Indianapolis Colts (12-5, 11-5-1 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (12-4, 8-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -9.5 (53.5)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: None
Denver: LB Brandon Marshall (questionable– foot), DT Mitchell Unrein (questionable– knee), DE Quanterus Smith (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Indianapolis is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 14 points
Indianapolis is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Indianapolis’ last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 6-1 in Indianapolis’ last 7 road playoff games
The OVER is 13-3 in Denver’s last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-2 in Denver’s last 7 playoff games
The OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are getting a whopping 9.5 points here despite the fact that Denver clearly regressed over the course of the season, scoring fewer than 30 points in 5 of their final 7 games. Peyton Manning has either been injured or he’s rapidly aging, no one’s quite sure which, but over the past few weeks he hasn’t lived up to the standard he’s set for himself during his brilliant career. Plus, the Colts are always a good bet when they face the Broncos, covering in each of the last 7 meetings between the two teams.
2. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck led the league in passing this season, averaging over 305 yards per game through the air. On Sunday he’ll be facing a Denver defense that is much better against the run than they are against the pass, so Luck should have plenty of success. The last time these teams met, back in Week 1, Luck threw for 370 yards and 2 touchdowns.
3. The Colts rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense and 6th in points scored. They have the NFL’s best young quarterback, a player who is averaging 384 pass yards per game in 4 career playoff starts. They are the exact type of team you do NOT want to give 9.5 points, which was illustrated perfectly when these teams met back in Week 1, when Denver opened up a 31-10 4th-quarter lead only to see Mr. Luck rally the troops before falling just short, 31-24. If the Colts fall behind in this game they’re going to throw, throw, and throw some more, which is just what you want out of a 7-point ‘dog. A “backdoor” cover is a definite possibility here.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos are 8-0 at home this season and they’ve won 5 of their past 6 games overall. Seven of their 8 home wins have come by 7 points or more. In other words, they’re precisely the type of team that can be trusted with your money, even as a 9.5-point favorite in a playoff game. Besides, they’ve already faced the Colts this year and the game wasn’t particularly competitive, as Denver built a 21-point 4th-quarter lead before pulling back on defense and cruising to a 31-24 win.
2. The Indianapolis offense was red-hot over the first half of the season but they tailed off badly towards the end of the year, scoring 30 points or more just once in their final 8 games. The Denver defense, meanwhile, has been dominant all season, ranking 3rd in total yards allowed and 2nd against the run. It’s difficult to imagine the Colts being able to score enough to keep up with Peyton Manning and the high-flying Broncos.
3. Indianapolis is an easy team to figure out: they win all the games they’re supposed to win (and they usually do it in impressive fashion, going 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with losing records), but they struggle when faced with quality opposition. They’ve covered just once in their last 6 games against teams with winning records, and the last time they went on the road to face a winning team– Week 16 against Dallas– they lost 42-7.
Prediction
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