12-length defeat could narrow the gap considerably.
Also, the step up from three and a quarter miles could bring about significant improvement from A Good Skin. He didn’t jump very fluently down the back straight at Cheltenham, and he looked in trouble on the run down the hill. No better than sixth at that point, he stayed on really well up the home straight and up the run-in to just snatch second place from Silvergrove.
The Presenting gelding has never been beyond three and a quarter miles in his life. The step up to four miles is a step into the unknown. But he shaped at Cheltenham as if he would appreciate a distance in excess even of three and a quarter miles. He was out-paced by Cause Of Causes – a former Ladbroke Hurdle winner – he was undone by his turn of foot around the home turn before he stayed on again. There could be significant improvement to come from A Good Skin for the step up to an extreme trip.
He is only seven, so he still has scope to improve anyway as a staying chaser. He goes well on good ground, but he was second to Silvergrove on soft ground at Kempton on his last run before Cheltenham, so it wouldn’t be a disaster if it rained a little overnight. Tom George’s horses continue in fine form – he has had three winners and three seconds from 12 runners in the last 10 days – and Paddy Brennan is obviously a top rider. A Good Skin could be significantly over-priced.
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