CHARLES SCHWAB: After two major championships and two Signature Events over the past eight weeks, the PGA Tour takes what feels like a bit of a breather this week at Hogan’s Alley, Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth, Texas, where the Wee Ice Man won five times and his statue adorns the grounds. There’s a different Texan dominating the sport today, and though his footwork might have Hogan rolling in his grave, the moniker “Ice Man” would be quite fitting in describing one Scottie Scheffler.
Yes, Scheffler is in the field this week, just a few days after surviving the pressure cooker at Quail Hollow and coming out on top, as he does so often. There were commentators who said without a hint of irony prior to last week’s event that Scheffler was “under the radar” despite winning his previous start by 8 shots after posting 31-under over 72 holes. Well, he ain’t under the radar here at Colonial, I can tell you that, and given that he’s currently trading at 3.35 to win on the BETDAQ exchange while the next closest player, Daniel Berger, is trading at 24.0, I’m pretty sure he has everyone’s full attention. The Ice Man cometh. Place your bets.
Colonial is a straightforward test that prioritizes accuracy over distance, with tight doglegs, problematic Bermuda rough, and water that comes into play on several holes. Originally designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus in the 1930s and extensively renovated by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner two years ago, it’s a classic-style course that is very much fit for the modern game, as it plays longer than its 7,289 yards due to the many par-4s that force the players to hit their tee shots in the same area. That means it turns into a mid-iron fest, and with only two par-5s there are very few gimme birdies. The golf course always holds its own, with the winning score here hovering between 9-under and 15-under in 7 of the past 8 years. Davis Riley got the job done last year, earning his second official PGA Tour victory, and he’s currently trading at 40.0, which seems like a pretty fair price for a guy with an ascending game who is coming off a runner-up finish in a Major.
All eyes will be on Scheffler this week, however, and with good reason: he’s won his last two starts by 14 combined shots and he’s not yet won three consecutive starts on Tour. It feels like we’re at the beginning of a historic run, doesn’t it? Seems like the smart thing to do is take some of the money he made us last week and re-invest it into him here. I mean, he’s going to win again, right? Right?
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (3.35)- Look, I’m sold. Full-on sold. I’m as sold on Scheffler this week as I have been on any golfer since Jon Rahm at Portstewart years ago, when I opened new accounts all over the world just to get as much down as possible. This feels like one of those weeks: get as much down as possible. Nobody is beating this man over 72 holes on a tight, ball-strikers course in Texas. I simply do not believe it’s going to happen. Scheffler might have been searching for it a bit in the beginning of the season, when he was simply racking up top-5s and top-10s every week and not blowing away fields by 6 and 8 shots, but the pilot light has been lit now and it’s going to burn bright for a while. Follow this generational talent and bolster your bank account. That is my advice.
Maverick McNealy (41.0)- Scheffler could always hurt himself doing household chores or get arrested driving to the course again, and in the non-Scheffler category I like Maverick McNealy, a young guy who is playing the best golf of his career this season and has a really nice history at Colonial, with two top-20 finishes in his past four appearances, including a T17 last year. McNealy has found the top-5 twice in his past five starts, finishing third at both the Texas Open and the RBC Heritage, and he was solid in both the Masters and last week’s PGA Championship, finishing T32 and T33 respectively. If Scheffler falters, McNealy has as good a chance as anyone this week. He’s a blue-chip option and a nice value at 40/1.
Emiliano Grillo (94.0)- After a slow start to the season Grillo seems to have rediscovered his game over the past couple of months, making the cut in 6 of his last 7 starts and logging three top-25s in that span, including a T20 last time out at the ONEFLIGHT Classic in Myrtle Beach. He’s proven to be a threat at Colonial no matter what his game looks like coming into the tournament, with three top-10s and five top-25s in his past 8 appearances, including a victory in 2023, so the fact that he’s been playing well and the putter has actually been cooperating (Grillo is currently 40th in strokes gained putting, his best mark in years) bodes very well for his chances. He’s worth a bet at better than 90/1.
