Baltimore Ravens (11-6, 8-8-1 ATS) @ New England Patriots (12-4, 9-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -7 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: OT Eugene Monroe (questionable– ankle), DT Timmy Jernigan (questionable– foot)
New England: WR Julian Edelman (questionable– head), CB Brandon Browner (questionable– groin), RB Jonas Gray (questionable– ankle), WR Brandon LaFell (questionable– foot), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff games
Baltimore is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC opponents
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games
The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. Two years ago these teams faced off in the AFC Championship game, same venue, same coaches, same quarterbacks, nearly identical line (New England was an 8-point favorite back in 2013), and Baltimore won the game in convincing fashion, 28-13. The Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl that year and they’re now 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games. The Patriots, on the other hand, have covered just 3 times in their last 13 postseason appearances.
2. The front seven of the Baltimore defense is as stout as ever, ranking 4th in the NFL in rush yards allowed and 2nd in sacks. They’ll make the New England offense one-dimensional and will harass Tom Brady just as they did Ben Roethlisberger last week, sacking the Pittsburgh quarterback 5 times.
3. The Ravens averaged nearly 26 points per game this season and they hung 30 on Pittsburgh last week, so needless to say it’s been a good year for 1st-year offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. New England is vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 17th in pass defense, so expect Joe Flacco to have success throwing the ball downfield, just as he always does against the Pats. Flacco has averaged 284 pass yards per game in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots were the AFC’s best team this season, winning 10 of 11 games before essentially conceding their Week 17 game against Buffalo by pulling starters in the 2nd half. They’re excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top-8 in both points scored and points allowed, and their only home loss this season was the aforementioned Week 17 game. And remember- people keep referencing the playoff meeting between these teams two years ago, but they’ve met since then. It was in Week 16 of last season, as a matter of fact, and New England won the game 41-7.
2. Baltimore simply wasn’t playing well towards the end of the regular season, failing to cover in 4 of their final 5 games and managing fewer than 21 points against teams like Jacksonville, Houston, and Cleveland. The 7-point number in this game has drawn a lot of bettors to the Baltimore side, but those people may be forgetting that 6 of New England’s 7 home wins this season have come by 7 points or more.
3. The Patriots averaged nearly 30 points per game this season thanks to the continued brilliance of quarterback Tom Brady, whose 15th season was one of his best, as he threw for 4,109 yards and 33 touchdowns. On Saturday Brady will face a shaky Baltimore secondary that ranks 23rd against the pass, so the Pats shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball through the air. Last week the Ravens surrendered 334 passing yards in their win over Pittsburgh.
Prediction
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