It’s a Super Sunday at Old Trafford as Man United look to put some breathing room between themselves and the rest of the chasing pack in the hunt for Champions League places. United host Southampton in the re-match of one that got away from the Saints in St Mary’s. In the reverse fixture Southampton utterly wrecked United’s spine, making Louis Van Gaal’s charges look out of their depth for much of the 90 minutes. Yet for all their technical superiority, Southampton came out on the losing end of that one.
On Sunday, I see a change in performances but not a huge one in terms of results. Man United have looked much steadier in the weeks since that fortuitous resulted and enjoy home advantage in this one. Southampton have rallied in recent games, solidifying their credentials as challengers for a top four spot come the end of the campaign. That has done enough to make the price on the home side more appealing from an EPL betting perspective. I like Man United at 1.84 to deliver good value in this one.
The early game on Sunday sees Arsene Wenger under immense pressure to deliver. The Gunners have traditional built up the hopes of Arsenal fans in January before collapsing in February under a glut of fixtures. The first part isn’t going to script so far and Wenger knows his side needs to get moving now to stay in the fight for fourth come May. Stoke visit the Emirates having steadied the ship after a rough run. They probably should be shorter than the generous 8 being offered by the market. Something in the 5.5 to 6 range seems more appropriate. Unfortunately those long odds on Stoke have pushed Arsenal in but there is still value to be had if you blend the narrative with reality. Arsenal are far from confident right now so that makes bettors nervous but they still have too much talent to bet against here. Split the difference and take Draw/Arsenal at 4.4 on the Half-time/Full-time.
Finally the late game on Saturday sees Spurs travelling to struggling Crystal Palace and I thought I was going to have to hunt for value here because Palace are terrible and the visitors should be odds-on. Imagine my delight when the market disagreed. Spurs are favourites for this one but the handicap of playing in another part of London, perhaps punters think the players will be taking public transport, is enough to move them into generous territory. Spurs haven’t lost in the EPL since 3 December, take them as 2.22 favourites.
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