New York Giants (5-9, 6-8 ATS) @ St. Louis Rams (6-8, 7-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: St. Louis -6.5 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
New York: RB Rashad Jennings (out– ankle)
St. Louis: None
Recent Trends
New York is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
New York is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
St. Louis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
St. Louis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 19-7 in New York’s last 26 games following a win
The OVER is 5-2 in New York’s last 7 road games
The OVER is 7-1 in St. louis’ last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Giants are playing their best football of the season, winning their last two games by 40 combined points. They always play well against St. Louis, too, covering in each of the last 6 meetings between the two teams. The Rams are coming off a deflating home loss to Arizona in which they managed just 6 points. Not only is 6.5 too many points in this situation, but the wrong team may be favored here.
2. New York has held their last two opponents to 20 combined points, and this week they’re facing a limited St. Louis offense that ranks 26th in both total yards and pass yards per game. The Rams start a career backup at quarterback, a rookie at running back, and their best receiver is Titans castoff Kenny Britt. They simply don’t have the pieces necessary to produce a quality offense, and they shouldn’t be trusted as favorites of nearly a touchdown over an ascending team like the Giants.
3. Eli Manning seems to finally be comfortable in first-year offensive coordinator Bill McAdoo’s scheme, and as a result the Giants have looked like an elite offense over the past month, averaging 28 points per game in their last four contests. Rookie wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has made jaws drop around the league, while New York’s other star rookie, running back Andre Williams, churned out over 140 rushing yards in the team’s last road game. The Giants are clicking on all cylinders on the offensive side of the ball, and it’s going to be tough for Shaun Hill and the St. Louis offense to keep up.
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. Over the past 9 weeks, the Rams have put together a resume worthy of a Super Bowl contender. They’ve notched wins over Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco, and they beat Oakland and Washington by a combined score of 76-0 in Weeks 13 and 14. They’ve been especially good at home, where they’ve won 3 of 4 and have been positively dominant on the defensive side of the ball. New York, meanwhile, has covered just once in their last 5 road games.
2. The Giants have a miserable defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and 30th against the run. They won’t have an answer for Rams rookie tailback Tre Mason, who has come on over the past few weeks after a slow start to the season. Mason has rushed for at least 60 yards in 6 of the 7 games in which he’s been given 14 carries or more, and he’ll likely double that number (both the yardage and carry numbers, probably) against the sieve-like New York defense.
3. The Rams have been frighteningly good on defense in recent weeks, holding their last 5 opponents to just 9.2 points per game. They’re finally healthy again on the line now that Chris Long is back in the lineup, and they’re going to be all over Eli Manning on Sunday. Manning has had turnover issues when pressured throughout his career, so don’t be surprised if the St. Louis secondary pads their stats a bit this week.
Prediction
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