Carolina Panthers (8-8-1, 9-8 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -10.5 (39.5)
Significant Injuries
Carolina: G Amini Silatolu (questionable– knee), S Thomas DeCoud (questionable– hamstring), DT Star Lotulelei (out– foot)
Seattle: TE Tony Moeaki (questionable– calf), DE Demarcus Dobbs (questionable– ankle), CB Tharold Simon (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road playoff games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a tea with a winning record
Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
Seattle is 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 home games
The OVER is 6-1 in Carolina’s last 7 road games
The OVER is 5-0 in Carolina’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-1 in Seattle’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. The Panthers have been red-hot of late, winning 5 straight games by 79 combined points. They’ve faced the Seahawks in each of the past three years (including in Week 8 of this season) and each of those games has been decided by 5 points or fewer, which makes the 10.5-point line in this matchup a little ridiculous. The Seahawks have been double-digit favorites 4 times this season and they’ve only covered once.
2. The Carolina defense has been fierce in recent weeks, holding 5 consecutive opponents to 17 points or fewer. They’ve also had great success against this Seattle offense, limiting the Seahawks to 16 points or fewer in each of the past three meetings between the two teams. Seattle is not explosive offensively– they rank 28th in pass yards per game and have scored 21 points or fewer 7 times this season– so bettors are rightfully questioning whether they’ll be able to score enough to cover a double-digit number.
3. When these teams met in Week 8 the Seahawks eked out a 4-point win, but the game was even closer than many realize. Carolina would’ve pulled the upset if it hadn’t been for a 23-yard Russell Wilson touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining, and that was back when the Panthers were struggling on defense (they surrendered 73 combined points in their next two games). Now that Carolina is back to playing a dominating brand of defense, it’s difficult to imagine the Seahawks moving the ball with any regularity on Saturday. Expect a low-scoring defensive struggle, the type of game where the double-digit ‘dog is the only sensible play.
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks have been the NFC’s best team over the second half of the season, winning 6 straight games and 9 of their last 10. They’re simply much better than Carolina, a team that lost more games than it won during the regular season and snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-game winning streak that featured wins over four sub-.500 opponents and an Arizona team that was playing its 4th quarterback of the season.
2. The Seattle defense has been positively dominant since linebacker Bobby Wagner returned from injury, holding 5 of their last 6 opponents to 7 points or fewer (and surrendering just 14 points in the other game). They rank 1st in both yards allowed and points allowed, and this week they’ll be facing a Carolina offense that ranks 19th in points scored and has produced 20 points or fewer 10 times this season. When these teams met in Week 8 the Seahawks held the Panthers to 9 points and 266 total yards.
3. The Carolina defense is better against the pass than the run, as they allow 112 rushing yards per game. That’s bad news when you’re going up against the Seattle offense, a unit that leads the NFL with 172.6 rushing yards per game. Making matters worse for the Panthers, they’ll be without run-stuffing tackle Star Lotulelei this week due to a foot injury. The Seahawks should be able to do exactly what they want to do on offense.
Prediction
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