7-5 UP DAQMAN HITS 60 POINTS: Punters were treated to all three winners in the Saturday big races, as the Daqman v Pricewise duel ended with an extended lead, 7-5, to Daqman, who made 60 points profit on the day.
ASCOT BANKER A SAINT AT 6-5: Daqman delivered five winning bets to add to three on Friday, including his 20-point banker, Irish Saint (WON 6-5), as he found nine of the horses in at the finish, with a one-two twice at Ascot, forecasting:
WON 9-2 Ballygarvey
2nd 5-1 Ulck Du Lin (23-1 Ladbrokes SF)
WON 3-1 The Young Master
2nd 9-2 Houblon des Obeaux (16-1 Ladbrokes SF)
FEEL THE 5-1 DAQMAN POWER: He then gave first and third in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock, with Broadway Buffalo (WON 5-1) and Fill The Power (3rd 5-1), and his 1-2-3-4 order in for The Ladbroke included:
WON 14-1 Bayan
4th 5-1 Shelford
TASTE OF CHRISTMAS TREATS: Today (King George) and tomorrow (Welsh National) Daqman gives you just a taste of the treats in store over Christmas. He’s picking from three Sunday meetings and three more on Monday. There are then three days off before the big Boxing Day bonanza on Friday.
CONTI CAN JOIN MAGIC KING GEORGE DOZEN
It’s like turkey warm-ups most years on Boxing Day. Just 11 horses have shared 28 King Georges since 1972, the same dish served up year on year by champion steeplechasers extraordinary.
The illustrious 11 were Pendil, Captain Christy, Silver Buck, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, The Fellow, One Man, See More Business, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Long Run.
And the big question is: can Silviniaco Conti from the champion stable of Paul Nicholls do the double and join this great Kempton roll of honour?
Nicholls has been responsible for two of those sequence horses in the race, See More Business (1997 and 1999) and five-time winner Kauto Star (2006-9 and 2011).
Silviniaco Conti gave Nicholls his sixth King George in eight years when accounting for Cue Card and Al Ferof last Boxing Day.
The ratings for next Friday’s renewal have him on 174 to 172 for Cue Card, 169 Wishfull Thinking, 168 Menorah, 167 Dynaste and a notional 158 the Irish challenger, Champagne Fever.
BON A NONE BET
Depending on where you are reading the column today, I think it’s been fairly mild for this time of the year.
But the ground is testing across the three venues – soft in places at Fakenham and heavy at both Thurles and Lingfield where they stage a jumps card with an all-weather bumper at the end of the card.
I love the jumps at Lingfield but they don’t have much luck on the weather front. The going is in a tight range between heavy and abandoned !!
There’s been plenty of talk about declining field sizes recently and the Fakenham and Lingfield numbers today won’t do much to boost the averages. Excluding the bumper, we are looking at an average field size of 6.5 (prior to any more non runners).
So the ground is the number one factor today (isn’t it always) and the first thing that made me spit out my morning cornflakes (other brands of cereal are available) were the prices for the mares novices hurdle at Fakenham (1.30).
I was surprised to see Bon Chic and Haatefina not closer in the market than the respective 1.71 and 3.25 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
When backing at odds-on you really need to do so on the basis that you have most angles covered. Buying money is OK – but can’t be done blindly – obviously.
I am VERY concerned that Bon Chic will handle the ground as she is totally unproven on a soft surface. It was good to firm when she won last time out at Punchestown !!
Not only that but she has since changed stables and is also making her jumps debut today !
So how many question marks do you need when you are backing odds-on ?
No proven form on the ground
First start for new stable
First run over jumps
Of course, and this is important, it might well be that these variables all end up being positive – but then you are guessing, to some degree, and I don’t like guessing at odds-on.
A safer proposition has to be Haatefina whose limitations are exposed but she is at least consistent at this level and is proven both over hurdles and on the ground.
I think it’s a two horse race and am backing an odds-on shot but not ‘the’ odds-on shot.
Let me explain, I can back Haatefina at roughly the same price on the BETDAQ place market as I can Bon Chic to win and that’s the way I will play the race.
I always feel with place bets you MUST fancy the horse to win – and view the place as a bonus rather than trying to find a horse that will sneak into the places but you don’t think can win.
ALL THE GEAR HAS SOME IDEA
The opening novices hurdle at Lingfield looks a match up between Allthegear No Idea and Buy Back Bob.
Sam Twiston-Davies came in for plenty of criticism for his ride onboard Zarkander yesterday – but the overlooked point for me was that Zarkander lost momentum at the final flight and whilst not a serious error I thought it made the difference.
He should start today in better form onboard Allthegear No Idea who was a course, distance and ground winner last time out and can defy the penalty. Buy Back Bob does have a question mark on the ground and has been well beaten before in two starts with heavy in the description.
In the handicap hurdle at 3.10 Grace And Fortune is up 5lb for finishing second last time out whilst top weight Ascendant escapes a penalty for winning a seller – the vagaries of handicapping ! Even so, I prefer soft ground specialist Grace And Fortune who showed a big return to form at the track last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (rated as stakes from 1 to 9, with 10 for any banker)
BET 9pts win (nap) ALLTHEGEAR NO IDEA (12.40 Lingfield)
BET 9pts place HAATEFINA (1.30 Fakenham)
BET 5pts win GRACE AND FORTUNE (3.10 Lingfield)
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