Dallas Cowboys (13-4, 10-7 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -6 (52)
Significant Injuries
Dallas: LB Anthony Hitchens (questionable– ankle), LB Rolando McClain (questionable– knee), DE Jeremy Mincey (questionable– concussion)
Green Bay: DT Josh Boyd (questionable– knee)
Recent Trends
Dallas is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Dallas is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games
Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games
The home team is 9-2 ATS i the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 7-0 in Dallas’ last 7 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Dallas’ last 5 playoff games
The OVER is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last 8 home games
The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. Incredibly, Dallas is a 6-point underdog here despite winning five straight games and 7 of 8. “It’s probably because the game is in Green Bay,” you say? Well, the Cowboys have been the NFL’s best road team this season, winning all 8 of their road games and covering 7 times. And in Green Bay’s last two games at Lambeau they played their closest home game of the year (vs. Atlanta) and had their lowest-scoring home game (vs. Detroit).
2. The Cowboys rank 7th in total offense and 5th in points scored, so they’ve certainly been explosive on that side of the ball, but it’s been the running game that has carried them, as DeMarco Murray leads the league in rushing and the team ranks 2nd behind Seattle. That should serve them well against a Green Bay defense that has struggled mightily against the run all season, ranking 23rd in rush yards allowed. When the Packers faced the Seahawks, the only team that runs the ball better than Dallas, they surrendered 207 rushing yards and lost the game by 20.
3. The Packers peaked in the middle of the season, at one point winning 9 of 10 games and scoring over 50 points in consecutive weeks. In recent weeks, though, they haven’t played as well. They’ve surrendered 20 points or more in each of their last 4 home games and their offense has been held below 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games overall. That may not be a crisis for most offenses, but it illustrates how the Packers have regressed over the course of the year. They’re ripe for the picking, and Dallas is averaging 37.8 points per game over their last 5 contests, all of which have been wins.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. Lambeau Field has been a house of horrors for visiting teams this season, as the Packers have won all 8 of their home games and have covered 7 times. Dallas has been good on the road this year but they’re always a bad postseason bet, covering just twice in their last 8 playoff games.
2. The Packers rank 1st in the NFL in points scored (30.8 ppg) and their offense is otherworldly at home, averaging nearly 40 points per game. They should have their way with the shaky Dallas defense, a unit that ranks 19th in yards allowed and has surrendered 27 points or more seven times this season.
3. The home team always does well in this rivalry, covering in 9 of the last 11 meetings between the two teams, and we’ve already mentioned how good Green Bay has been at home this season. But the thing that really separates the Packers in this matchup is their quarterback, MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is simply the best in the game, and on Sunday he should absolutely shred a leaky Dallas secondary that ranks 26th against the pass. So, what we’ve got here is an opportunity to back the league’s best quarterback, playing at home, facing one of the league’s worst secondaries, and the home team is favored by less than a touchdown. Sign me up.
Prediction
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