Buffalo Bills (8-6, 8-6 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (2-12, 7-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -7 (40)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: TE Chris Gragg (questionable– knee)
Oakland: DE C.J. Wilson (questionable– knee), CB D.J. Hayden (questionable– back), CB Tarell Brown (out– foot), WR Vincent Brown (out– groin), CB Chimdi Chekwa (out– hamstring), WR Denarius Moore (out– knee), OT Menelik Watson (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
Buffalo is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a win
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games
The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 13-3 in Buffalo’s last 16 games overall
The OVER is 5-2 in Oakland’s last 7 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills have really been playing well lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games despite facing Denver and Green Bay in back-to-back weeks. They easily handled the Packers a few days ago, and now they must keep winning if they want to keep their playoff chances alive. Fortunately for them, the 2-12 Raiders are next up on the schedule, so picking up another win shouldn’t be an issue. And those who are worried about Buffalo covering the 7-point number should know that Oakland is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
2. Buffalo has one of the NFL’s very best defenses, a unit that currently ranks 4th in both yards allowed and points allowed and totally smothered the high-flying Green Bay offense last week. As a matter of fact, the Bills have faced Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers over the past two weeks and have given up exactly zero touchdown passes. They’re now up against an Oakland offense that ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in both total yards per game and points scored, so calling this a “mismatch” would be a bit of an understatement.
3. The Bills are a run-first team that was forced to turn into a pass-first team after injuries to top running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Jackson has been back for a couple of weeks now, though, and Spiller is set to make his return from a broken collarbone on Sunday. That means “thunder and lightning” will be healthy for the first time in several weeks, and they should have a big day against a porous Oakland defense that surrenders over 125 rushing yards per game.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders are still treated like a laughingstock by the NFL-betting marketplace, which is why they’re a 7-point home ‘dog this week against a very average Buffalo team. The truth, however, is that Oakland has proved over the past few weeks that they are not to be taken lightly, especially at home. They’ve now won 2 consecutive home games and those wins both came against teams with winning records (Kansas City, San Francisco). Next up is a Bills team that hasn’t won on the road since Week 8.
2. Oakland has steadily improved on defense over the course of the season and they’re now pretty feisty on that side of the ball, as they’ve held three opponents to 20 points or fewer in the past month. They should be able to build on their recent success against the underwhelming Buffalo offense, a unit that ranks 24th in total yards per game and has produced 17 points or fewer in 4 of the team’s last 5 road games.
3. The Raiders have stumbled onto gold in the form of young running back Latavius Murray, an explosive 2nd-year player out of Central Florida who has single-handedly revived the long-dormant Oakland rushing attack. Over his last four games Murray has rushed for nearly 300 yards on 43 carries, and this week he’ll face a Buffalo defense whose weakness is stopping the run.
Prediction
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