New York Jets (3-12, 5-9-1 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (8-7, 7-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -6 (42)
Significant Injuries
New York: S Dawan Landry (questionable– illness), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (questionable– toe), WR Percy Harvin (questionable– ankle), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (questionable– shoulder), C Nick Mangold (questionable– ankle), CB Darrin Walls (questionable– shoulder), S Rontez Miles (out– shin)
Miami: LB Jelani Jenkins (questionable– foot), DE Derrick Shelby (questionable– ankle), G Dallas Thomas (questionable– foot)
Recent Trends
New York is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Miami
New York is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
New York is 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 road games
Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC East opponents
Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-1 in New York’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 13-3 in Miami’s last 16 games vs. AFC East opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets have quietly played some good football in recent weeks, losing by just 1 to Super Bowl favorite New England in their last game, beating Tennessee the week before that, and losing in overtime to Minnesota in Week 14. Prior to that, the Jets hosted this same Miami team in Week 13 and held a 2nd-half lead before falling 16-13. They out-gained the Dolphins in that game and really controlled the action throughout, so they’re certainly capable of pulling off the upset this week. As a 6-point ‘dog, they’re a great value.
2. New York is averaging 145.1 rushing yards per game this season, which leads the AFC and ranks 3rd in the entire league. The Miami defense, meanwhile, struggles against the run, surrendering over 122 yards per game on the ground. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that when these teams met less than a month ago the Jets ran right through the Miami D, totaling 277 rushing yards on 49 carries. Expect more of the same this time around.
3. The Jets have a dominant defense that ranks 6th in yards allowed and 2nd against the run. They’ve been burned by teams with proficient passing offenses, but Miami averages fewer that 235 pass yards per game, as the vast majority of their pass plays are of the “dink and dunk” variety due to quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s continued struggles with the deep ball. The New York defense totally locked down the Miami offense the last time these teams met, limiting them to just 291 total yards.
Three reasons to back Miami
1. This is an obvious mismatch: the Dolphins are a well-rounded 8-7 team with six double-digit wins under their belt. The Jets, on the other hand, have won just three games all season and are led by a coach who cleaned out his office this week in preparation for his impending termination. Besides, these teams met less than a month ago up in New York and the Dolphins were able to pull out a win despite playing one of their worst games of the season. The home team will roll on Sunday.
2. The Jets have a pathetic offense that averages a mere 16.4 points per game and ranks last in passing yards. Their quarterback is Geno Smith, a 2nd-year player who has accounted for a staggering 41 turnovers in 27 career starts. When Smith faced this Miami defense in Week 13 he only completed 7 passes in the entire game, but did manage to throw a pick. The Jets scored just 13 points in that one, which, sadly, is right around their season average. They are not to be trusted on the road against the 8th-ranked Miami defense.
3. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has had a breakout season, throwing for 3,786 yards and 26 touchdowns in the 15 games the Dolphins have played thus far. He’s been steadily improving, too, and last week he torched a solid Minnesota defense for 396 yards and 4 touchdowns. The New York secondary has been a gaping hole in their otherwise solid defense all season, and this week the Jets have 3 safeties and a cornerback all listed as “questionable” with various injuries. A big day from Tannehill and the Miami offense is expected.
Prediction
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
