Seattle Seahawks (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Washington Redskins (1-3, 2-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -7.5 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: OT Alvin Bailey (out– oblique), CB Tharold Simon (out– knee), TE Zach Miller (out– ankle)
Washington: TE Jordan Reed (questionable– hamstring), LB Akeem Jordan (questionable– knee), G Shawn Lauvao (questionable– knee), TE Niles Paul (questionable– concussion), DE Kedric Golston (questionable– groin), OT Trent Williams (questionable– knee)
Recent Trends
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday night games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday night games
Washington is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. NFC opponents
The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 7-1 in Seattle’s last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in Seattle’s last 5 Monday night games
The OVER is 5-1 in Washington’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. Seattle is generally regarded as the league’s best team and they’re coming off two straight mediocre performances followed by a bye week, so they’ll be both rested and motivated for the 1-3 Redskins. Washington’s only win this season came over the NFL’s worst team, Jacksonville.
2. The Seahawks have a fearsome secondary that is chock-full of Pro Bowlers (Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, etc.), and Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has started just 6 games in his career. Cousins is 1-5 in those six starts and he threw 4 interceptions in a Week 4 loss to the Giants, so there’s nothing in his resume that would suggest that he’ll be able to succeed against a defense like Seattle’s.
3. Seattle has been led by their defense for the past few years, but now they appear to have a championship-level offense as well. The ‘Hawks rank 5th in the league in points scored, averaging 27.7 per game, and the emergence of all-purpose threat Percy Harvin has injected some explosiveness into what had previously been a fairly conservative offense. The Redskins have a leaky defense that is surrendering 27.2 points per game, so the Seahawks should be able to pad the stats a bit on Monday night.
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Redskins are a great situational play here: they’re a substantial home underdog in prime-time game and a good “buy low” candidate after back-to-back losses that changed the way they were viewed by the betting public. Plus, they’ve had a “mini bye” after playing on a Thursday night in Week 4, and they could be getting some key contributors back from injuries. Did I mention that they’re a 7.5-point home ‘dog?
2. The Seattle defense has taken a clear step back this season, as they now rank in the bottom-half of the league in both points allowed and passing defense. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 4th in total offense and are averaging over 290 pass yards per game. Washington should be able to move the ball with relative ease in this matchup.
3. While Seattle remains a great bet at home, they’ve been a different team on the road under Peter Carroll. Their only road game this season was a 9-point loss to San Diego and they’re now just 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games away from the friendly confines of Qwest Field. Because their struggles are common knowledge, the Seahawks have been favored by 7.5 points or more on the road just twice in the last 6 years (1-1 ATS in those games).
Prediction
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