Indianapolis Colts (10-4, 10-4 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4, 8-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -3.5 (55)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable– hamstring), CB Vontae Davis (questionable– groin), OT Gosder Cherilus (out– groin), G Joe Reitz (out– ankle), G Hugh Thornton (out– knee)
Dallas: G Zach Martin (questionable– ankle), RB DeMarco Murray (questionable– hand), OT Doug Free (doubtful– ankle), DT Josh Brent (out– calf), LB Dekoda Watson (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall
Indianapolis is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
The OVER is 6-1 in Indianapolis’ last 7 road games
The OVER is 11-5 in Indianapolis’ last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 3-1-1 in Dallas’ last 5 home games
The OVER is 4-1-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have won 10 games this year and 4 of their last 5 on the road. They’re led by the best young quarterback in the NFL and a defense that has improved tremendously under Chuck Pagano’s watchful eye. They’re simply too good to be getting 3.5 points from a Dallas team that has covered just once in their last 5 home games.
2. Indianapolis ranks 3rd in the league in both total offense and points scored and 1st in pass yards per game. They’ve scored 20 points or more in 13 of their 14 games this season, and this week they’ll be facing a struggling Dallas defense that ranks 22nd in yards allowed, 23rd against the pass, and has surrendered 27 points or more in four consecutive games. The Cowboys seemingly have very little chance of success in this matchup.
3. The Cowboys have lost 3 consecutive home games and they really haven’t been the same ever since Tony Romo cracked two vertebrae in his back several weeks ago. The Colts have improved tremendously on defense this season and have held their last four opponents to just 16.2 points per game, so Romo will have to play exceptionally well for Dallas to have any chance of keeping up with Andrew Luck and the high-flying Colts.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys have responded to a midseason swoon by playing some great football over the past few weeks, as they’ve won 4 of their past 5 games to seize control of the NFC East. Three of those 4 wins have come by double-digits, making the 3.5-point number here a total non-issue. The Colts have dominated some of the league’s lesser teams but they struggle with quality opposition, failing to cover in any of their last four games against teams with winning records.
2. Dallas has an explosive offense that averages over 27 points per game, while the Colts have surrendered 24 points or more eight times this season. Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray leads the NFL in rushing with 1,687 yards, and he shouldn’t have any trouble adding to that total against a Colts defense that allows over 110 rushing yards per game.
3. Indianapolis is extremely one-dimensional on offense– their leading rusher, Trent Richardson, has totaled just 507 yards in 14 games– and that is something the Dallas defense will undoubtedly look to exploit. Teams seem to have figured out the Colts in recent weeks, as Indy has produced 25 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games after doing so only twice in their first 9 games. Plus, their top receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is nursing a hamstring injury and is officially listed as questionable this week.
Prediction
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