San Diego Chargers (9-6, 7-8 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-7, 9-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -1 (41)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: G Chris Watt (questionable– ankle), WR Keenan Allen (doubtful– ankle), RB Ryan Mathews (out– ankle), P Mike Scifres (out– shoulder)
Kansas City: WR Dwayne Bowe (questionable– shoulder), RB Jamaal Charles (questionable– hamstring), QB Alex Smith (out– spleen), CB Phillip Gaines (out– illness)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC West opponents
San Diego is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC West opponents
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in San Diego’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 18-6 in San Diego’s last 24 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 8-3 in Kansas City’s last 11 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. This San Diego team has repeatedly shown their grit over the past couple of years, grinding out December wins to sneak into the playoff last season and doing the same thing this year. The latest example was a 21-point comeback win on the road in San Francisco last week, a game the Chargers badly needed to keep their playoff hopes alive. Now, it’s simple: beat the Chiefs this week and they’re in. Considering that they’ve covered in 8 of their past 9 road games against teams with winning records while the Chiefs have lost 4 of 5 overall, I like their chances.
2. The Chargers rank in the top-half of the league in both total defense in points allowed, and this week they’ll face a Kansas City offense that has really been struggling lately. The Chiefs have scored 20 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games and they now rank a dismal 22nd in total offense. Making matters worse, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith has been ruled out of this game due to a lacerated spleen, so backup Chase Daniel will be forced to make his 2nd career start. It’s difficult to imagine the Kansas City offense having much success in this situation.
3. Philip Rivers is one of the very best quarterbacks in the game and he’s in the midst of one of the finest seasons of his career. Rivers has thrown for 3,995 yards and 31 touchdowns, and last week he lit up an excellent San Francisco defense for 356 yards and 4 TDs in a come-from-behind win. This is a huge game, a de-facto playoff game, and bettors have two choices: Philip Rivers or Chase Daniel. It’s a no-brainer if there ever was one.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Chiefs are excellent at home, covering in 5 of their last 6 opportunities, so the chance to back them as a mere 1-point favorite in a must-win home game should not be ignored. Throw in the fact that this week’s opponent is the Chargers, a team that has covered just twice in their last 10 games and has already lost to the Chiefs this season, and a Kansas City bet becomes the only sensible play.
2. The San Diego defense is good in the secondary but soft against the run, ranking 26th in rush yards allowed (125 ypg). That’s bad news against this Kansas City offense, a unit that prides itself on running the football. Led by All Pro tailback Jamaal Charles and capable backup Knile Davis, the Chiefs average over 120 rush yards per game this season and they totaled 154 rushing yards the last time these teams met. The Chargers know what’s coming on Sunday, but there’s nothing they can do to stop it.
3. Kansas City has a dominant defense that ranks 3rd in the league in points allowed and 2nd against the pass. Their lone weakness is defending the run, but only three teams leaguewide have rushed for fewer yards than San Diego, and the Chargers will be without starting running back Ryan Mathews this week due to an ankle injury. San Diego has been struggling on offense lately, scoring 21 points or fewer in 6 of their past 9 games, and this is a terrible matchup for them.
Prediction
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